


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
268 FXAK67 PAJK 062335 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 335 PM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/...The current frontal system is a bit stronger & more organized than we`ve seen, as of late, which is continuing to progress through the Panhandle today, which has increased rain coverage and is bringing some breezier conditions to the Southeast Alaska region. Another low will approach the Panhandle, riding up along the aforementioned front, bringing the southern Panhandle more action with enhanced winds and rainfall, late tonight through Monday. A widespread inch or 2 of rainfall is in store for the southern half to 2/3 of the Panhandle for this system through Monday night. Also, notably, there are slight chances for thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters and along the Outer Coast over the next couple of days as temperatures up at 850mb of as low as a little below 0 deg C, CAPE values of up to around 150-200 J/kg, & positive vorticity values up at 500mb advect toward and over those areas behind the front & along with the low moving up from the south. SFC temps will remain relatively seasonable for the short term forecast period. Forecast confidence is average to above average as model guidance is largely in good agreement on the attributes of the weather features over the next couple of days. .LONG TERM... Key messages: - Moderate to heavy rain continues Tuesday focused over the southern panhandle. - A surface ridge allows for a decrease in precipitation Wednesday before the next system. - Another low in the gulf brings moderate to heavy rain toward the entire panhandle Thursday into Friday. Details: The front that moves over the panhandle Monday will bring times of heavy to moderate precipitation focused on the southern panhandle. A majority of this rain will fall Monday with lingering showers into Tuesday. Total precipitation over Tuesday remains around 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in 24 hours. A majority of this will come from heavy rain Tuesday morning. Rain will then begin to diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge develops between our two stronger systems. During this time, onshore flow will continue allowing for times of light showers to continue on Wednesday. Then a short break is looking probable Wednesday night into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a strong low approaching the central gulf. Thursday into Friday, with the help of an upper level jet of SW winds, a low will move into the northern gulf increasing winds and bringing moderate to heavy rain. Currently, multiple ensembles are showing the likelihood of >250 kg/m/s of integrated water vapor transport moving over the panhandle. This supports the increased chance of heavy rain across the entire panhandle, with the most precipitation focused again on the southern panhandle. Along with heavy precipitation, there is a >70% chance of gale force winds along the NE gulf at this time. That being said, the active weather continues for SE AK into and through this week. Stay tuned as we will continue to update the forecast ahead of this system. && .AVIATION...Flying conditions continue to be all over the place this afternoon with conditions ranging from VFR down to IFR and some isolated pockets of LIFR. These conditions are expected to continue this evening with ceilings remaining around MVFR or dropping to IFR. There are some areas though that are expected to see higher ceilings such as Skagway where conditions have remained fairly nice today. Besides CIGs, VIS is also expected to be a potential issue this evening with the rain as the next area of precipitation moves into the panhandle during the overnight hours. AAWU forecast guidance shows some potential for turbulence over the panhandle, especially above FL180. Closer to the surface, guidance from the AAWU shows the potential for icing all across the panhandle for this evening. && .MARINE...Inside Waters: The strongest winds on the inside are expected to be 15-20kt during the day, but some higher gusts are likely heading into the late afternoon and evening. A new low center approaching from the southwest late tonight into Monday morning will cause winds to increase to the Small Craft level (25kt) for Clarence Strait. As the low weakens and passes over the southern Inner Channels, expect winds to become light to 10 kt & more variable in direction. .Outside Waters: A low center set up over the northern Gulf and an associated front are causing a barrier jet over the northeastern Gulf near & southwest of Icy Bay through tonight. Southeasterly winds will veer more southwesterly, then westerly behind the front through the rest of this afternoon & through Monday night, respectively. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the northeastern Gulf this afternoon through the night. Even if thunder does not develop, convective showers can make their own gusty/erratic winds. Potential for thunderstorms shifts to the southern half of the eastern Gulf Monday evening with the new low center moving northward. Again, gusty/erratic winds and choppy seas are all possible with those showers. Seas at the Gulf buoys report 5-7ft, with a S-SE swell with a period of around 16 seconds. 6-8ft seas with the barrier jet small craft area are anticipated to last through this evening. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-644-651-652-661-664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...SF MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau