754
FXAK67 PAJK 090531
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
831 PM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section with the issuance of the
06z set of TAFs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 415 PM AKST Mon Dec 8...

SHORT TERM...Currently looking at the strong system that moved
into the southern panhandle making its exit into British Columbia,
leaving residual onshore flow and soon to be lighter snow for the
Petersburg and Wrangell areas. With its exit, the southern
panhandle is looking at a resurgence of northerly winds and colder
temperatures. These northerly winds will be key in bringing stable
air into Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. At this
time, currently expecting the arctic winds to reach south of
Annette Island, but the big question on this forecasters mind is
how strong and stable the dry air will be. Current thoughts is
fairly strong, as ridging aloft in British Columbia look to build
in high pressure, which looks to help bring down the cold air via
katabatic winds.

Tuesday sees the new shortwave moves along the southwesterly flow,
generating a new surface low. A similar setup to today, a band of
heavy precipitation is expected to setup over Ketchikan, Annette
Island, and Prince of Wales Island. Currently, only expecting
eastern PoW to stay snow, as the northerly flow through tomorrow
night is expected to keep cool temperatures in place. Ketchikan
and Metlakatla is the most uncertain, particularly in areas
exposed to southeasterly winds. If the cold, stable air from the
northeast indeed is strong enough, then the warm southeasterlies
are expected to decouple and lift, driving much of the stronger
rates. Downtown Ketchikan is mostly sheltered from northeasterly
winds, and is therefore the most likely to transition over to a
rain/snow mix or primary rain. South Tongass and North Tongass,
however, are more exposed to northeasterly winds, and therefore
are expected to stay snow longer. Similar story to the Ferry
terminal on the northern side of Metlakatla, which is exposed to
the northeast narrow channel.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...Very little changes
made in the long term forecast as the arctic boundary that pushed
down into the panhandle over the weekend continues to march
southward through midweek. Wednesday a quick moving low will
finish dropping snow in the southern panhandle before moving
inland over British Columbia and ushering in a cold dry second
half of the week. Building high pressure in NW Canada and
interior Alaska supported by a deep arctic trough in the upper
levels is creating offshore flow and ushering colder continental
air through the northern panhandle. This air is very cold with 850
mb temps plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range by mid week
across the northern panhandle and near  -10 C over the south. At
sea level this will translate to overnight lows ranging from
single digits above or below zero for the north to teens and 20s
for the south.

Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 20s for the north and into
the 30s for the south as we progress through the week. Coldest
temperatures look to occur Monday night through Wednesday night, but
sub freezing temperatures are likely to stick around into next
weekend. The panhandle from Icy Strait northward will be watched
as many locations will approach their criteria for cold weather
advisories or extreme cold warnings (especially the Haines and
Klondike Highways) through at least mid week. As of this forecast
discussion, an extreme cold warning for Skagway, primarily along
the Klondike Highway, was extended through noon Wednesday for
extremely cold temperatures as low as 45 degrees below.

Strong outflow winds of at least gale force will be blowing along
many northern panhandle channels through most of the week. A
strong 1035 mb high in the Yukon is the main driver of this outflow
and it will persist and strengthen to 1050 mb by late week. Expect
gusty winds out of many of the outflow areas in the northern
panhandle to start with, but expect outflow out of areas farther
south through the week as the Yukon high spreads into northern
British Columbia by late week. Gaps along the NE gulf coast will
serve as outlets for strong winds as well through the period. Aside
from the above mentioned hazardously cold temperatures, freezing
spray will become a more widespread problem for many marine areas in
the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast. The freezing spray
could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, near Taku Inlet, and
northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the week.

The continuing outflow will also keep most of the panhandle dry
through the mid and long range except for possibly the far south.
There is the possibility of a another snow event for the south
next weekend that is highly dependent upon an upper level ridge
moving over the panhandle at the start of the weekend followed by
another arctic trough replacing the one that dominates the state
for most of the week. One thing is for certain, winter has come to
southeast Alaska.

AVIATION.../through Tuesday evening/...Flying conditions continue
to improve this evening as the heavy band of snow that was set up
earlier across the central panhandle has diminished. VIS across
the Petersburg and Kake areas have been improving while the snow
has stopped in most other locations. Along with improving VIS,
CIGs have improved to VFR for some locations across the southern
panhandle while MVFR does remain very prevalent. Across the
northern half of the panhandle, VFR conditions remain but some
areas continue to experience strong outflow winds as well as some
LLWS from these winds, particularly Juneau and Yakutat. Conditions
for the southern panhandle are expected to deteriorate later this
evening as the next wave of snow will move in during the early
morning hours reinforcing MVFR conditions or potentially dropping
conditions to IFR with some LIFR conditions possible. Turbulence
and icing continue to be a concern from the AAWU especially for
icing across the southern panhandle while turbulence is possible
for the entire panhandle

MARINE...
Outside: Strong outflow winds continue to dominate the eastern
gulf coastal waters through Tuesday. Gale to storm force winds
with strong storm force gusts are blowing out of interior passes,
as well as any available drainage channel. Only a minor reduction
in strength is expected through Thursday, but winds are overall
expected to stay elevated through the week. Wave heights are
around 7 to 10 ft through the majority of the gulf, with areas
affected by the outflow winds seeing up to 15 ft waves persist
through the week. Freezing spray is possible with strong wind
gusts, mostly along the coastal waters. The central gulf is more
calm, only experiencing disorganized moderate breezes as the low
in the western gulf dissipates.

Inside: Strong gale to storm force outflow winds have persisted
through Monday and are expected to continue through the week. A
very strong pressure gradient in the northern panhandle is forcing
northerly storm force winds with gusts in the 60 kt range down
through Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage, as well as strong gale
force winds with storm force gusts out of Taku Inlet and through
the rest of the inner channels. Wave heights between 8 to 10 ft
are expected in areas of the strongest winds, with the rest of the
channels seeing around 6 ft or less and diminishing overnight.
Channel entrances may see up to 15 ft waves at their peak. The
pressure gradient is expected to only slightly relax overnight,
continuing gale force outflow winds in Lynn Canal and Stephens
passage and strong breezes to near gale force winds for the rest
of the channels through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Extreme Cold Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ320-325.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ325.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ326-329-
     331.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight AKST Tuesday
     night for AKZ328-330-332.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-013-651.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-022-031>034-053-643-644-663-664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-035-036-641-642-652-661-662-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...ZTK

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