366
FXAK67 PAJK 220144 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Friday night / Dry offshore flow with cool
temperatures persisting to the weekend. The low that was west of
Haida Gwaii has weakened and moved away. However, a new low develops
and moves northward to the Canadian waters west of British Columbia
Friday and this renews the tighter pressure gradient bringing
stronger winds and outflow back to the forecast.
A Taku like mountain wave event should develop during the day
Friday. In anticipation of this a High Wind Warning has been
issued for the downtown Juneau and Douglas area.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday into early next week/... Blocking pattern
developing over the region means that conditions will remain
relatively unchanged through the weekend across the panhandle. High
pressure will continue over the interior, though may shift further
east into British Columbia by the start of next week. This could
lead to a slight weakening of northerly outflow winds, but enhance
outflow winds from NE and easterly oriented valleys and interior
passes.

Any chance of precipitation returning to the panhandle rests on the
blocking ridge over the western gulf breaking down. Ensemble models
are actually trending toward deterministic guidance of a shortwave
moving down from the Bering Sea, bringing some precipitation chances
to the northern half of the panhandle. Current forecast reflects
optimistic changes that precipitation (as snow) will return,
bringing anywhere from a trace to 4 inches of snow in 24 hours to
the Icy Strait corridor. However, due to the current strength of the
ridge and how deep the dry layer within the channels currently sits,
certainty regarding any moisture penetrating far into the inner
channels is low.

Following the shortwave moving down, ridging returns to much of
Alaska midweek, with northerly winds, colder temperatures, and clear
skies.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with clear skies and full visibility
will continue here in SE AK. Still dealing with the strong outflow
winds with LLWS not a big issue tonight but looks to return late
Friday morning and last into Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have lessened through the day with Small Craft
level or less, and some Small Craft advisories due to residual
seas. With a new low moving northward to enter the Canadian waters
west of the coast, the pressure gradient increases again Friday.
Look for Gale force outflow winds to develop across Southeast Alaska
and out of interior passes.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ318.
     Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind through Friday afternoon for AKZ325.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-651-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...Bezenek

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