999
FXAK67 PAJK 072301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A gale force low has moved into western gulf continuing to
   move Northeast.
 - Gale force winds have begun as of this afternoon with 40 kts
   near Kayak Island.
 - Heaviest rain and highest QPF amounts will be located near
   Yakutat This evening into Sunday morning.

Details: A low is currently positioned in the western gulf moving
north east. The most recent ASCAT pass at 19 z showed gale force
winds of 40 kts near Kayak Island. These strong gale force winds
will continue for the NE gulf diminishing tonight into tomorrow.
That being said, the strongest winds are yet to come for land areas.
Yakutat is already experiencing peak wind gusts to 40 mph. These
winds will continue for Yakutat into this evening. As the front
continues to push into and over the panhandle, land areas north of
Icy Strait will experience the strongest winds around 3 to 6 Zulu
tonight. These winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 30
to 40 mph. Winds will begin to diminish throughout Sunday with
Skagway holding on to stronger winds for longer.

For precipitation, the forecast remains on track for Yakutat
receiving the most precipitation of 1.5 to 2 inches in 24 hours.
Confidence continues to stay increased with the greatest rates of
precipitation this evening. Rates of 0.1 to 0.15 inches per hour are
expected. Higher elevated areas will see higher rain totals and the
heaviest rain rates with a 60% to 80% chance of greater than 0.2
inches of rain in 1 hour. The rest of the panhandle will see lighter
rain with 24 hour rain totals around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for the
central panhandle and even less for the south. Rain chances also
decrease throughout Sunday, although times of moderate to heavy
rain are still possible until very late Sunday into early Monday.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - Less active weather on the horizon to start the week as a broad
   surface ridge builds over the gulf.
 - A weak upper level low will create times of light precipitation
   for the northern panhandle, into the start of the week.
 - Ridging will continue with no significant weather pattern
   developing.

Details: The low over gulf will move northeast and diminish
Sunday into Monday. After the weekend system leaves the area,
broad ridging will build over the gulf allowing for a chance of
drier weather over the panhandle with areas of light
precipitation. Areas of dry air at 700 mb is what helps to keep
any precipitation very light. Although, an upper level trough and
embedded low will be what helps to still bring that moisture to
the north and central panhandle. The forecast challenge continues
to be, how much precipitation will fall during this time. Rain
chances again increase on Wednesday to the end of the week, but
with no significant impacts expected. Surface ridging continues
into the weekend with no significant or strong weather pattern
developing. Temperatures will remain below typical for this time
of year with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s and
minimum temperatures in the high 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...Flight conditions today continue staying at MVFR
across the majority of the panhandle with CIGs dropping below
3000ft alongside some drops in VIS to 3 to 5 SM. The majority of
the northern panhandle, particularly areas north of Icy Strait
corridor, are expected to stay at MVFR conditions throughout tonight
and into tomorrow morning as another wave moves through the area
following the frontal passage. Areas along the northeast Gulf
coast around Yakutat have been seeing occasional drops to IFR
already, and conditions will remain between MVFR and IFR
throughout the night as cloud ceilings drop between 1500ft to
below 1000ft. The southern panhandle around Wrangell and
Ketchikan are expected to deteriorate to more consistent MVFR
conditions by tonight as the front begins to impact them, and will
clear up by tomorrow morning while the rest of the panhandle will
stay at MVFR conditions.

Increased winds and gusty conditions for the northern panhandle
have started late this morning and are still lasting for Juneau,
Haines, and Gustavus with winds of 15 kts and gusts over 20 kts.
Yakutat has begun to gust as high at 35 kts, and will continue to
gust between 25 and 35 kts into tonight. Skagway has not yet begun
gusting as expected originally, however areas along northern Lynn
Canal have switched to be southerly and have increased winds that
began this afternoon, so Skagway should see an increase in winds
and gusts by 2Z tonight. The northern panhandle and the coast
will continue to see some LLWS throughout the day, with the
highest speed shear being off the coast of Yakutat with an
expected 50-60 kt winds at 2000ft. The rest of the northern
panhandle and Gulf coast will see primarily directional shear as
the front pushes through, with speeds between 30-35 kt between
1500 and 2000ft. This LLWS however will only last into tonight
(around 15Z) and quickly dissipate by the morning for the
panhandle after the front has passed. PIREPs of moderate
turbulence around Juneau have continued into this afternoon, and
the AAWU turbulence forecast shows this potential for moderate
turbulence along the NE Gulf coast and Icy Strait corridor lasting
until 12Z, and until 15Z for the NE Gulf Coast. The southern and
central panhandle areas not located along the outer coast will see
much less impact by wind shear, and are likely to see surface
winds of only 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A cold front sweeping across the Gulf
and into the panhandle through Saturday evening is bringing with
it continued gale force winds for the outer coastal waters North
of Sitka, while small craft conditions (25-30 kt) linger south of
Cape Spencer. Winds will diminish through the day on Sunday,
reaching 10 to 20 kt by Sunday night across the outer coastal
water, and then diminishing to 5-15 kt by Monday for most areas,
though anticipate that areas around the Dixon entrance may remain
moderately more elevated (~20 kt). These conditions are expected
to last through at least the first half of the week.

Inner Channels:
Wind speeds in the inner channels remain around 20 to 30 kts,
through Sunday before slowly diminishing beginning SUnday night.
By late Monday wind speeds are largely 5 - 10 kt barring parts of
Northern Lynn Canal and far southern Clarence Strait which will
see winds of around 15 kt. These lower winds speeds are likely to
last through the first half of the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ324.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
     661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...GFS

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