325
FXAK67 PAJK 212246
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Mostly clear skies and warm
temperatures are the rule of the day for most areas. The
exceptions are the NE gulf coast and Cross Sound areas where
marine layer clouds are keeping things much cooler in those
locations. Several inland locations in the south have reached 80
degrees or higher already this afternoon including on Annette
Island which was added to the heat advisories for today.

Through Tuesday night, cloud cover and how it will affect
temperatures is the main concern. Marine layer clouds will
continue to effect the outer coast through the period resulting in
lower high temperatures there, especially from Cape Edgecombe
northwestward. For the inner channels, today is expected to be the
warmest day. Tuesday is also expected to be warm, but with flow
changing to slightly onshore again and some higher level cloud
cover possible over the area, high temperatures are not expected
to get as warm as Monday. Widespread 60s and 70s will be the norm,
but 80+ is not expected. Sea breezes will also still be in effect
during the afternoons with localized areas possibly seeing up to
20 kt winds at times.

Late Tuesday night may see the return of some light rain for the
outer coast NW of Sitka and the Icy strait corridor from
thickening marine layer cloud processes. Expecting more light
rain/drizzle so rainfall amounts will likely be rather light.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through next weekend/ The upper level
jet stream pattern will be changing for the mid to long term as
the persistent ridge over the gulf flattens with a westerly jet
being directed at the northern panhandle by Wednesday then sliding
southward. This will translate to the surface seeing some more
clouds (marine layer clouds likely to be pushed in) and
increasing chances of showers, although forecast confidence on
this part is on the lower end. Also, with that west wind, places
on the lee side of the mountains (Chatham Strait and other inner
channels/valleys) will likely still have some good sunny breaks,
but not as warm as Sunday/Monday.

The W-NW jet continues to be directed at the panhandle through
Friday with short-waves passing through, brining more potential
for rain showers. A more pronounced digging trough looks to move
out of the interior into the gulf for the end of the week,
becoming a closed low over the northern gulf on Saturday. This
will set up a front approaching the area with greater chances for
widespread rain. Slight differences in the track of the low will
be the difference in wet/dry across the north, the south
(particularly the southern outer coast), should see rain either
way. The large area of low pressure in the gulf looks to hold
through the weekend, which likely means continuing active weather
in the outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...Marine cloud deck out over the Gulf of Alaska Waters
that moves into the coastal locations like Yakutat, Sitka and
possibly Klawock. Lower clouds spread into Cross Sound and may
push into Gustavus area. Should see clouds burn back away from
coastal areas with solar heating Tuesday.

Predominately clear skies across the inner channels Monday
evening, to Tuesday morning. Sea Breeze winds in the afternoon to
early evening and reforming Tuesday may have some localized
turbulence.


&&

.MARINE...Inside water: Sea breeze circulations remain the main
concern for the inner channels for the next few days mainly during
the afternoons and evening. Some of these sea breezes could reach
20 kt at times. Otherwise winds are mostly 15 kt or less across
the inner channels with seas of 3 ft or less.

Outside Waters: Generally W to NW winds of 15 to 20 kt rule the
gulf with some areas (central gulf and near shore waters off
Prince of Wales Island) reaching 25 kt winds. Highest seas have
been off Prince of Wales Island with combined seas up to 8 ft.
Most of that has been wind wave while there has been a small swell
(4 ft S swell of 15 sec). Winds generally will be staying around
15 to 25 kt out of the W across the gulf for the next few days.
Seas however will be building to up to 10 ft across the central
gulf over the next few days as waves from the strong gap flow in
the western gulf work their way into the eastern gulf.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The warmer temperatures across the northern panhandle
is increasing melt water runoff from glaciers and any remaining
snow at higher elevations through Tuesday. As of this morning the
Chilkat River did reach bankfull and warm temperatures continue
today. The flood watch that was out for the Chilkat River has been
changed to a Flood Advisory as minor flooding is expected to
start late tonight and will likely last into Thursday before
cooler weather drops river levels back below minor flood stage.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....Ferrin
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL

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