709
FXAK67 PAJK 091343
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
543 AM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Quiet weather continues across SE AK, as a ridge
over the Gulf continues to steer the strongest storm systems away
from SE AK and into the West Coast of the state instead. A marine
layer which lingered through the day yesterday has expanded during
the overnight hours and will likely succeed in hovering around
much of the area through the day, especially for the northern and
central channel. Fog will linger in some areas through much of the
morning as well before dissipating. The marine layer will prove
to be the highlight of the forecast until late Thursday night,
when a weak ~1015 mb low attempts to move over the ridge and into
the panhandle, bringing a short wave with it. While some showers
are expected the low itself will be fairly moisture deprived, and
rainfall amounts will largely be on the lower side as a result as
the low traverses across the are on Friday. Some blustery winds
possible for the northern panhandle along with inner channels from
the Icy Strait Corridor northward, but nothing which hasn`t been
seen already this season (for additional details, see the marine
forecast). By Friday afternoon, the shortwave will be departing
the panhandle, and the ridge will be rebuilding over the area,
ushering in more dry weather which will last for much of the
weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term forecast
  period
- Fast moving short wave trough over the interior brings rain Friday
- Chance for minor snow accumulations in far northern panhandle on
  the tail end of the system
- Northerly outflow event Saturday
- Rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week

Building on the short range discussion, a fast moving mid level
trough will impact the panhandle through Friday. With influence
of high pressure remaining over the gulf, this system is not
expected to have much moisture content to work with and overall
rain amounts are expected to be relatively light. In the far
northern panhandle at the tail end of this feature, high pressure
will begin building over the interior. Because of this, northerly
outflow will begin to develop allowing for the possibility of
minor snow accumulations at higher elevations along the Klondike
Highway before precipitation fully exits the region later Friday
evening. Elsewhere across the panhandle near sea level communities
can expect cool light rain along with some increasing winds along
the ridge tops, but nothing particularly strong, as the trough
moves through.

While high pressure builds over the interior and Yukon Territory,
high pressure will also remain over the gulf and NE Pacific. As a
result, northerly outflow will develop with winds increasing along
north/south oriented channels. The strongest winds are expected
along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, particularly Saturday
morning. As of this forecast issuance, sustained winds up to near
gale force (28 to 33 kt) with gusts up to 40 kt are expected for
Lynn Canal along with seas gradually building to 5 to 6 ft. With
this dry northerly outflow and continued subsidence from high
pressure anchored over the gulf, there is growing confidence that
Saturday and Sunday minimum temperatures will reach near or below
freezing at sea level for most communities in the northern and
central panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer
coast and sheltered from significant wind. Daytime maximum
temperatures will likely be limited to the low 50s for the inner
channels while outer coastal communities could reach the mid 50s.

Northerly outflow winds are expected to largely diminish by
Saturday night with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting
into early Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance
starts to diverge slightly on timing for the next organized system
to impact the panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into
the panhandle late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of
moisture, others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this
off for a bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Overall
message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather
early next week after an otherwise fairly cold and blustery
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Friday Morning/...
Another wide array of flight conditions this morning across the
panhandle as a quick moving ridge shifts across the area aloft.
Quick look and obs and satellite shows a nice marine deck AoB
2000 to 3000ft expanding across the N panhandle, along and north
of the Icy Strait Corridor, including Juneau. Shifting to the
central panhandle, including Angoon, Petersburg, and Wrangell,
currently seeing the worst flight conditions across with CIGs AoB
500ft and Visbys as low as 1/4SM at Petersburg. Finally, for the
southern panhandle TAF sites, VFR conditions prevail for Ketchikan
and Klawock under a FEW deck to clear skies, but with fog/marine
layer in the area.

Through the rest of Thursday, anticipating similar trends to
yesterday. For northern TAF sites, anticipating slow climb to
upper end MVFR to VFR conditions as fog dissipates through the
morning, with CIGS AoA 2500ft prevailing by 20z to 22z. For the
central and southern TAF sites, after marine layer and fog
dissipate, generally clear skies and VFR conditions prevail
through 06z Friday. Looking towards the end of the TAF period, a
weak low will shift across the N Gulf of Alaska, bringing light
rain back to Yakutat and across the northern panhandle.

Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period,
generally 10kts or less, but can`t rule an isolated gust up to
20kts during the afternoon at Ketchikan and Skagway, returning
near 5 to 10kts into Friday. No LLWS concerns at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal water):
Currently a ridge over the Gulf is resulting in widespread West
to northwest flow across the outer coastal waters. Winds of 15-20
kt across the coastal waters and 25 kt across the eastern Gulf are
set to continue through the day, before increasing to 20 to 25 kt
for coastal waters, and 25 - 30 kt for gulf waters respectively
overnight. The culprit - a weak (at least by Autumn standards)
low, will also bring with it increasing wave heights, with 5-8 ft
waves in the coastal waters during the daytime building to 9-14
feet by late Thursday night, and increasing to 17 ft further
offshore on Friday, with waters in the eastern Gulf a few ft
higher. Swell starts on Thursday from the West to Southwest 2-3 ft
but builds, especially for areas south of Yakutat Bay, to 6-7 ft
from the same direction through Thursday night, before becoming
10-13 ft on Friday.


Inside (Inner channels):
Light winds (less than 15 knots) continue to be forecast for the
majority of inner channels through Thursday morning with the
exception of local/isolated problem spots like southern Chatham
Strait, Pt. Couverden, and northern Lynn Canal, nothing outside of
what we typically experience in October. Friday a near-gale force
low moves along our coast, increasing southerly winds in Lynn
Canal to strong breezes. Friday night into Saturday, northerly
outflow conditions are forecasted for Lynn Canal and Chatham
Strait, with speeds reaching near-gale force for a few hours from
Taiya Inlet down to Vanderbilt Reef, driving 6 ft waves down Lynn
Canal toward Pt. Augusta in Northern Chatham/Icy Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for
AKZ326-328.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau