716
FXAK67 PAJK 231356
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
556 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- One more somewhat warm and dry day for the south Thursday.
  Cooler damper weather expected for Friday.

- Rain and drizzle expected to continue for the north through
  Friday. Breezy conditions developing for Lynn Canal and Skagway
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Short range forecast
continues to show the trend of cooler and damper weather for the
late week period as a low in the NW gulf slides SE through the
eastern gulf through Friday. Currently, onshore flow across the
northern panhandle has supported areas of light rain and drizzle
overnight as far south as Sitka and Juneau with overcast skies
down to Sumner Strait. Skies becoming more broken to scattered
south of Sumner Strait as there is still a little bit of slightly
offshore flow there, but there is more upper level cloud cover
moving overhead. N Lynn, Skagway, and Cross Sound are still the
breezy spots this morning with 15 to 20 kt winds.

The short range forecast will mainly be influenced by the low that
will be moving through the eastern gulf over the next two days.
Its main effects will be a reinforcing shot of rainfall and cloud
cover that will spread over most of the panhandle by Thursday
night. Yakutat sees the rain return this morning and the northern
panhandle gets the reinforcing shot by afternoon. This will be
the feature that brings clouds, cooler temps, and rain back into
the forecast for the southern panhandle though that will not be
the case until Thursday night and Friday. Before that expect a
somewhat warm Thursday for areas south of Sumner Strait though
with the lower level air mass continuing to be more and more
marine influenced, expect high temperatures to be a few degrees
cooler then they were yesterday. This feature is also tightening
up the southerly pressure gradient across the northern panhandle,
especially Thursday afternoon. Skagway and Lynn Canal will be the
main place that feels the effects with S wind up to 20 to 30 kt
Thursday afternoon into evening. A wind advisory has been issued
for Skagway for this afternoon and evening as Wind gusts should
just reach 40 to 45 mph at that time with pressure gradients
between Juneau and Skagway reaching around 4 mb.

.LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/... The low pressure
system and associated front will continue moving Southeast through
the Alaska Panhandle Saturday. Overall, the weather pattern for
Saturday looks less favorable aloft for thunderstorms, but there
could be some convective shower activity moving into Southeast
Alaska from British Columbia.

A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska may bring some stronger
winds (up to 15 kts) and higher rain chances Monday into the
middle of next week. Right now, the low looks to be fairly
disorganized, but the strongest winds (up to 20 kts) are forecast
to be near Cape Suckling, as the GFS hints at a barrier jet
formation. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low, but it
is a possibility to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION... Conditions across the panhandle range very widely
this morning with rain in the northern panhandle causing CIGs to
be between LIFR to MVFR and reduced VIS as low as 1.5 to 2 SM.
CIGs across the southern panhandle remain VFR to borderline MVFR,
with the exception of PAKW. Through the day, conditions across
the northern panhandle are expected to improve slightly, but stay
between MVFR and IFR as precipitation moves through the area. The
southern panhandle is expected to remain predominantly VFR
through the day, with clear skies being replaced with high cloud
decks as the next frontal system makes its way southward. Rain is
expected across the southern panhandle by 3 or 4Z, which is likely
to cause a reduction in CIGs and VIS. Winds are expected to be
elevated through the period, as high as 15kts, with especially
gusty conditions at PAGY and PAHN. There are no LLWS concerns at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
-Outer Waters: The highest winds on Thursday are expected in the
 outer gulf and reaching in slightly to the outer coastal waters.
 In the gulf, wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25kts W with
 wind speeds of 10-15kts along the inner coastal waters. However,
 the high winds are expected to bring 8ft significant wave heights
 to the coastal waters through the day. Friday brings the
 reduction on winds as a meso low spins up in the northern gulf,
 causing winds to become light and variable as the weak low
 pressure center moves through the area. These conditions are
 expected to persist through the weekend.
-Inner Waters: Thursday brings overall heightened winds across the
 inner channels, especially in channels with a north/south
 orientation. The winds today are largely driven by a squeezing
 pressure gradient, expected to reach up to 30 kts SE in Lynn
 Canal. Other channels to look out for are Glacier Bay, Chatham
 Strait, and Stephen`s Passage, all expected to see southerly
 winds up to 20kts. Cross Sound into Icy Strait will also channel
 strong westerly winds, up to 20kts, through the day. Winds are
 expected to begin to diminish overnight Thursday, with Lynn Canal
 diminishing last through Friday. Winds are then expected to
 remain mainly light and variable through the weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...Musall
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP

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