106
FXAK67 PAJK 141434
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
634 AM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...A couple changes to the ongoing short term forecast,
but changes overall are minor and do not change the ongoing
message: Wednesday morning is the break before the front moving in
Wednesday night. Main changes are related to PoP, with the next
upcoming frontal band to be slightly slower than anticipated, due
to the current ridge over the panhandle being slightly more
robust. Furthermore, run to run trends in deterministic CAMs show
that the warm occlusion struggles to push past the coast
mountains, meaning that a majority of the precipitation will be
localized to the outer coast and southern panhandle. Now, this is
not to say that only these locations will see rain, as the
southeast to south orientation of the moisture flow aloft shows
that even places in the northern panhandle will get accumulating
precipitation. Rather, a bulk of the QPF will be directed at the
southern panhandle and outer coast.


.LONG TERM...By Thursday morning a respectable low will be enveloping the Gulf
of Alaska, with southeasterly gale force winds expected. Mariners
navigating our waters should use caution, especially in the
vicinity of Prince of Wales and Southern Clarence. Here the long
fetch from Dixon Entrance/Hecate Strait will drive fresh, short
period seas of 8 to 10+ ft out of the south southeast. Winds reach
their peak speed Thursday morning, diminishing later Thursday
evening. Friday a broad Rossby wave will be organizing and moving
south and east from the Bering Sea, serving as the parent system
to a developing surface low ejecting into the Gulf of Alaska.
Simultaneously a ridge will slide across the over the Panhandle
into Saturday driving some drier weather and lighter winds for the
evening and into Sunday. While not as energetic as Wednesdays
system, expecting some onshore flow and shower activity to return
later Sunday/Monday as cyclogenesis occurs in the western gulf.
Divergence in agreement between model guidance in position and
depth of the associated surface low is resulting in a few
different wind solutions for our coast, but buy-and-large expect
south-southeast flow below gale force.


&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Thursday/...CIG & VIS conditions will
deteriorate well into the MVFR flight category as rain approaches
& pushes into the Alaskan Panhandle along & out ahead of a
frontal system from northwest to southeast as we progress through
the next 24-hours. SFC winds will be gusty during the day, today,
primarily for the northern Lynn Canal region, including PAGY &
PAHN. LLWS values begin to appreciably pick-up just after the end
of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Eastern Gulf of Alaska...Fairly quiet weather in the gulf during
the morning hours today, with light air to light breezes
throughout the eastern gulf. This will be the short transitionary
period between the prior W flow, and the switch to SE later in the
morning. SE winds will increase throughout the day, maximizing in
the evening with near gale to gale force winds along the NE to E
coastline. Highest wind speeds are along the NE gulf coast, with
areas next cape Suckling exceeding 35 knots. Similar with
waveheights, seas will build to between 10-16 ft with higher
amounts near Cape Suckling, during roughly the same period of time
as the front.

Inside waters...Light air in the inner waters with the exception
of northern Lynn Canal, due to a tight but relaxing gradient in
the northern panhandle. Expect deteriorating conditions beginning
in the afternoon. Expect for wind speeds to pick up in Chatham
Strait first, and expand eastward by the evening. As a mesoscale
feature moves up from the south, wind speeds will increasingly
become easterly in nature, with Peril Strait, Fredrick Sound, and
Icy Strait being the highlights. One certainty with this forecast
as how far the winds will extend into Stephens Passage, which will
change depending on how far the additional mesoscale feature will
move northward. Not expecting any sustained winds above a strong
breeze, except out of ocean entrances

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-053-641>644-651-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC

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