475
FXAK67 PAJK 242348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/...The main fcst challenge is
high temperatures mainly for the southern third of the Panhandle
as 850mb temps remain plenty warm enough at between 12 & 16 deg C
with the highest values farther east, toward the Misty Fjords /
Hyder area, skies remain clear to partly cloudy, & fcst model
guidance continues to agree about higher temperatures lasting
through tomorrow. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through
this evening for POW Island, Annette Island, Ketchikan Gateway
Borough, & Haines borough, & also until 7 PM Monday evening for
the Hyder area. This advisory in in effect primarily for areas
away from the water and/or at elevation that do not have much, if
any, marine moderation / sea breeze influence. Late tonight, some
areas of FG are possible around the Icy Strait corridor &
southward with less of a chance south of Wrangell. The Gulf Coast
may be impacted by low marine layer stratus clouds at times
through the period, which will keep high temperatures a bit lower
& low temps a bit higher for them. Winds will remain generally
on the lighter side through the period, but areas relatively near
the water that are not under thick marine layer stratus will
receive sea breezes that will make them rather gusty primarily
during the afternoon & into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...
Key messages:
- Ridging builds over the gulf and stays around through middle of
next week
- Sunny and dry with above normal temperatures, warmest temperatures
in the southern panhandle

Relatively benign forecast through the mid range remains largely
unchanged. The upper level pattern will feature a broad cutoff low
over the NE Pacific and a ridge building northward over the
panhandle, with a subsequent surface ridge over the gulf. Thermal
troughing over land areas in the daytime will lead to some enhanced
sea breezes in the usual places such as Skagway, as well as westerly
wind inflow in Cross Sound, likely reaching up to fresh breeze (17
to 21 knots) in mid to late afternoon. Subsequent diminishing of the
winds overnight, with Skagway and Haines likely seeing calm winds or
a reversal to drainage winds down the valley late overnight.

Clear skies and warmer 850 mb temperatures aloft between 12 and 15
degrees Celsius are still on tap to allow surface temperatures to
reach the mid 70s and near 80, with warmest temperatures seen
further inland and in the southern panhandle. Temperatures are
expected to dip slightly and then peak along the southern panhandle
mid to late week as surface winds shift out of the south through
Dixon Entrance. Stay tuned throughout the week for updates and
potential for more heat advisories across the area.

In terms of cooler or wetter weather, there remains a low
probability, up to 40 percent, for rain and more widespread cloud
cover to return to the northern gulf coast Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday afternoon starts off with widespread VFR
conditions across nearly all of the panhandle, with clear skies
across nearly all of the area, with the exception of Elfin Cove
and parts of Cross Sound, where the marine layer has been
maintaining a foothold. That foothold will expand tonight, as the
marine layer and fog potential return to outer coastal communities
and locations in the vicinity of the Icy Strait Corridor
alongside many of the marine channels. Visibilities and CIGS will
drop down to IFR/LIFR for the aforementioned locations overnight
tonight, and until ~18z Monday morning, when daytime heating
brings these areas back to VFR conditions.

Sea breezes which developed due to daytime heating will begin to
dwindle away through the overnight hours, and winds across TAF sites
will diminish to largely calm and variable overnight and into the
morning hours. Through the afternoon hours on Sunday however, sea
breezes are expected, and while most locations will see winds remain
under 15 kt, can`t rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts through the
evening hours. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...INSIDE WATERS...A generally light wind pattern is
expected through early next week. Winds generally around 10 kts or
less through much of the period are expected except in the
normally gustier spots like southern Clarence Strait, around Rocky
Island, Scul Island(Young Bay), Northern Lynn Canal, & perhaps
Cross Sound in the afternoons (up to 15-20 kts). One thing to
watch for again late tonight will be the development of FG over
portions of Icy Strait, Stephens Passage, Southern Lynn Canal,
Northern Chatham Strait, & along the Outer Coast from around
Sitka to around Yakutat through early week.

OUTSIDE WATERS...NW winds will gradually increase up to 20 kt into
Tuesday over the eastern Gulf of Alaska as the pressure gradient
tightens a bit from an area of high pressure that continues to
build-in & lower pressure to the east in British Columbia. We can
expect some areas of FG along the Outer Coast late Sunday night
through early Monday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ319.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330-332.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...JLC

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