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FXAK67 PAJK 020624
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1024 PM AKDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation section...

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
The above normal temps and clear skies continue for SE AK.

Key Messages:
- Clear skies with near 0% chance for precip.
- Above normal afternoon highs in the 70s to around 80 likely for
  most of the area.
- With the exception of sea breezes, wind speeds will remain
  light.
- Some concern for spotty areas of marine layer development.

Details: High pressure continues over the gulf and it is the main
character in our weather story. This high pressure is keeping the
rain at bay and keeping the dry/sunny weather in place.

We are also seeing some very warm air aloft, upwards of 10+
degrees C above normal for this time of year at the 850mb level.
So, once that warm air is able to mix down to the surface, highs
in the 70s to around 80 are likely around the panhandle. That
being said, for those along the coast, slightly cooler temps in
the 60s to around 70 are most likely.

A couple variables that can break this temperature forecast are
sea breezes and marine layers.

For those near the water, if a sea breeze is able to develop,
that will keep temps much lower than the forecasted 70s. So the
farther away from the water you are, the more likely of seeing 70s
Tuesday afternoon.

The marine layer, while a lower chance of happening, would keep
temps cooler. For now, mainly looking at Yakutat for any marine
layer impacts, that would include fog, but if the extra moisture
is able to slide east into Icy Strait, it would keep afternoon
temps cooler for those in the northern panhandle.

.LONG TERM...
Continuing to see the high pressure linger over the Gulf,
allowing for warmer weather and preventing precipitation and cloud
cover from reaching the panhandle. This will keep the clear skies
and warmer than average temperatures across the panhandle through
Thursday, with the warmest temperatures in the mid to high 70s up
to around 80 degrees extending into Wednesday now. NBM guidance
for the southern panhandle and parts of Juneau and Haines show
probabilities of around a 40-60% chance of exceeding 80 degrees on
Wednesday afternoon. This is alongside 850 mb temperatures still
remaining 13-15 degrees C over the northern panhandle and 17-19
degrees C over the southern panhandle into 00Z Thursday. Inland
areas will be the warmest across these areas Wednesday, before
generally beginning to decrease into the end of the week. Thursday
looks to still be rather warm, still having some 13-15 degree C
temperatures at 850 mb and clearer skies in the northern panhandle
that morning and afternoon, but not expected to be as warm as
Wednesday.

Precipitation will begin to slowly push into the northeast Gulf
coast around Yakutat Thursday night into Friday, bringing some
light rain chances across parts of the panhandle throughout the
day Friday. These chances remain low still with between 15 and 30%
PoPs Friday into the weekend, as there is potential for the
surface high to still linger and prevent as much moisture actually
pushing into the panhandle. The largest barrier to precipitation
moving in will remain dependent on when the surface high pressure
actually breaks down and begins to allow for systems to move in
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...For the most part, the Panhandle
will keep seeing VFR conditions through the period as we remain
under the influence of a persistent ridge of high pressure. Here`s
where the exceptions come in. We are under a dirty ridge. So, the
Outer Coast TAF sites may see some reduced CIGs & VISs down to
within the MVFR/IFR category range tonight as a marine layer
builds in. PAYA will be affected the longest as it is already
impacting them this evening. As you move southeastward along the
Outer Coast & into the western half of the ICY Strait Corridor,
areas such as PAGS, PASI & PAKW, respectively, will be affected
less time before the marine layer begins to try to erode, once
again, during the day Tuesday. Areas such as PAPG, PAWG, &
potentially PAJN may experience some light FG, bringing them down
into the MVFR category late tonight into early Tuesday morning. As
for winds, they are anticipated to be generally light, except for
some enhanced sea breeze winds Tuesday. LLWS values remain benign
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: High pressure continues to control our skies here in SE
AK. Swell remains out of the south at 2ft 14-18 seconds, with wind
waves of 6 to 10ft less than 10 seconds along the Prince of Wales
(PoW) Coast and Dixon Entrance. These wind waves are being driven
by fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 knots) out of the NW,
highest winds off the coast of PoW and Cape Fairweather. There is
a decent chance to see near 30 knots of wind for a few hours off
the coast of PoW Monday evening into Monday night. Wind speeds
look to decrease for the second half of the week as the high
pressure weakens.

Inside: Sea breezes continue to be the primary concern for the
inner channels over the next 48 hours. Reported winds speeds have
been getting up to around 10 to 15 kts in the usual trouble spots,
Near Point Couverden, the tighter spots in Stephen`s Passage, and
in Southern Chatham Strait. Winds should calm down during the
overnight and stay lighter into Tuesday morning before picking
back up again for Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds look to decrease
for the second half of the week as the high pressure weakens.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions continue with poor RH recovery, relative
to rainforest standards, for areas above the marine influence
(above 1500ft). FFMC continues to drive the fire danger indices,
residing in the upper 80s to low 90s in select areas of Prince of
Wales, Ketchikan, and Skagway. The message remains consistent, we
do not expect large 10+ acre fire growth in old growth timber;
however, fire danger for fine flashy fuels continues to persist.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ319-325-328-330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS/AP
FIRE...AP

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