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FXAK67 PAJK 181325
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
525 AM AKDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Northerly outflow will continue to strengthen
through the day Friday, with Haines and Skagway seeing
accumulating snow on the highways as well as down at sea level. A
winter weather advisory remains out for both communities through 1
pm Friday afternoon as snow and rain showers continue through the
early afternoon. The Icy Strait Corridor communities continue to
primarily see cold rain overnight though higher rain rates
combined with the strengthening outflow through the morning and
afternoon hours could see a transition to more mixed precipitation
or straight snow. However, little or no snow accumulation is
expected for these areas as of this forecast.

For the southern half of the panhandle, winds will pick up due to
a stronger low pressure system approaching and eventually moving
inland near Dixon Entrance. This will cause winds in Clarence
Strait to jump as well as bring a fresh influx of widespread rain
to the area. As this strong low moves inland, winds along
north/south oriented channels will increase due to the tightening
pressure gradient. For more information on whats in store this
weekend, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Saturday begins the
outflow pattern with NW flow aloft and a surface low pressure
system passing over/slightly south of the southern panhandle.
Strong breezes to near gales out of Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and
the upper arms of Glacier Bay are likely as the low passes south.
With the winds comes the cold as well: temperatures will dip into
the mid 20s by late Sunday and through Monday morning for the
northern half of the panhandle and likely get to at least below
freezing for the southern panhandle. In sheltered areas such as
the back of Mendenhall Valley, temperatures could dip as low as 20
degrees.

The pattern will shift yet again on Tuesday as a frontal band from
a potent system far up near the north slope will push all the way
over from the Bering Sea over the SE AK. Currently, this system
looks to bring rain and snow transitioning to all rain as
southerly flow becomes dominant. No major accumulations of snow or
rain is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings of 1200 to 3000 for most of the northern
panhandle conditions. A boundary between cold air and warm air
lies along the Icy Strait corridor this morning and the snow on
the north site has visibilities under 2 miles, meanwhile
visibilities are 3 to 6 miles in the rain over the central
panhandle.

Expect that not much change to the weather through today as the
upper level trough starts to move through the panhandle later
tonight, until then the precipitation will continue for the
panhandle. For most parts snow should give way to rain as the day
warms slightly.


&&

.MARINE...A weak low in the northern gulf and high pressure in the
Yukon have allowed for a outflow situation to develop in the
northern inner channels. A second low is expected to move up from
the Northern Pacific bringing increased winds ands seas to the area
as it passes through the Dixon Entrance area. Current thinking is
that the strongest winds will be storm force but will remain south
of the area in Hecate Strait. Gales are expected to move into
Clarence Strait. Heading into the weekend, outflow conditions look
to expand across the area as we head into the start of next week.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for
     AKZ318-319.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ322.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-032-036-053-641>644-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...Bezenek

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