403
FXAK67 PAJK 110543
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
843 PM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025

.UPDATE...long range and aviation sections updated.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single
   digits to teens for overnight lows. Northern Lynn Canal will
   see lows below zero. Dangerously cold wind chills along White
   Pass.

 - Snow in the southern panhandle moves east late this afternoon
   into early evening. Leaving behind clearer and drier skies for
   the panhandle.

 - Continued strong outflow winds will keep the cold air in place
   through the weekend for the northern panhandle. Marginally
   warmer air moves into the southern panhandle this weekend with
   snow likely.


SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...Main concerns in the
short term is the continued well-below-normal temps and the snow
in the far southern panhandle.

For the snow in the south, the band of snow is tracking eastward
quickly so the snow will last through the rest of Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday evening with diminishing snow
overnight.

As far as the cold is concerned, cold weather products are issued
for the for northern Lynn Canal areas through Thursday night due
to wind chills getting down to -20 to -50. Elsewhere, low wind
chills are likely, just not to specific thresholds that are
unique to local areas. Low air temps down to singe digits to
teens for most of the area, little colder in Northern Lynn Canal.
Thursday`s high air temps look to be in the single digits for
Northern Lynn Canal, low to mid teens for the Icy Strait Corridor,
low 20s to near 30 for the rest of the panhandle.

Skies should remain dry with mostly clear conditions expected
into Friday.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...Only minor changes were
made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind
timing and beginning to narrow down timing on the potential snow
for next weekend into early next week.

Strong outflow winds continue to hold any developing showers
offshore until Saturday morning, keeping the panhandle dry with
partly cloudy skies through the rest of the week. A small surface
ridge developing on Friday is expected to make that day the most
clear and the least windy, though outflow winds will still be
elevated to around 20 kts in the strongest areas. Precipitation is
expected to return to the forecast Saturday morning as a low
jumps into the southern gulf and sends a front northward into the
panhandle. The precipitation will mainly impact the southern
panhandle over the weekend, extending north to the central and
parts of the northern panhandle through Sunday into next week.
Uncertainty still remains in how far this front will make it up
the panhandle, as persisting outflow winds will attempt to force
the front to stay more south. With colder temperatures remaining
through the long term forecast, precipitation will most likely
fall as snow for the northern panhandle. The front will bring
slightly warmer temperatures around freezing with it to the
southern panhandle, making it possible for this precipitation to
mix for parts of the weekend. Active weather looks to remain into
early next week.

The main impacts for the long term remains the temperatures and
winds. The arctic boundary sits just south of the panhandle
through the rest of the week, keeping below freezing temperatures
through much of the extended forecast. Daytime highs will struggle
to reach into the 20s for many locations in the northern and
central panhandle, and into the 30s for the southern panhandle.
Overnight lows during the week will mostly stay in the single
digits up north and in the 10s down south, slightly increasing
through the weekend as the next system moves in. Uncertainty
remains on southern panhandle temperatures through the weekend, as
models are starting to depict the arctic boundary shifting just
north of this area allowing the front to bring temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s to some of these southern locations. This makes
snow potential even more uncertain, as there may be times where
these temperatures reach above freezing enough to turn to a
rain/snow mix or even just rain for periods. This boundary looks
to shift back down south into early next week, keeping the cold
temperature trend in the extended forecast. An extreme cold
warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, has
been reissued through 9 AM Friday for extremely cold wind chill
temperatures as low as 55 degrees below. The cold weather advisory
for the Haines Borough has also been reissued through 9 AM Friday
for wind chills as low as 25 degrees below, primarily once the
sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week, with 20
to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the inner
channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the gulf.
The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle,
particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross
Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for
strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in
wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20
kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into
the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a
majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in
those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will
remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast
with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.

AVIATION...Main aviation concerns continue to be the outflow winds
across the northern panhandle, and lower ceiling and lingering
precip in the southern panhandle. First, the outflow across the
north continues to be strong with ground level winds reaching 25
to 40 kt (gusts to 45 kt) in the usual outflow areas. In addition,
areas in the north blocked from the outflow winds are seeing some
low level wind shear and turbulence just from the outflow flowing
over the ridge lines, though it isn`t very strong (around 25 to 35
kt at 1000 to 2000 ft). These conditions are expected to continue
through Thursday night at least. Down south, cloud cover and
precipitation from today`s system linger from Frederick Sound
southward with ceilings around 1500 to 2500 ft area wide, and vis
down to 2 miles at Petersburg due to snow lingering there. Expect
these conditions to improve through tonight and into tomorrow
morning with most areas becoming VFR by midday tomorrow at the
latest. VFR conditions expected to continue panhandle wide through
Thursday night.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: Northeasterly outflow winds up to 30 to 35 kt are
in store for the northeastern gulf through Thursday. For Friday,
the pressure gradient relaxes & winds decrease. Then, outflow gap
winds increase again, up to around 40-45 kt, for the same areas
for the weekend. Significant wave heights increase to around 22
ft for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible for the
northeastern gulf.

Inside Waters: The outflow pattern continues for the next several
days, keeping up to around 30 to 40 kt sustained winds for the
northern 2/3 of the Inner Channels with the strongest winds in
Northern Lynn Canal. These winds will also be accompanied by
fully-developed seas up to around 17 ft with the highest waves
the more northward you go. Additionally, moderate to heavy
freezing spray is also likely to continue.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-034-651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-033-053-641>644-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK/SF
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GJS


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