876
FXAK67 PAJK 120634 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
934 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast as weakening low in the far
NE Gulf has pushed inland towards the Yukon over the last few
hours. Nudged up wave heights along coastal Baranof Island to
match current buoy obs around 15ft with onshore flow and elevated
winds for Skagway are persisting a bit longer than expected, but
still anticipating a continued downward trend through tonight. In
this lows wake, predominate on- shore flow and intermittent
showers will continue through the overnight hours, diminishing
across the interior panhandle through early Wednesday afternoon
from SE to NW across the panhandle. Potential for isolated dense
fog development overnight for portions of the southern panhandle
if skies clear for any measurable time tonight, however with
persistent scattered to overcast skies, forecast confidence is low
at this time with upper level clouds moving in from a system in
the N Pacific.

.AVIATION.../through 06z Thursday/
MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this evening
as weakening low pushes inland, with showers intermittent
overspreading the area, CIGS AoB 5000ft, and visbys as low as 4SM
in the heavier showers. Through the rest of tonight, expecting
MVFR trends flight conditions to become predominate with CIGs AoB
3500 through early Wednesday morning, improving to predominate VFR
flight conditions once more by 18 to 21z Wednesday. Potential for
some isolated fog development for southern panhandle TAF sites
through early Wednesday morning with any sky clearing, however
forecast confidence is low with expected persistent SCT to OVC
deck. Showers diminish from SE to NW across the interior panhandle
through early Wednesday afternoon. However, with persistent
onshore flow, kept showers and rain continuing for Yakutat and
Sitka through Wednesday.

Winds across the panhandle continue to decrease through the
evening, except for Haines and Skagway with sustained winds 15 to
20kts and gusts up to 25 to 35kts. Expecting widespread winds to
continue to diminish, reaching 10kts or less by 16 to 19z across
the area TAF sites, including Haines and Skagway, as gradient
relaxes and weak off shore begins. No LLWS concerns through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 349 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Diminishing gale force low brings more rounds of rain and
  elevated winds to the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday

- Diminishing snow showers for upper elevation highways through
  Tuesday evening

- Isolated thunderstorms along outer coast through Tuesday night

- Northerly and easterly winds begin midweek bringing cooler
  temperatures and drier conditions across the panhandle
  Wednesday and Thursday night.

- Active weather returns at the end of the week continuing into
  next week.

SHORT TERM...The weakening gale force low finally pushed inland
over Yakutat Bay Tuesday afternoon, bringing strong winds as well
as a significant wind shift to Yakutat and the nearby coast over
the course of a few hours. With the low advancing inland over the
Yukon and interior Alaska, winds over the gulf and NE coast will
continue to diminish through Tuesday night. For the far northern
inner channels, the track of the low will keep strong southerly
winds in Lynn Canal into the evening hours as well as strong wind
gusts up to 40 mph for Skagway and Haines for a similar time.
Elsewhere across the panhandle, any remaining southerly winds will
continue to diminish through Tuesday night becoming generally
light at less than 10 kt by Wednesday morning. Weak northerly
winds will then gradually develop with high pressure gradually
building over the interior and a low passing to the south of the
panhandle later Wednesday and into Thursday.

For the central outer coast, instability in the wake of the
previous front combined with onshore flow into the coastal
mountains has the potential to continue producing isolated
thunderstorms through Tuesday night, diminishing by early
Wednesday morning. The likeliest area for these to develop is near
Sitka Sound, spreading northward through the night. These would
likely produce gusty erratic winds and localized moderate to
heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the panhandle, showers will
continue to diminish into Wednesday from south to north.

For the Klondike Highway, snow showers are expected to gradually
taper off this evening with accumulations up to 2 inches, and
little to no snow accumulation from scattered showers through the
day Wednesday. The Haines Highway is expected to be more
sheltered from any remaining showers with little to no
accumulation through Tuesday night.

As showers diminish and high pressure begins to build into the
gulf from the southwest, some clearing may allow for some fog
development across more sheltered parts of the inner channels
Wednesday night with light to variable winds.

LONG TERM...
Lighter winds and drier weather continues into Thursday. During
the day Thursday, a weak embedded low in the northern gulf has the
chance of bringing light showers across the gulf waters. Mainly
northerly and easterly winds will bring drier and cooler
continental air over the panhandle. Temperatures across most of
the panhandle will see overnight lows getting below freezing
Thursday night. Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of
less than 30 degree temperatures over the southern panhandle
Thursday into Friday. The central and northern panhandle both
have a medium to high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25
degrees. These temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of
year, but it would be the coldest most places have gotten so far
this season.

Behind drier weather and cooler temperatures, another system once
again enters the gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again
increases winds across the gulf and panhandle. It sends moderate
precipitation across the panhandle as well. The main question with
this end of week system is what precipitation type will fall.
With cold air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the
central panhandle. The colder the temperatures are leading up to
the weekend system, the more likely it is for precipitation to
fall as snow into the Icy Strait Corridor. If it does end up being
the right atmosphere for snow, any snow accumulation near the Icy
Strait Corridor is likely to remain low.

This active weather then continues into the start of the week as
multiple fronts make their way across the gulf into the
panhandle. There is currently quite a bid of spread between
models and ensembles on where the main low pressure systems
track.

MARINE...
The remnants of a gale force low is spinning and tracking
northward quickly this afternoon. The big story for the marine
waters is an overall quieter forecast with a couple quick-moving
weak lows through the gulf with early next week being the next
chance for a frontal passage that could bring gale force winds.

Outside Waters: For tonight into tomorrow, winds will continue to
decrease closer to gentle breezes allowing for calming weather
across the Gulf and outer coast. Wave heights should continue to
decrease to 5-7 ft by tomorrow afternoon

Beyond tomorrow, Friday is the next round of south to southeast wind
speeds getting up to 15 to 20 knots with 20 to 25 knots for Friday
night. Wind speeds decrease for Saturday but come back up to 20 to
30 kts, potential or 35 kts, by Monday.

Inside Waters: Wind speeds have remained elevated in Lynn Canal with
reports upwards of 30 kts for most of the day today. Other inside
channels have been reporting decreasing wind speeds today.

For tonight into tomorrow, wind speeds will continue to decrease to
around 5 to 10 kts by late tonight. The exception will Lynn Canal
where speeds around 10 to 15 kts are more likely. Late tonight into
tomorrow, winds look to swing to a more northerly direction so
outflow conditions continue to look likely for the Inner Channels.

Beyond tomorrow, late Friday is the next chance for inner channel
wind speeds to increase again to around 10 to 20 kts with those
elevated speeds likely to linger into the weekend. Elevated
southerly winds around 20 to 30 knots are possible early next week
as the next front moves through. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GJS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau