994
FXAK67 PAJK 150559 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
959 PM AKDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation section for 6z taf issuance and long
term section.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday night up
  to 10 kts expected except locally gusty near eastern Icy Strait.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches
  late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds
  across the panhandle by mid week.

SHORT TERM...

Surface high pressure continues to exist in the northern gulf
today and tonight, resulting in relatively benign conditions. The
most impactful portion of the forecast is the incoming clouds from
both a lower level marine layer and a mid to upper level
disturbance moving eastward along the ridge aloft, generating some
clouds. Apologies in advance to all Aurora hunters out there
looking for clear skies.

Going into Tuesday, we have the beginnings of a stream of
moisture coming up from far south in the Pacific. This plume
looks to wrap around the ridge tomorrow evening, pushing the high
pressure southeastward, and bringing rain back to the panhandle.
Not expecting much impact from this round of rain, as the
anticyclonic flow the moisture is following does not lend itself
to strong lift dynamics, but could see some moderate rain for the
Yakutat area mainly in part to orographic lift. Could see some
river rises, particularly on west facing slopes (Montana Creek,
Jordan Creek, Indian River in Sitka); however, the shortwave
moving eastward looks somewhat progressive, shifting moisture to
the south by Wednesday morning and diminishing. Therefore, no
flood is expected at this time around, but rivers are expected to
rise.

Going into the late week, a round of heavier rain looks
increasingly likely. More in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Upper level features
continue to show a rather active pattern through the long range
period. We start out with overall zonal W to E flow over much of
the region that will gradually transition to a broad upper trough
stretching from the Russian Far East to NW Canada by the weekend.
The transition is set in motion by an upper low moving out of
Russia late week that eventually anchors itself over SW mainland
Alaska. The broad trough stays in place into early next week, but
several short waves are evident rotating around the southern edge
of it.

The active weather pattern is still apparent at the surface with a
series of fronts expected to move through the region late week,
through the weekend, and into early next week. First the low and
front that is approaching on Friday that was a new feature in the
guidance yesterday is still there, but details are still being
worked out. Guidance has been somewhat split on whether this
system will track S to N farther west and stronger or farther east
and weaker. The trend so far looks to be toward the latter, but it
will still be a wet (up to 1 to 2 inches of rain Fri morning to
Sat morning) and breezy (winds of 15 to 25 kt for the SE gulf and
inside waters) Friday regardless.

The weekend is looking interesting as well with a strong broad
area of low pressure moving into the gulf from the SW and heading
toward the northern gulf coast. In addition to the stronger
onshore SW flow it will bring, it its wake is a shot of cooler air
that will be coming in from the west. Forecast convective
indices are already indicating that Sunday into Monday may be
rather convective/showery in nature as the cooler air moves in and
the potential is there for some thunderstorms across a large area
of the gulf and outer coast at that time. I have added a broad
area of slight chance of thunder at that time with the potential
that areas along the outer coast could see more frequent
thunderstorms from the interaction with the terrain. We will keep
monitoring these systems as more details emerge.

AVIATION... A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has
led to generally VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception
of Sitka. The main concern for aviation tonight will be the
potential for marine layer fog. In terms of fog, the coverage is
looking fairly similar to what was around the area tonight, but
Ketchikan may also see some lower ceilings. There is highest
confidence in fog occurring for Yakutat and Petersburg. However,
it cannot be completely ruled out for Juneau.

Conditions are not expected to clear out as much Tuesday as this
they did today. This is thanks to a warm front approaching from
the west. This is expected to bring ceilings AoA 1500 feet and
rain chances after 03Z Wednesday to the Northern Panhandle. This
front looks to impact east of Sitka after 06Z Wednesday. Based on
the orientation of the front, this may lead to some low level
wind shear concerns for Yakutat. However, the strongest winds look
to occur with the front after 06Z Wednesday.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: High pressure gradually weakens through this week as
several surface features make their way east across the northern
Gulf. Winds predominantly NW`rly at 10 to 20 kt in the eastern
Gulf Monday afternoon, trending toward a more W`rly component in
the central and northern Gulf through tonight. Winds start picking
up Tuesday morning and shifting to a more southerly direction
with the upcoming system. Generally expecting an increase to 25 to
30 kt winds, gusts to 40 kt, for the central and northern Gulf
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Also noting a high
likelihood of increased winds near prominent capes. Wave heights
of 3 to 6 ft expected Tuesday morning, building to 8 to 11 ft in
the central and northern Gulf by early Wednesday morning, before
diminishing through midweek, all with a SW-ly swell. Anticipating
less marine layer influence tomorrow morning, however visibilities
could still be impacted along the NE Gulf coastline south toward
Cross Sound.

Inside Channels: The retreating morning marine layer and clearing
skies have generated light sea breezes around 10 to 15 kt over the
northern panhandle this afternoon, specifically within Icy Strait
around the Sisters Island to Rocky Island region. Elsewhere,
seeing light to gentle breezes prevailing through this afternoon
and overnight. Winds are expected to start picking up Tuesday
morning across the panhandle as the pressure gradient tightens
with the incoming system. Predominately southerly winds will
continue to increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across
the northern and central inner channels. The highest of these
winds will be in Lynn Canal with S winds 25 to 35 kt, gusts to 40
kt, with brief gales in Northern Lynn mainly overnight into
Wednesday morning. As this systems exits the region, winds are
expected to decrease some, but remain elevated ahead of another
Gulf system moving in late week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-643-644-651-652-662>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...BAS

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