323
FXAK67 PAJK 042352
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Not too many changes to the on going forecast for this
upcoming gale force system Friday night and into Saturday.
Yakutat is just starting to see some cloud cover and an increase
in easterly winds. This front, associated with a vertically
stacked low in the northern gulf, will extend down through Dixon
Entrance, bringing southeasterly gale force winds for the outer
coast and near gale force winds for the inner channels. Seas look
to approach 15 feet in the NE gulf coast, reducing down to 11-12
ft near Dixon Entrance. Clarence Strait, in particular, has a 80%
chance of achieving gale force sustained winds with violent gale
force gusts. As this front is transitory, rainfall totals do not
look impressive, however, moderate to heavy rain rates on the
leading edge of the front will ensure that most areas will have a
very wet overnight and Saturday morning. In the post frontal
environment, winds will shift to the southwesterly and maximize
around 20 knots, and widespread showers will be present for the
rest of the day. Down in the southern panhandle, CAA, CAPE values
at around 1200 ft will approach 200 J/kg, and bulk shear values of
around 15 knots may yield at least one or two thunderstorms.
Confidence is low on any thunderstorm development, therefore was
left out of the on going forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...A strong low responsible
for throwing a gale force front towards the panhandle in the short
term will slowly move into the western gulf through the weekend.
Big picture is that the entirety of the panhandle can expect to
widespread rain showers through the beginning of next week after
the initial front By Sunday the main low will be weakening and
meander over the gulf, with short wave features rotate around it
periodically giving fresh impulses of moisture. Overall an active
fall pattern.

As of now, model guidance is suggesting seasonable moderate
precipitation for the majority of the panhandle for this period.
For the southern panhandle, CW3E does have IVT values reaching
around 500 kg/m/s, suggesting a low end AR event. This will be
followed closely in the coming days in case of any upward trend or
shift in the orientation of the plume of moisture. In addition, a
more vigorous short wave feature on Sunday will likely bring
gales to outer coastal waters with the potential for some gales
near ocean entrances and widespread small craft or near small
craft conditions for the inner channels. All in all, a wet and
windy weekend lies ahead.

&&

.AVIATION.../ through Saturday / Frontal band approaching the
coastline this evening and moving through overnight. Rain and wind
with front and ceiling lowering to MVFR conditions. Winds shear
with the front coming through will be one of the biggest hazards
however the this will occur from about 9 pm to 8 am. Westerly
onshore flow for outer coastal areas.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 AM AKDT Saturday through late tonight for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Bezenek

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