421
FXAK67 PAJK 070002
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the Monday,
  with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the north with highs in
  the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, highs trending
  cooler on Sunday and into early week with highs generally in
  the 60s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern next week with
  multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

- Stronger front brings widespread moderate to heavy rain for
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday/...Higher pressure over the eastern
gulf and associated marine layer clouds are the primary points of
interest for this Sunday across southeast Alaska. A bit of clearing
is visible in satellite imagery over the southern panhandle just
downstream of the ridge axis this afternoon, but this will gradually
fill in as the ridge moves eastward tonight into Monday. Overall the
marine layer is expected to rebuild over much of the inner channels
tonight with more patchy fog likely for Monday morning. An
approaching front will bring mainly light rain to the northern
panhandle and outer coast Monday, with totals of up to 1 inch
expected for the northern gulf coast over 24 hours, and lesser
amounts for the northern inner channels. This first front is
expected to basically stall over the northern gulf coast bringing
light rain through the period as the parent low decays heading into
Cook Inlet.

No break is expected however before a stronger front with a more
potent surge of moisture follows up on Tuesday, bringing moderate to
heavy rain to a majority of the panhandle from Tuesday morning into
Wednesday, spreading from the northeast coast and southward through
the panhandle through the day. With the fairly transient nature of
the heavier rain and antecedent soil and river conditions across the
area, there are currently no flooding concerns. However, rapid rises
in some area streams and rivers are possible. As of this forecast,
24 hour totals for this second round of heavier rain have trended
slightly higher ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible in steep terrain and southwest facing slopes.

Some increased southerly winds are expected with the first weaker
frontal passage Monday. The strongest winds are expected in the
northern gulf out of the east from a coastal jet reaching between 25
and 30 kt east of Kayak Island beginning Monday morning. Stronger
southerly winds are then expected along the inner channels with the
follow up front Tuesday, particularly for the central and northern
inner channels. For more on the expected conditions on the water,
see the marine discussion below.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Saturday / Flow pattern aloft
shifts more zonal headed into midweek that will mean quicker
system transitions. A stronger feature for late Monday to Tuesday
then Wednesday. A trailing feature along the boundary will likely
run along the feature, and then across the southern panhandle or
into British Columbia. Behind that, looks like SEAK may get
another break in the weather, that means we are still waiting for
the SEAK fall to arrive.

Rainfall totals for the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame are
looking to be maybe 1.5 to 2.25 inches for the 24 hr and up to
maybe 1 inch for the different portion of the panhandle.

Precipitation will be tapering off Thursday and skies bringing
more breaks and what is looking to be start of dry weekend, based
on the current solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...Most of the panhandle has seen improved flying
conditions by this evening with high end MVFR to VFR conditions
and most CIGs AoA 3500 ft currently. Conditions are expected to
deteriorate tonight for the outer Gulf coastline, CIGs dropping to
between 1500 to 2500 ft by 08-10z before the front moves in around
12z. The NE Gulf coast and PAYA will the worst conditions tonight
as this front will directly move into the area, with IFR
conditions likely after 12z and lasting through the morning, and a
chance of seeing LIFR CIGs and 2-4SM VIS after 16z.

Other parts of the northern and central panhandle will see the
drop to MVFR CIGs after around 10-12z tonight for Icy Strait
corridor and after 18z for the far inland northern panhandle,
alongside potential drops in VIS as some drizzle and patchy fog
may develop overnight before the front moves in. Some parts of the
southern panhandle will see some potential for patchy fog
overnight as well with the low winds and moisture, but aside from
fog potential and some lingering low stratus overnight bringing
areas to MVFR/IFR, these will primarily stay VFR through the
evening and during the day tomorrow. Winds and rain begin to pick
up into the far end of the TAF period as the front moves inland.


&&

.MARINE...
Outer waters: Generally similar forecast for the outside waters as
inherited, with some tightening timeframes and locations of
highest wind speed. The first front expected later tonight, is
currently should on satellite over the central gulf, transitioning
our northwesterlies to southeasterlies as it progresses eastward.
Expecting to see some minor barrier jet formation east of Cape
St. Elias of around 25 knots, but certainly a far cry from normal
for this time of year, with 20 knot winds elsewhere and up to 8 ft
seas.

Tuesday sees the stronger system move into the gulf, with
widespread fresh breezes to near gales in the gulf waters up to 11
ft. Not expecting much of a wind shift with this system, with
primarily southerly winds turning southwesterly through Tuesday
evening.

Inside Waters: A majority of changes to the ongoing forecast is
the expansion of higher wind speeds in southeast facing channels,
such as Chatham, Lynn, portions of Icy Strait, Stephens, and
portions of Frederick Sound. Set at least 25 knots extending down
the northern portion of Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage,
although guidance is trending towards these higher wind speeds to
continue to be expanded southward. Continued the gale for northern
Lynn Canal, with signs that it could be extended down to the
entireity of Lynn Canal, though, kept this at near gales for now.
Western Icy Strait do look to shift southwesterly Tuesday
afternoon into evening at 25 knots, increasing from 15 knots
earlier in the morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...NC

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