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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1016 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.Evening, Hydrology, & Aviation Forecast Update...
Minor adjustments to ongoing forecast this evening, primarily
decreasing winds, decreasing precipitation chances, and clearing
skies through the overnight period with brief ridging moving in
aloft post-front. This break will be brief as on-shore showers
pick up again by early Monday morning, with heaviest precipitation
expected to arrive by 9am and lasting through 3pm over the
panhandle. Forecast rainfall totals through Monday currently
around 1 to 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 06z Tuesday/
Widespread VFR conditions across the panhandle this evening post-
FROPA, with ceilings AoA 4000ft and greater than 6 statute mile
visbys. Some lingering SW-ly LLWS still popping up on JAWS and VAD
profilers around 20 to 30kts, but expecting this to continue to
decline over the next few hours with no major impacts.

Through tonight, a low will push into the central Gulf of Alaska,
extending a front eastward towards the panhandle. Expecting
flight conditions deteriorate starting around 12z as precip first
overspreads into the panhandle. By 18z, predominate MVFR
conditions prevail with CIGS AoB 3000ft, with intermittent
visibilities down to 1 to 3SM within heavier showers, persisting
through 03z Tuesday as bulk of front pushes into the panhandle.

S to SE-ly LLWS increases by 18z Monday around 30kts as front
reaches the panhandle, increasing through 21z to 40 to 50kts with
strongest LLWS expected across S Panhandle TAF sites like Klawock,
Ketchikan. LLWS turns SW-ly post-FROPA around 30kts by 03z over
the panhandle as front pushes into BC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The front and heaviest precipitation has moved eastward through
Sunday evening and into British Columbia. Isolated minor flooding
issues continue from previous days heavy rainfall. After
collaboration with Ward Lake dam operators, the flood advisory for
the Ward Lake recreation area in the vicinity of Lake Connell has
been extended through Monday morning. Otherwise, no major
flooding issues are expected overnight into Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 436 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025...

.SHORT TERM...
The first major winter storm of the season is
largely behind us this Sunday afternoon, with many areas at or
near sea level reporting snow, even if only briefly. Along the Icy
Strait corridor, both Hoonah and Gustavus saw some minor snow
accumulations early Sunday morning, primarily driven by dynamic
cooling with the heavier precipitation rates. Some areas of Juneau
also had a wet and slushy start to the day, primarily seen on
elevated surfaces or vehicles in the Mendenhall Valley. Further
north along Lynn Canal, both Haines and Skagway have yet to see a
warm southerly push at the surface, therefore wet snow continues
to fall. For Haines, drainage flow down the Chilkat Valley
continues to keep the surface cold enough for wet snow to
accumulate, with a transition to more rain then snow, or straight
rain expected by this evening. A similar trend is expected for
Skagway, though northerly winds there are not as strong, and
therefore lower surface accumulations are expected at sea level.

Overall across the panhandle both surface winds and precipitation
will be on a downward trend overnight Sunday into Monday as a
quick moving ridge, serving as a buffer between systems, moves
over the panhandle. This is also expected to limit northerly
return flow in the inner channels ahead of the next gale force
front approaching Monday afternoon into Monday night.

This next system is largely lacking in upper level support, with
a deep upper level trough moving over the gulf, as well as mid
level steering flow being fairly stagnant. As a result, this low
is primarily expected to be on a downward trend in terms of
intensity and be fairly occluded by the time it meanders into the
northern gulf. However, as with this weekend storm, heavier
precipitation rates may once again lead to minor snow
accumulations at the surface for both Skagway and Haines Monday,
while being less likely for the Icy Strait corridor this time
around. Overall this storm is also expected to have much lower
storm totals since it will not have as much moisture to tap into
and will be weakening as it approaches. For more on what to
expect through the week, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...
As the low pressure system moves north and diminishes
through Tuesday, lingering showers will bring times of light
precipitation to the panhandle. Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions quickly develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system
moves to the south of the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow
and northerly winds across the inner channels as a high develops
over the Yukon. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales are
most likely, but the gradient could increase as we get closer.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. These temperatures are
nothing atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest
some places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the weak outflow, another system once again enters the
gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds
across the gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this
end of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold
air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central
panhandle. We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The
stronger the outflow is, the more likely the chance for snow will
be.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A strong low that brought high winds to
a majority of the panhandle continues to weaken and lift inland
over the panhandle Sunday afternoon. W gale force winds (35 kt)
will continue through the evening hours for most areas as the W
flow on the south side of the low takes over as the low moves into
the Yukon. Into tonight expect a diminishing trend in wind and
waves and a shift to southerly for wind direction before the next
front arrives Monday from the W bringing more gale force winds and
building seas upwards of 20 ft.

Inside Waters: With the low both aloft and at the surface finally
pushing into the panhandle Sunday afternoon, stronger southerly
winds in the south have progressed up to the Icy Strait corridor,
with Cross Sound flipping out of the West as of 4pm. These
westerly winds will continue Sunday night, diminishing into Monday
morning as the gradient slackens and eventually flips again with
the next approaching gale force front Monday night. The far
northern panhandle is still awaiting the southerly push, with Lynn
Canal continuing to blow out of the north around 15 kt. This flip
is expected by the early evening with winds reaching 25 to 30 kt.
Seas will mainly range around 4 to 6 ft with higher seas near
ocean entrances. Winds and seas should then start a gradual
diminishing trend late tonight into early Monday before starting
to increase again Monday afternoon as the next front pushes into
the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ323-327-328.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-651.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...NM

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