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FXAK67 PAJK 311447 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
647 AM AKDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.UPDATE...
An isolated marine layer has developed during the early morning
hours over parts of the Icy Strait Corridor and Lynn Canal,
resulting in MVFR cigs down to 2500 feet. Conversely, the marine
layer in the southern panhandle has started to decay, resulting in
improving visibilities and CIGS across that area. Through the
latter half of the morning, expect both areas to significantly
improve, and reach VFR conditions as daytime heating dissipates
the marine layer segments.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Persistent high pressure
over the central Gulf of Alaska continues to drive the forecast
for the latter half of the weekend. The result is mostly clear
skies for many areas with warm and dry weather being the norm.
Throwing a wrench in this overall pattern is marine layer low
clouds and fog here and there. This morning it is Southern
Clarence Strait, Ketchikan, and Annette Island that are dealing
with some lowered visibilities and ceilings as a light southerly
wind there pulled some fog in from Dixon Entrance overnight. Dense
fog advisories were issued with both Ketchikan Airport and
Metlakatla sea plane base reporting 1/4 mile or less visibility.
The fog should diminish this morning with the heating of the day.

Otherwise expect another warm dry day across the panhandle with
high temperatures reaching into the upper 60s and 70s this
afternoon. Sea breeze circulations will be active again this
afternoon and evening at a similar to slightly stronger strength
compared to yesterday afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures increase to above normal again Monday and Tuesday

Little changes to the forecast through the upcoming week as a broad
upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will keep the
panhandle dry and warm, prolonging the clear skies and above normal
temperatures, particularly for the southern panhandle. Icy Strait
will see recurring inflow sea breezes in the afternoon hours which
will accelerate around Point Couverden as southerly winds pick up
along Lynn Canal. These will then rebound overnight with winds
slackening and likely reversing direction in many areas as drainage
winds coming out of valleys take over, though not as strongly.

Maximum temperatures in the southern panhandle are expected to reach
the mid 70s up to around 80 on Monday, with inland areas feeling the
warmest as they are not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern
panhandle will see high 60s to start the week, with inland areas
breaching low 70s. Minimum temperatures will reach the low 50s to
high 40s, as the lack of cloud cover allows the land to cool much
more significantly at night. Temps will be above normal for much of
the week, as evidenced by MaxT EFIs of 1 across the panhandle. 850
mb temperatures aloft of 17 degrees Celsius will spread over a
majority of the panhandle, with the southern panhandle potentially
seeing 18 to 19 degrees C. This further increases forecaster
confidence that many communities will see temperatures in the high
70s to low 80s through Tuesday, and even higher for the southern
panhandle. By later Tuesday, a shift in wind direction could bring
some cloud cover to the far southern panhandle which could slightly
lower daytime maximum temperatures midweek.

An upper level low moves up from the southeast Wednesday afternoon
before jumping into the central gulf. Models have slightly more
agreement having the low jump onshore over the panhandle, though
drier air in place over the panhandle should limit rainfall
potential initially. However, associated surface inflection could
bring precipitation back to Yakutat Thursday, reaching the rest of
the panhandle Friday depending upon the breakdown of the surface
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect generally VFR category flight conditions for most of the
Panhandle through the daytime period with enhanced afternoon sea
breezes for many locations. The exception will be the southern
panhandle and Yakutat. These areas will see down to around the
MVFR/IFR category range during the morning hours due to marine
layer influence. Flight conditions should improve up to the VFR
category by noon Alaska time for all TAF locations. Marine layer
influence will return Sunday night for the aforementioned areas,
along with parts of the Outer Coast and potentially the Icy Strait
Corridor (Gustavus, Pelican, and Hoonah)- with reductions back to
MVFR and IFR as the marine layer restrengthens. LLWS values
continue to be benign through the period.


&&

.MARINE...

Inner Channels:Local wind patterns from valley drainage
winds at night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are
still the main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15
to 20 kt in Icy Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds
and seas of 3 ft or less are expected into early next week. An
exception to this is Clarence Strait where NW winds of 15 kt are
expected to continue blowing, and ocean entrances where any NW or
W exposures will allow stronger NW winds up to 20 kt from the near
coastal water of the gulf to invade.

Outside Waters: The area of high pressure in the central gulf will
be rather persistent and is expected to last into next week.
Increased NW winds in the near coastal waters of the eastern gulf
have been observed and are expected to continue as pressure
gradients strengthen between the gulf high and the thermal low in
British Columbia. Currently seeing winds up to 20 kt from Cape
Fairweather southeastward and seas of around 5 to 8 ft (with a 3
ft swell from the W at around 10 sec). These winds are likely to
increase to 25 kt this morning from Cape Ommaney southward as the
gulf high strengthens and will persist into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry
through the weekend and into next week. Low risk for fire weather
concerns remain, but fine fuels are being watched. Lowest inland
relative humidity expected around 30 to 50% each afternoon where
skies are clear mainly for early next week. Warm temperatures
expected through mid next week but somewhat cooler for this
weekend compared to this past Thursday and Friday (60s and low 70s
for highs expected) before another warm period expected (70s or
higher for highs) for the first half of next week. Winds remain
low except for localized sea breezes up to 15 kt in the
afternoons.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
FIRE...EAL

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