339
FXAK67 PAJK 211635 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 535 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SHORT TERM...The warm and rain-filled weather pattern continues
for SE AK. The mid-level steering flow shows no sign of letting up
in the near future, directing system after system into SE AK A
brief lull between systems through Friday, with the drier weather
largely concentrated across the central and northern panhandle,
will replaced by another system advancing from the S. As the new
low moves north, expect more strong winds and moderate rainfall
for the southern panhandle, and gusty winds and light rain across
the northern half of the area. Elevated snow levels will keep
chances of snow at bay for locations near sea level.


.LONG TERM...The mid range today is very similar to yesterday in
that we will continue to see active weather for the forecast
period. A series of lows will continue to move up from the south
bringing winds, warm weather, and rain to the panhandle. Models
continue to show a consistent trend of moderate rain moving into
the area with some potential periods of heavy rain. At the moment,
there some indications of the potential for prolonged heavy rain
for the central and southern panhandle for next week but that will
still need to be monitored as systems move closer to the area.
Into the start of next week, the likelihood of warm and wet
weather continues to be very likely for the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../12z Friday to 12z Saturday/...Improving flying
conditions have been moving into the area overnight. High-end MVFR
to VFR has been dotting the landscape. However, these better
flying conditions will be brief as the next system and associated
gale force front tracks through today.

LLWS is a big concern today for mainly areas south of Icy Strait.
Latest high-res ensemble guidance gives this area a >70% chance of
seeing LLWS spreading northward from around 14z, reaching Icy
Strait around 21z.

CIG should also see some dips to MVFR as the band of moisture
moves through this morning into this afternoon. Some concern for
brief IFR conditions under the heavier rain bands. VIS should
remain high-end MVFR to VFR.

These lowered conditions and LLWS will last through most of
tonight with better weather moving in Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Another low moves N into the gulf through the day on
Friday, bringing with it more gale force winds. Impactful winds will
mainly be over the SE Gulf and southern inner channels through
Friday before the low moves to the NW and weakens Friday night into
early Saturday. Winds in the inner channels will flip from southerly
back to northerly again as the low moves in on Friday and the
pressure gradient flips. Expect localized outflow winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033>036-053-642>644-651-652-663-
     664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GFS

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