908
FXAK67 PAJK 121348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
548 AM AKDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through the day, with
  afternoon seabreezes up to 10 kts expected.

- High pressure returns through the weekend with drier weather,
  partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
  70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/

Overall forecast remains largely on track: dry weather, clear
skies, temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and
near calm winds throughout the area. Made some small adjustments
to cloud coverage this morning through this afternoon as high
pressure over the western gulf is a bit more flat, allowing for a
bit more mid to upper incoming moisture to stream across the N
Panhandle resulting in a scattered clouds over the N Panhandle.
This incoming cloud deck should keep Yakutat, Gustavus, Hoonah,
and Juneau just out of frost development. Sky forecast will be
challenging given placement of the high over the Gulf as cloud
coverage will be the main variable for limiting high and low
temperature across the panhandle this afternoon and once again
overnight into Sunday. Overall, today will be similar to
yesterday, highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, isolated pockets
breaking into the upper 70s over the S Panhandle for a couple
hours. Winds remain light through much of the day outside of a few
hours this afternoon/evening where a sea breeze will kick up,
around 15mph or less, sporadic gust to 25 kts.

Looking towards Sunday, once again expecting similar dry trend to
continue with light winds across the area outside of the
afternoon breezes and temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Main
difference will be expecting sunnier skies as mid/upper levels
winds turn more NW-ly, allowing for more clearing into the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...High pressure persists
over the Gulf of Alaska, continuing to keep the region seasonably
dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low
pressure system tracking east across western and central mainland
Alaska will send several fronts across the northern half of the
region, bringing increasing chances of light rain through the
week. Expect an initial, lighter pass of showers on Tuesday, with
precipitation amounts increasing as a secondary front pushes in by
Wednesday morning along the NE Gulf Coast, where it is likely to
see the greatest amounts. While 24-hour rainfall totals are
trending higher with recent model runs, guidance spread remains.
Some areas, like Yakutat, could see locally heavy rainfall
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The high pressure ridge is expected to weaken as the low pressure
system approaches from the west. Northwest flow along the ridge axis
will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm
Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along
exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens. Also with this pattern, winds are likely to strengthen
near Skagway as these fronts pass. Increased cloud cover in the
north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild
overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with
highs remaining in the mid to high 60s. Some guidance is starting
to pick up on additional activity later in the week, though
outside of the current forecast period. Stay tuned for more
information as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...Continued VFR conditions across the panhandle through
Saturday, with a marine layer staying offshore and any patchy fog
developing early this morning likely to remain shallow. Some low
stratus and fog has developed early this morning around Cross
Sound, though as of now this looks to remain stationary this
morning rather than push into Icy Strait. There may be some low
clouds that push in between 15-18z along the NE Gulf coast,
extending down to Baranof Island by 18-21z, but most likely this
marine layer will stay offshore and over the Gulf while only some
higher cloud cover will move in over the panhandle during the day.
Sea breezes are expected to develop again with winds up to 10-15
kt at their peak during the day. Aside from sea breezes, winds
will remain calm this morning and light winds will return again by
Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with
the persistent message of northerly to northwesterly winds. High
pressure continues most of the Gulf, winds will continue to be
N-NW for places along the eastern portion of the Gulf. Places
north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly component
to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the coast and
outer water from the westerly swell moving through the area. As
the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the central and
southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt while
points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds remaining
around 10-15 kt.


Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel
weather hazards through the weekend. Winds and wave heights
across the inner channels this morning remain minimal. A marine
layer has developed near Cross Sound and is slowly encroaching
its way into W Icy Strait and S Glacier Bay. Expecting this marine
layer to slowly continue towards Gustavus through the early
morning before dissipating by the early afternoon. Winds will
remain light through much of Sunday, outside the typical
afternoon seabreeze influences. Only forecast hiccup to speak of
will be anticipating a wind shift this afternoon, northerly winds
from the Icy Strait Corridor will flip southerly through the
early afternoon. For N Chatham Strait over to Stephens Passage (
South of Point Arden), expect generally light winds becoming N
wind through the afternoon. Overall winds will remain around 10
kt or less, with a sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours
this afternoon before quickly diminishing into the evening back to
calm and variable. Wave heights follow suit to lightening winds,
0 to 3 ft. Overall, will likely be a nice couple of days to get
out on the water.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...NM

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