197
FXAK67 PAJK 221325
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
525 AM AKDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday Night/...A weather system that
brought rain to the Panhandle-mainly across the northern two-
thirds-starting Monday evening and overnight will begin to ease
later on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a new low-pressure system is forming
over the Gulf of Alaska and will push a front into the
northeastern Gulf and northern Panhandle. On Wednesday, the
heaviest rainfall is expected in the northern Panhandle. Rainfall
during the day is forecasted to range from a quarter to two-thirds
of an inch, with similar but slightly lower amounts expected
overnight. While flooding isn`t a concern, these amounts are a bit
above average for April, which is typically one of Southeast
Alaska`s drier months. Remnants of the low will linger in the
Gulf, bringing continued showers Wednesday night into early
Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/...For the late week and
weekend dealing with the uncertainty of where the Wednesday Gulf low
will track. There  have been two main tracks depicted by operational
models and the ensembles. One keeps the low in the NE gulf, stronger
and longer, thus continuing Eastern Gulf winds and Panhandle shower
activity well into Friday and possibly Saturday. The other track
drops the low to the SE along the panhandle coast, with a faster
drying trend for the northern regions and SE Gulf winds staying up.
For the morning operational models more lined up with the northerly
track (ECMWF. NAM, Canadian), with GFS dropping to the south, but
keeping the low intact will into Saturday. Run to run consistency
with these models isn`t helping and ensembles while not as diverse
still are not exactly lined up. Keeping with a mostly cloudy chance
of rain forecast with this uncertainty, for now. For the weekend a
wide range of solutions for upstream features. Another surface low
and associated front is expected in the western gulf and impacting
SE AK Monday into Tuesday. If the low center remains further west it
will be keep precip for the region but would not anticipate much in
the way of elevated winds. Low forecast confidence is still the
word, so expect details to change as hopefully a steadier trend
develops.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Wednesday/...Front draped over the panhandle
will continue to bring showers and low CIGs to a majority of the
panhandle Tuesday. CIGs range from around 3000 ft to below 1000 ft
for some coastal communities, particularly the far southern
panhandle this morning. Surface winds remain relatively light
across the board with no expected LLWS for the period. Some
improvement is likely through the day though MVFR conditions will
dominate. Stronger front set to impact the panhandle Wednesday
morning bringing more moderate to heavy rain to the outer coast,
and LLWS primarily to the central and southern panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Winds are expected to remain below 20 knots, and sea
conditions in the outer waters will stay near or just under Small
Craft Advisory levels until a new front moves through the eastern
Gulf and approaches the Panhandle on Wednesday. This system will
bring Gale-force winds to the northeastern Gulf of Alaska, with 25
to 30 knot winds-meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria-spreading
out from that area into the rest of the eastern Gulf and the ocean
entrances of the Inner Channels.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ643-644-651-652-662>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...JLC

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