864
FXAK67 PAJK 310031
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SHORT TERM...Snow showers continue to move across the area as the
low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska continues to kick up showers.
These showers have come to an end across the NE Gulf coast but
remain for most of the panhandle. Snow accumulations still remain
light for some portions of the panhandle while Petersburg, Prince
of Wales Island, and Juneau have been seeing some heavier showers.
The showers for the panhandle are expected to end this evening as
the support from the low pressure center dives to the south.
Outflow conditions have already started for places from Icy Strait
northward even though snow showers continue. These conditions are
expected to strengthen as the pressure gradient between Juneau and
Whitehorse tightens. Along with outflow winds, cold air is
expected to move in dropping temperatures across the panhandle.

.LONG TERM...Cold northernly outflow conditions will set in for this weekend,
with not much of a break from the cold going into next week. The
probability for precipitation for the panhandle will drop to 0% for
this weekend after the current low passes.

Strong northerly winds will largely affect the north-south oriented
channels, with Lynn Canal, Frederick Sound (particularly around Five
Fingers Island and coming out of Taku Inlet) and Chatham Strait
seeing gusts of up to 55mph Saturday and Sunday. Gale force winds
will remain for Northern Lynn Canal into next week, with 40-50mph
gusts continuing into midweek.

The northern panhandle will see low temperatures around or below 0,
with an Extreme Cold Warning going into effect from Friday night
through this weekend due to the strong northerly outflow winds
resulting in below 40 degree wind chills around White Pass.

Elsewhere around the panhandle will see high temperatures staying in
the 10-20 degree range, with a Cold Weather Advisory in effect for
Wrangell and Haines late Saturday into Sunday. The following week
will have some higher temperatures than this weekend, but highs will
remain in the 20s for most of the panhandle.

Into the tail end of next week there is a bit of uncertainty between
models of the location of the surface high in Canada, with some EPS
and GEFS members showing potential for it shifting east. This may
result in a shift in the direction of stronger winds, rather
impacting east-west oriented channels if lower pressures remain in
the Gulf. However, this remains very uncertain and is something to
watch as we go into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Highly variable conditions across the panhandle due to
snow showers. Many areas are varying between VFR and IFR (or
lower) as snow showers are proving to be rather moderate to heavy
in intensity. These showers are expected to diminish overnight
from NW to SE with most of the showers being out of the area by
friday morning. In the meantime, northerly outflow winds will be
starting up, and are already starting in the Lynn Canal area.
Winds are expected to increase overnight with most areas switching
to a N or NW by Friday morning. As outflow intensifies, many areas
will see visibility and ceilings improving to VFR, but areas of
turbulence will start to spread as well especially into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...The low in the Gulf continues to bring 15-20 kt winds to
the outer coast while seas remain around 12 ft. These conditions
are expected to decrease once the low moves to the south. In the
wake of the low, outflow conditions are expected to expand to all
terrain gaps.

For the Inner Channels, outflow conditions have started to develop
from the Icy Strait corridor northward at the time of writing
this. Elsewhere, winds are still flowing from the south in
response to the position of the low in the Gulf. These winds are
expected to shift to outflow conditions tonight. Gales are
expected for Lynn Canal with fully developed seas of 10-15 ft likely.
The gales are then expected to spread to Stephens Passage as
winds come out of Taku Inlet. Outflow conditions are expected to
persist through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ318.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ319.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ322-323.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ323.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325-326-
     328.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ325.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ329.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-651-
     661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC/LC
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...SF
HYDROLOGY...99

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