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FXAK67 PAJK 030538
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
938 PM AKDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.UPDATE...For the 06z TAFs and to the Long Term Discussion.

The short term forecast remains on track with winds at or below 10
kts across marine areas with a few isolated areas experiencing
gusts to 15 kts. High ceilings of broken to overcast skies are
expected to continue tonight ahead of the next front that will
reach the panhandle early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Forecast for the panhandle in the short range
remains relatively unchanged, with the pattern dominated by a
broad vertically stacked low anchored over the central gulf this
weekend. One of the embedded vortices will rotate through bringing
enhanced shower activity and potentially some gusty winds to the
panhandle Saturday night into Sunday. The heaviest precipitation
from this feature is aimed at the central and southern panhandle,
with lower amounts expected for Icy Strait northward through the
period and greater chances for breaks between showers initially.
24 hour rain amounts look to top out somewhere between 1 - 1.5
inches, with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevations
in the southern panhandle.

Aside from erratic or gusty winds associated with any of the more
vigorous showers Saturday night into Sunday, widespread strong
winds are still not in the works in the short term, largely
remaining below fresh breeze (17-21 kts). For more information on
what to expect once this pattern finally starts to change next
week, see the long term discussion.


.LONG TERM... The remains of the frontal band moving through the
panhandle with higher pops that will be tapering off to chance by
late Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday is looking dry and that
continues to into Thursday. The dry weather is due to a ridge
moving across the eastern gulf and to the panhandle. Along with
this ridge, 850 mb temperatures are going to increase, in turn,
increasing temperatures at the surface. Above normal temperatures
are expected mid to late week. The NBM is showing maximum
temperatures in the low to mid 70s for many areas across the
panhandle.

Next weekend, a strong low over the western gulf and eastern
Bering Sea, moves towards the western Gulf. A front from that low
swings across the North Pacific and then into Western gulf and
toward the panhandle. With that low, there are starting to be
indications of a plume of moisture that is increasing IVT values
across the southern gulf. These higher IVT values reaching > 250
to 500 kg/m*s shows the chance of AR development. If this occurs,
we can see moderate to heavy rain over parts of the panhandle.
Currently this increase in moisture looks to be focused on
northern areas. We will continue to monitor the strong low and the
associated potential for heavy precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION.../06z Sunday to 06z Monday/...It has been an overall
quiet evening in SE AK. Winds have been on the lighter side around
the area. Some isolated marine areas had brief winds upwards of
15 knots reported at obs sites but the TAF sites have been light.
CIGs and VIS have been VFR but lowered conditions are expected
overnight tonight.

Increased precipitation and lowered CIGs will follow the incoming
band of rain as it moves NE up the panhandle through Sunday. Showers
are expected to follow the initial band up the panhandle, briefing
lowering CIGs to MVFR and increasing wind speeds as they pass over.

Continued chances for rain and lowered CIGs last into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: The next embedded low moving up the eastern gulf
will bring another tightening of the gradient this afternoon,
increasing winds along the coast from 15 kt to 20 kt once more
before diminishing later tonight to predominantly 10 kt or less
for Sunday. Seas of 5 to 6 ft are expected in this same areas
along the coastline. S to SW swell with wave period of 5 to 7
seconds expected.

Inside Waters: Most areas will remain light to up to 10 kt,
however there will be some winds up to 15 kts in many of the N-S
oriented channels as the next embedded low approaches later this
afternoon. As the low settles off of Baranof Island and allows for
winds to shift from SE to more E coming out of Cross Sound, there
will be some increased winds gusting to around 20 kt coming out
of Cross Sound, as well as around Point Couverden and near Scull
Island. Winds in Clarence Strait will also begin to pick up later
tonight shifting to be more from the SE after the shortwave pushes
through, with winds of 15 to 20 kt possible near Dixon Entrance
and along some of the geographically narrower parts of Clarence
Strait. Winds will begin to diminish throughout Sunday afternoon
to around 10 kts across most of the inner channels, with southern
Clarence Strait holding onto 15 kt a bit longer into the day.
Northern Lynn Canal will also see winds increase upwards of 15 kts
Sunday night as the short wave lifts northward.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....Bezenek/EAB
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...STJ

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