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FXAK67 PAJK 011404
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
604 AM AKDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday Night/...Light rain is expected to
continue through Tuesday as a weakening low-pressure system over
the eastern Gulf moves inland across the Panhandle. A developing
ridge over the Gulf on Tuesday will support this inland movement,
shifting over the eastern Gulf by late Tuesday into Wednesday. As
a result, rain rates and chances will ease slightly, with a 60-70%
chance of about 0.1 inches every six hours. However, an upper-
level low will maintain periods of light rain, primarily affecting
the central Panhandle. No significant impacts are anticipated.
Winds will stay light across the region, except for a daily
increase in the northern Lynn Canal and Skagway area due to a
south-to-north thermal gradient.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

We are looking for a pattern shift starting Wednesday as broad low
pressure over the eastern GULFAK weakens and weak ridging starts
to setup over SEAK. While a drier trend to the forecast Wednesday
into the weekend is expected, we won`t be rain free. The weak
nature of the ridge with periods of weak upper energy ejecting out
of the central GULFAK upper level low means that scattered showers
will still be around for Thursday and through the 4th of July
weekend. It should not be a washout and guidance does not have any
heavy precipitation through Saturday. We will have to watch an
approaching front moving east out of the central GULFAK on
Sunday. /Garmon

Temperatures at the end of the week begin to increase to near
typical values for this time of year with maximum temperatures in
the mid to high 60s. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid
50s to end out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers following behind the occluded front that
moved through the panhandle overnight continue into this morning,
bringing MVFR flying conditions across the central and southern
panhandle. The northern panhandle continues to see VFR conditions
with the exception of Yakutat, which has had some low CIGs this
morning between 700 and 1000 ft which will continue to impact the
area into late morning / midday. The central and southern
panhandle have seen some drops to IFR and LIFR overnight and into
this morning, with CIGS falling to 300 ft and occasional VIS drops
to between 1/2SM and 2SM, largely due to areas fogging out in the
morning hours with the high amount of moisture still near the
surface. This is expected to continue into the morning hours for
Juneau, Sitka, Petersburg, Ketchikan, and Klawock before
beginning to lift back to IFR (for the southern panhandle) to
low-end MVFR (for the central panhandle) before midday. CIGS
should begin to lift to above 3500 ft by this evening, bringing a
break to the majority of the panhandle for a few hours before CIGS
are expected to drop again to between 1500 and 2500 ft tonight as
rain chances pick up for tonight into tomorrow.

The only real wind concerns for aviation today is going to be for
the northern panhandle with winds picking up by midday, with
Skagway in particular expected to see 15 kt winds and gusts up to
25 kts as the pressure gradient increases throughout the morning.
These winds will begin to decrease to around 10 kt by later
tonight. There are no other concerns during this TAF period for
LLWS, and for the rest of the panhandle winds at the surface will
largely stay between 5 to 10 kt with some areas seeing calm and
variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: As the low continues to weaken, push
northeastward into the Panhandle, and the pressure gradient continues
to further relax, the winds will continue to decrease down to
around 5 to 10 kts along the Outside Waters through Tuesday night.
Waves will also continue to subside down to near 3 ft with a
period around 10 seconds.

Inside Waters: As this low continues to diminish in strength, wind
directions across much of the Inner Channels will become southerly
by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon, the northerly winds
across northern Lynn Canal will be overcome by a thermal gradient
that will allow for southerly winds of up to just shy of 20 kts.
Elsewhere, winds of 15 kts or less are expected, diminishing to 10
kts or less by Tuesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Glacier Lake Outburst event on the Taku River has
ended. The river has crested early this morning at 40.91 feet,
never making it to action stage or minor flood stage, and will
continue to fall throughout the day, today. People who live or
recreate on the Taku River or around Taku Inlet should remain
alert of the river conditions and potential remaining hazardous
debris in the water. At 5AM, the river stage was 40.84 feet. It is
forecast to fall below 38 feet by late this afternoon or early
evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....JG
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...JLC
HYDROLOGY...JLC

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