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FXAK67 PAJK 110639 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.Evening Update and 06z Aviation Update...
As of 930pm AK time. A front continues to push northeast across
the Panhandle Monday night, bringing gusty winds and moderate-to-
heavy showers, with some lightning reported along Baranof Island.
Snow is becoming more apparent for Haines Highway, impacting the
upper portion of the road system west of the Chilkat River bridge.
Earlier this evening a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for an
additional 4 to 6 inches of snow through 12 pm Tuesday, with the
most anticipated near the border. The heaviest showers are
currently ongoing and will weaken through Tuesday afternoon. A
Winter Weather Advisory is also out for the Klondike Highway near
White Pass, with 6 to 11 inches of snow expected by Tuesday
afternoon.

Touching on winds/seas a southerly surge is currently moving
across the inner channels, with Point Couverden, Five Finger, and
Grave Point reporting southerly gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These
elevated southerly winds will continue to push north tonight
through Lynn Canal, bringing breezy conditions into Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will subside by Wednesday morning bringing a
short break in more active weather.

For mariners planning on the cross sound PWS transit, coastal
buoys are reporting southerly seas 13 to 16 ft near 10 seconds,
with satellite derived winds highlighting gale force conditions
for most of the coast. A healthy fetch of SW gales is aimed at
Chichagof/Baranof, with seas expected to increase to 20 to 25 ft
by Tuesday morning. For the Fairweather grounds seas near 18 ft
are forecasted by early Tuesday. Seas diminish Tuesday night,
likely below 10 ft by early Wednesday morning.

&&

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...
Front continues to push across the panhandle this evening as a
low in the northern Gulf slowly meanders towards Yakutat. As this
front pushes inland, seeing MVFR to VFR flight conditions with
CIGS AoB 6000ft with intermittent IFR visibilities as low as 2sm
up to 4sm within the heavier showers.

Through the rest of tonight and into Tuesday morning, predominate
MVFR flight conditions prevail by 12z along and north of the Icy
Strait corridor with CIGS AoB 3500ft and intermittent IFR visbys
within heavier showers, including Juneau. Not expecting much
improvement in flight conditions for Tuesday, especially across
the N Panhandle as low finally pushes into the NE Gulf coast and
dissipates. On-shore flow should keep showers with MVFR to low VFR
flight conditions persisting into Thursday afternoon across the
panhandle. With the bulk of the system in the N Gulf, expecting
better conditions across the S Panhandle TAF sites through
Tuesday, with higher forecast confidence of longer periods of VFR
flight conditions in the afternoon.

Some LLWS concerns through early Tuesday afternoon with the
aforementioned low tracking inland. Broad SW-ly flow aloft 25 to
35kts along and north of a line from Sitka over to Petersburg,
strengthening moving towards Gustavus. With the low pushing
between Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape, Yakutat could see NE-ly LLWS
around 20 to 30kts with a easterly surface wind through early
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Diminishing gale force low brings more rounds of rain and
  elevated winds to the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday

- More snow for upper elevation highways through Tuesday afternoon

- Weak outflow begins midweek bringing cooler temperatures across
  the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday night.

SHORT TERM...
A weakening gale force low is slowly making its way into the
northern gulf Monday afternoon after pushing a gale force front
into the panhandle earlier in the day. With continued weak
steering flow aloft, this feature will gradually move inland along
the northeast gulf coast through the night with broad weak
troughing lingering over the northern gulf coast Tuesday.
Increasing winds will accompany the circulation as it lifts
inland, with both Haines and Skagway likely to see gusts up to 35
mph Monday night. Onshore flow will continue into Tuesday and
shower coverage will gradually diminish heading into midweek with
some fog potential for the southern panhandle Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

With the track of the low shifting slightly eastward from
previous forecasts, more moisture is expected to be pulled up Lynn
Canal into the far northern panhandle, and a winter weather
advisory is in effect for long duration snow accumulations of 7 -
12 inches for the Klondike Highway through Tuesday afternoon with
gusty winds Monday night. The Haines Highway is also expected to
receive snow during this time, though to a lesser extent due to
downsloping with the direction of flow aloft.

LONG TERM...
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions quickly develop after
Tuesday as a low pressure system moves to the south of the
panhandle. This will bring weak outflow and northerly winds across
the inner channels as a high develops over the Yukon at around
1010mb. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near Skagway and
across Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales of 20
to 30 kts are the most likely. This is mainly seen in similarities
in model pressure gradients, showing around a 3 mb difference
between Skagway and Juneau late Wednesday.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler
temperatures across most of the panhandle with overnight lows
getting below freezing across the panhandle Thursday night.
Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of less than 30
degree temperatures over the southern panhandle Thursday into
Friday. The central and northern panhandle both have a medium to
high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25 degrees. These
temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of year, but it
would be the coldest most places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the
gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds
across the gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this
end of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold
air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central
panhandle. We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The
colder the temperatures are leading up to the weekend system, the
more likely it is for precipitation to fall as snow into the Icy
Strait Corridor.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: A weakening gale force low continues to track
into the northern gulf, set to move inland later Monday night. The
primary front has moved through the outer coast with winds now
primarily out of the south across the eastern gulf. Seas behind
the front have increased to around 13-16 ft from Cape Spencer down
to the Dixon Entrance. Seas will continue to build as the low
center moves closer to shore bringing closer to 20-25 ft seas
Monday night into Tuesday from Cape Fairweather down to Cape
Decision. Near shore waters around Cape Edgecumbe will also see a
brief period of gale force winds on the southern side of the low
as it approaches the northeast coast.

Inside Waters: The next front has pushed into the inner channels
this afternoon, with winds increasing to strong breezes to near
gales. Strongest winds have been near Cape Fanshaw with gusts to
45 kt in the afternoon, as well as sustained gales in the upper
end of Clarence Strait. Behind the front, winds are expected to
remain between fresh to strong breezes as onshore flow persists
bringing continued showers to the area. Winds continue to diminish
heading into Tuesday as the gradient continues to weaken before
high pressure moves into the Gulf for the middle of the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662-663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
     651-652-661-664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AP
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

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