732
FXAK67 PAJK 062329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 PM AKDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A short break from the rain continues Friday before the next
   front reaches the panhandle late tonight into Saturday.
 - A gale force low moves into western gulf early late Friday
   into Saturday.
 - Heaviest rain and highest QPF will be located near Yakutat
   Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Details: A brief ridge will quickly be overcome by a low located in
the western gulf. This low will bring increased winds and times
heavy rain to the north gulf coast as a warm front reaches the
panhandle. The first to arrive will be increased winds with strong
gales of 35 to 35 kts with storm force gusts near Kayak Island
Saturday morning, see the Marine section for more information. Winds
over land areas were increased in this forecast to show an
increasing trend with the warm front. Winds north of Icy Strait
will begin to increase Saturday morning to 20 to 25 mph with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. These winds will stay strong before beginning to
diminish late Saturday into Sunday morning.

For precipitation, EFI Tables still match with the northern coast
getting unseasonably wet with this weekend system, though any
precipitation impacts still remain light with no flooding concerns.
to accompany, a short period of increased integrated vapor transport
of 250 to 500 will be focused on the northern gulf. This higher
moisture will bring the heaviest precipitation around the Yakutat
area with total 24 hour QPF amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches. Heaviest
rain rates will occur Saturday evening into Sunday morning with 0.1
inches per hour near Yakutat and 70% chance of > 0.1 inch per hour
over Yakutat. The rest of the panhandle will see lighter rain with
24 hour rain totals around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for the central
panhandle and even less for the south.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - A warm front brings more rain focused on the northern
   panhandle Saturday into Sunday.
 - Less active weather on the horizon to start the week as a
   broad surface ridge builds over the gulf.

Details: Rain and increased winds will continue into Sunday as the
low moves inland and weakens. This rain will be mainly over the
central and northern panhandle with 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain
Sunday. Highest amounts will again be located near Yakutat due to
the low tracking ENE as it weakens.

After the weekend system leaves the area, broad ridging will build
over the gulf allowing for a chance of drier weather over the
panhandle with areas of light precipitation. Areas of dry air at 700
mb will help to keep any precipitation very light Tuesday to the end
of the week. Although, an upper level trough and embedded low will be
what helps to still bring some moisture to the northern panhandle.
As for temperatures, highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the
mid 40s near normal. Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible, mostly
in the southern panhandle where more breaks in the clouds are
possible. Stay tuned for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Flight conditions today continue to improve
across the panhandle with CIGs above 3500ft and VIS over 6 SM for
the majority of the area. These VFR conditions will last into
tonight before the front hits the panhandle, dropping conditions
back down to MVFR as areas get impacted by the warm front. The front
will hit the northeast Gulf coast around Yakutat first at around 09Z
before moving into the rest of the panhandle late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Yakutat may also drop to IFR tomorrow morning as
VIS is expected to fall to 4SM with CIGs dropping to under 1000ft.
There will be some areas in the southern panhandle not as impacted
by the front, particularly Ketchikan and up through Petersburg
and Wrangell, which are not likely to see MVFR conditions until
later into tomorrow. These locations also seem like they will be
more impacted by the cold front coming in tomorrow night past this
TAF issuance period, but they still might see some drops to MVFR
closer to midday tomorrow.

Skagway continues to see gusty wind conditions this afternoon, and
this is still expected to last into tonight, where it will see some
calmer conditions before the front pushes in. The winds will pick up
again for Skagway and begin for Haines by tomorrow morning as the
gradient tightens in the north. Yakutat will also begin to see some
increased winds to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts following behind the
front, along with some LLWS with winds with the potential to exceed
50 kts at 2000ft. Locations along the outer coast and through the
northern panhandle are expected to see some LLWS of around 35 kts at
2000ft into tomorrow and may see some turbulence as the front moves
through. The southern and central panhandle areas not located along
the outer coast will see much less impact by wind shear, and are
likely to see winds of only 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters:

Winds strengthen through Friday night as a storm force low moves
into the Gulf, The front side of the low looks to bring gale
force winds to the coastal waters. The winds will start to pick up
late Friday night and last through Saturday. 25 to 35 kt winds
could linger into Sunday for the southern outer coast as the low
wraps up and moves northward. A brief period of storm force wind
gusts (50 kt to 55 kt) is expected on Saturday near Kayak Island
in the northern gulf as a barrier jet sets up.

Inner Channels:

A relative lull in the winds through Friday gives way on Saturday
as winds strengthen across the inner channels through the day.
The previously mentioned low looks to swing a pair of fronts
through the area that will increase wind speeds in the inner
channels to around 20 to 30 kts, with winds rapidly increasing
during the late morning through afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. Lynn Canal will see brief gusts upwards of 40 to 45
kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652.
     Gale Warning for PKZ651-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-661>663.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...GFS

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