121
FXAK67 PAJK 030043
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - An incoming front is moving into the panhandle this afternoon
   and will track through the area tonight.

 - This front will bring mainly rain, some increased wind speeds,
   and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will last
   through Thursday.

 - Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...A passing front tonight
is a big character in the early parts of short term weather
story. This quick-moving front will track through tonight,
bringing rain and brief elevated wind speeds. Total rain amounts
tonight will be around a half inch or less, so not much by SE AK
standards.

Continued onshore flow will keep the rainy and cloudy weather in
place over the panhandle. Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be even
lighter than tonight, with most areas receiving less than a half
inch. Light rain lingers into Thursday but the overall trend is
diminishing rain for Thursday.

Overland wind speeds may pick up to around 10 to 20 mph as the
front pushes through. But once the front clears your area, wind
speeds will calm back down and stay on the lighter side through
Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...On Friday while one system
will likely be passing over the south, another low pressure will
move into the NE gulf with a frontal trough developing and extending
over the northern inner channels. Meanwhile on the north side of
this front, much colder air will push southward into the area from
interior Alaska and Canada, causing snow levels to steadily fall
Friday night through the weekend across the north. This is looking
to bring potential for significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines,
and Skagway on Saturday and continuing Sunday. As cold
temperatures push southward going into Sunday, snow levels will
fall to sea level across the Icy Strait area and Juneau. This will
cause a change over from rain to snow with the first significant
accumulations of the season in these areas. Locations like out
the road in Juneau will see more snow than downtown with this type
of pattern.

Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.

Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates over
the coming days on these potentially impactful weather events.

&&

.AVIATION...A low cloud deck around 500 ft has persisted through
the morning, becoming more dense and overcast in some areas and
scattering out in others. This is causing sites to vary between
MVFR and IFR conditions, with some southern sites dropping to LIFR
intermittently. As a front pushes east over the panhandle through
the afternoon, it will bring with it winds up to 10 kts, light
rain rates, and an overcast layer around 3500 ft. Southeast LLWS
around 30 kts will impact the outer coastal TAF sites for a few
hours as the front moves through. Conditions will remain lowered
behind the front, with onshore flow keeping moisture flowing into
the panhandle. The low few and scattered CIGs are expected to
still hold through the period, keeping VIS lowered and flight
categories somewhat variable. These low layers occasionally
thicken into a broken or overcast layer, bringing conditions down
to IFR or even LIFR periodically through the next 24 hours. Some
sites may see short breaks overnight, but calm winds will keep
CIGs and VIS lowered to at least MVFR into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front moves in from the west towards the panhandle
tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing a southeasterly fresh to
strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front moves eastward across the
Gulf, with easterly winds up to near gale (28 to 32 kt) near Cape St
Elias later tonight as the front moves into the NE Gulf coastline.
After the front moves through into tomorrow morning, winds will
overall decrease and switch to a more west to southwesterly
direction as onshore flow continues. Winds continue to diminish into
Wednesday night as the surface ridging develops in the Gulf with
winds largely remaining below 15 kt in the Gulf into Thursday ahead
of the next low moving into the Gulf. Seas predominantly 9 to 12 ft
tonight into Wednesday, subsiding Wednesday to between 7 and 9 ft by
Thursday.

Inner Channels: Frontal passage over the panhandle tonight through
tomorrow morning will bring southerly to southeasterly moderate to
fresh breezes (15 to 21 kt), with some areas seeing a brief increase
to strong breezes (22 to 26 kt), across the inner channels as the
front passes from W to E. The areas that will see winds at a strong
breeze tonight will be in northern Lynn Canal as the pressure
gradient stays strengthened, from near Point Fanshaw up to Grave
Point as surface ridging strengthens up Stephens Passage as the
front moves in, and Clarence Strait by late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Winds will quickly diminish following the front even as
onshore flow continues, with predominantly a moderate breeze (11 to
16 kt) across the inner channels by tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
night. Stephens Passage, northern Lynn Canal and near Point
Couverden are expected to stay a bit stronger with staying at a
fresh breeze for longer into tomorrow, before diminishing as well
into tomorrow night. Winds continue this diminishing trend across
the inner channels tomorrow night into Thursday as ridging sets up
in the Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Contino

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