085
FXAK67 PAJK 171801
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1001 AM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.UPDATE...Updated the Aviation Section for the 18z tafs.
Additionally, increased winds for Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and
areas directly west offshore for the rising pressure and
isallobaric wind in the area. Mariners may see wave heights much
higher than expected for waters in Icy Strait, particularly near
the mouth of Glacier Bay. This is due to stronger southwesterly
swell colliding with easterly winds currently occurring.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds to the panhandle on
  Monday, along with much cooler temperatures.

- The cooler, more seasonable conditions will prevail this week
  with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers as multiple
  systems pass through the region


&&

.SHORT TERM...The front extending from the low centered over
southwest Alaska continues to push into the panhandle early this
morning, spreading light to moderate rain into much of SEAK. The
front will weaken as it drags southeast through the day, with rain
amounts diminishing. Additional rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.75
inches for much of the northern panhandle, with lower amounts as
you head south, with 0.10 to 0.25 inches for the southern
panhandle. The frontal passage will also bring gusty winds,
especially for Skagway and Klondike Highway, where southerly winds
20 to 30 mph gusting to 40+ mph are expected. Behind the front,
onshore flow will keep cooler marine air over much of the
panhandle, along with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers.
The ridge of high pressure looks to briefly build into the
southern panhandle on Tuesday, allowing for some clearing and
slightly warmer temps through midweek. The next front looks to
lift into the region by later Wednesday as a low slides into the
western Gulf. Models differ on exact timing and location, but
confidence is for another round of steadier/heavier rain lifting
into the northern panhandle and northeast Gulf coast by Wednesday
night, with decreasing rain chances further south. Daytime temps
much cooler for the start of the week, with highs generally in the
60s, although Yakutat may struggle to reach 60. Some pockets of
low 70s possible for the southern panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday
as partial clearing will allow for greater daytime heating.

.LONG TERM... Extremely little changes to the overall long term
forecast, with the only large scale feature of note being a surge
of energy from the eastern Bering Sea possibly moving into the
northern Alaska Gulf by this weekend. Details are still low on
this possible event, but worse case scenario from current
solutions is another round of moderate to possibly heavy rain for
primarily the northern half of the panhandle, along with an
increase in winds. Otherwise, mid to late work week has multiple
waves move through mainly the northern half of the panhandle.
These waves do not look to bring rain totals greater than an inch,
with rain rates not exceeding light intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dreary flying conditions this morning, as a front moves through
the panhandle today, with widespread IFR to pockets of LIFR due to
both CIGs and VIS. A pocket of heavier rain, currently around the
Sitka area, is moving southeast toward the southern panhandle
during the afternoon timeframe. Moderate to heavy rain, ceilings
generally AoB 900 ft, and visibilities less than 2 miles are
associated with this pocket. As the front passes, general onshore
flow with mostly MVFR CIGs and the occasional rain showers, mainly
on west to southwest facing mountains, will persist overnight.
Worse conditions, around low MVFR, are expected largely along the
coast, with CIGs AoA 2000 ft for the inner channels.

While winds at the surface are elevated, particularly near Haines
and Skagway with gusts up to 40 knots, the LLWS concerns have
largely ended, as the front has weakened to below category. Winds
for most areas are expected to slack overnight, with a chance of
some fog development possible for the central panhandle.
Confidence is low for any fog development at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside:
As of this discussion, winds near Cape St. Elias and buoy 82 have
begun to decline behind the front advancing north and east across
the gulf. As of 5am Monday, seas of 10 ft with a period of around
8 seconds were still being reported. Further east at the
Fairweather Grounds, buoy 83 was still reporting seas closer to 5
ft with a period around 16 seconds. From Cross Sound south to
Prince of Wales, fresh to moderate breezes are still expected
through the day before a westerly wind shift behind the front
through the afternoon and evening hours. For the northern coast,
large and confused seas from building southwest swell mixing with
southeasterly wind driven seas will gradually subside through
the evening hours behind the front. As you move from Cross Sound
to Prince of Wales, expect southwest swell to be a bit more
prominent, with southerly wind chop riding on top. Significant
heights of 8 ft near Cape Edgecumbe, and 6 to 7 ft west of Prince
of Wales.

Inside:
Current forecast shows confidence for building moderate breezes
across Chatham and Stephens Monday, with strong breezes impacting
Lynn Canal. As of 5am Monday , northern Lynn Canal is maintaining
sustained southerly winds around 25 kt and this is expected to
continue and strengthen slightly through the afternoon hours as
the front lifts inland. Folks in Glacier Bay will feel
southeasterly winds of moderate to fresh breezes, becoming
southerly as the front moves over the area Monday afternoon.
Caution advised for Reid Inlet and other bays/inlets sheltered
from southeast winds but exposed to southerly blows in Glacier
Bay.

While some guidance highlights the possibility of moderate to
fresh breezes in Clarence Strait today, current thinking is the
front and resulting pressure gradient will remain strongest in
the central and northern Panhandle. As a result, sustained winds
are expected to remain below fresh breezes for the south.
Forecasted peak winds show up to 15 knots in Clarence for Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...STJ

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