494
FXAK67 PAJK 120534
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
934 PM AKDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
overnight into Saturday. There could be some areas of fog and
mist, particularly near PAPG late tonight into early Saturday, but
this is not expected to linger well into the morning. A marine
layer is developing well offshore, but any organized areas of low
cloudiness should remain west of the coastline through Saturday.
Speeds will average 10 kt or less through the period with sea
breeze formation in/near Lynn Canal and Icy Strait Saturday
afternoon.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure dominates through the weekend with drier
  conditions, more sunshine, and high temperatures in the mid 60s
  to low 70s.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ A ridge over the Gulf of
Alaska rotates to a clockwise pattern, and leading to a flat ridge
over the northern gulf and south coast of the state. The
associated weather Friday night through the weekend is going to be
dry, with some thin high clouds.

A short wave at mid levels is ushering the trough form Bristol Bay
over the Anchorage age and then the will slide across the northern
portion of the panhandle Saturday and to early Sunday.  Expect to
see winds taper off overnight and lighter wind Saturday and Sunday.

May see a touch of fog overnight at one of typical fog location
around Petersburg.  Am not anticipating dense fog less than a 1/2
mile but it may be localized around Kupreanof Island overnight
night.

Temperatures through the weekend are expected to be slightly warmer
than normal for highs and near normal for the lows.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...High pressure persists
over the Gulf of Alaska, continuing to keep the region seasonably
dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low
pressure system tracking east across western and central mainland
Alaska will send several fronts across the northern half of the
region, bringing increasing chances of light rain through the
week. Expect an initial, lighter pass of showers on Tuesday, with
precipitation amounts increasing as a secondary front pushes in by
Wednesday morning along the NE Gulf Coast, where it is likely to
see the greatest amounts. While 24-hour rainfall totals are
trending higher with recent model runs, guidance spread remains.
Some areas, like Yakutat, could see locally heavy rainfall
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The high pressure ridge is expected to weaken as the low pressure
system approaches from the west. Northwest flow along the ridge axis
will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm
Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along
exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens. Also with this pattern, winds are likely to strengthen
near Skagway as these fronts pass. Increased cloud cover in the
north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild
overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with
highs remaining in the mid to high 60s. Some guidance is starting
to pick up on additional activity later in the week, though
outside of the current forecast period. Stay tuned for more
information as we get closer.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to take
hold for most of the Gulf this afternoon. As such, winds will
continue to be N-NW for places along the eastern portion of the
Gulf. Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly
component to the wind. Wave heights have trended down with the
reduced winds but will continue to see effects from the westerly
swell moving into the area. As the high pressure moves to the east,
winds for the central and southern portion of the gulf will increase
to 15-20 kt while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds
remaining around 10-15 kt.

Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly winds continue to weaken this
afternoon as high pressure gains more control over the Gulf of
Alaska. This will allow for wind speeds to drop from 15-20 kt down
to 5-10 kt this evening. With the decreasing winds, wave heights
should diminish as well with waves dropping to less than 3 ft for
most locations. Going into the day tomorrow, winds could pick up for
portions of the Inner Channels with daytime sea breezes kicking in.
The strongest places look to be Cross Sound into Icy Strait and Lynn
Canal. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 kt during the
daytime hours and will see some increased, choppy seas.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...SF

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