102
FXAK67 PAJK 231412
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
512 AM AKST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SHORT TERM...An active weather pattern continues for SEAK with a
series of lows continuing to move up towards the northeast gulf
coast. The frontal bands will continue to bring light rain and
cloud cover for the panhandle, with less than an inch accumulation
for the next 24 hours. The pattern of warmer temperatures will
continue with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the upper 30s.
Winds will weaken as the front passes but continue blowing in a
southeasterly direction up the channels.

.LONG TERM...Continued active pattern for the foreseeable future (essentially
until the end of next week) with multiple shortwaves troughs and
ridges moving over the eastern gulf, resulting in multiple systems
with small breaks in between. Whether good news or bad,
precipitation type looks to stay predominantly rain for the sea
level areas, with upper elevation roads in the northern panhandle at
risk of some snow development.

Monday will see a system continuing to march up from the south,
bringing moderate to fresh breezes from the southeast and light to
occasionally moderate rainfall. No changes were made to the QPF
forecast, and minor changes were made to the marine forecast, mainly
to lower wind speeds in areas which are sheltered to a SE wind. The
front moving up on Monday looks weaker than expected, with the
shortwave ridge following the trough becoming less amplified. The
result is a tad more rainfall overnight on Monday into Tuesday with
little break.

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a possibly more impactful system moving
in from the south. Currently, the main source of uncertainty comes
from aloft directing flow, which continues to be bimodal in nature.
Model progression seems to indicate a stronger system, which in turn
amplifies the trough aloft, steering the system south of the
panhandle. While more guidance indicates that this system will dig
south, confidence was not high enough to make a change from the more
impactful forecast currently being portrayed. The first, less likely
solution at around 40% chance of occurrence, sees the directing
flow towards the southern panhandle. The second, directs the
energy south of the panhandle and toward Haida Gwaii. While this
is mainly focused over the marine areas, such as southern Clarence
Strait and Dixon Entrance, will continue to monitor the potential
going forward. Similarly for precipitation, the more likely
solution has lower rain totals at around 0.5-1.5 inches in a 24
hour period and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...We are seeing heightened visibility while ceilings
remain lower, keeping us in the VFR to MVFR range. As the low
continues to track north through the morning, SEAK will see
more drops in visibility and ceilings before they begin to raise
again towards the end of the period. This will bring light rain
throughout the day with occasional drops of visibility into IFR
conditions. Gusts in Haines and Sitka will continue to diminish
into the later morning.


&&

.MARINE...In the gulf, active weather will persist with moderate
to fresh S-SE winds resulting in elevated seas. Strong to near-
gales will accompany a stronger storm mid-week.

In the inner channels, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
persist through early this week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK/LC/BC
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...ZTK/LC/BC
MARINE...ZTK/LC/BC

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