016
FXAK67 PAJK 070606
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
906 PM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include the 06Z TAF issuance.

The forecast remains largely on track as precipitation has exited
the area. We are now in a slight break period before the next
front moves across the panhandle bringing another round of light
to moderate rain over the area. The main forecast change tonight
was the development of fog near the Wrangell area after skies
cleared. This fog is likely to last into early Friday morning
before overcast skies return ahead of the next front.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A gale force low and associated front in the gulf will track
  north through tonight.

- Another front tomorrow will bring another round of light rain to
  the area with lingering showers lasting into tomorrow night.

- Best chances for light snow Friday night is along the highways
  in the far northern panhandle, but areas near the Icy Strait
  corridor have a slight chance (20%) to see snow if the lower
  atmosphere can cool down enough to support snow down to sea
  level.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...The general 500mb pattern of
a low pressure spinning and rotating in the gulf will continue
through the short term forecast. From a big picture viewpoint,
expecting clouds with occasional rain and rain showers to persist.

850mb temperature trends will remain on the warmer side until Friday
morning. Then, cold air from the backside of the low will start to
swing into SE AK from the west. By Friday night, 850 temps will be
flirting with being cold enough to support snow to sea level, at
around -5 to -8C. The flow looks to be more onshore in the south so
still expecting mainly rain for those south of Frederick Sound. But
to the north, if surface conditions can cool enough Friday night,
some snow mixing with the rain at sea level is possible. That being
said, the latest model simulations are giving low probabilities, at
around 20% chance for snow for those near and north of Icy Strait.
Even lower probabilities to the south. So while snow is possible,
it`s more likely to see just rain through Friday night for most of
SE AK. For areas along the higher elevations of the highways in
northern Lynn Canal, snow is more likely but accumulations don`t
look like much, at around 1-2 inches or less.

At the surface, a weak front associated with the low spinning in the
northern gulf and the cooler air moving east will bring the
reinforcing push of precip and elevated winds. For the most part,
only a slight increase in wind speeds is expected, around 5 to 15
mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. The exception is Skagway where
southerly winds will be a little stronger, with gusts to 30 to 35
mph.

.LONG TERM...
The active pattern continues as a strong low moving up from the
eastern Pacific.

Models have begun to converge on a general track for this low
skirting just east of 140 degrees West before turning into the
panhandle as it weakens. With this feature being occluded at this
point. there will be decent moisture associated with it and
moderate to heavy precipitation is expected for the southern
panhandle, with 48 hr accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches as
of this forecast and more in isolated locations. Of note: these
totals may still have some room to increase across the far
southern panhandle given anticipated low level flow from the S or
SE (directions more favorable for orographic forcing in these
locations). ARIs have increased a step, and are hovering around 2
to 5 year return intervals. While no significant river flooding
is expected, stream rises are likely. Windy conditions are also
expected as this system moves through with the strongest winds
likewise in the southern half of SE AK. A High wind watch has been
issued for parts of the southern panhandle from Saturday evening

The snow forecast for this system continues to pose a challenge.
Current thinking continues to be that while the lower levels
across the panhandle will be cool and there will be a northerly
wind shift ahead of the approaching low, temperatures will not be
cold enough for any appreciable snow accumulations at sea level
this weekend. Should the boundary layer decouple though, the
potential for of minor snow accumulations could exist near sea
level for Haines and Skagway. Across the Icy Strait Corridor,
given heavier precipitation rates, the atmospheric column may be
cooled just enough to allow for some minor accumulations near sea
level from the Icy Strait Corridor northward, including Juneau
itself. Confidence is greater in the chance for far more
significant snow accumulations along the Klondike Highway and at
elevation - potentially also along the Haines Highway. This will
be a very dynamic system to analyze and watch heading into the
weekend. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR ceilings and visibilities remain across
the panhandle as precipitation has moved out of the area allowing
for a break ahead of the next system. The break between systems
has allowed for fog to develop in the Wrangell area. This fog has
greatly reduced visibilities to below 1 SM after it quickly
developed when the overcast cloud layer moved out of the area.
This fog is likely to continue into early Friday morning before an
upper level overcast cloud deck returns ahead of the next front.

As the next system enters the area Friday morning, flying
conditions will decrease to MVFR across the panhandle. The front
will lower ceilings to AoB 2500ft over most of the panhandle.
Visibilities will also decrease to around 2 to 3 SM at times with
the heaviest precipitation. Lowered flight conditions will
persist through Friday afternoon while the front moves over the
panhandle, with scattered showers following in the wake.

&&

.MARINE...The main story in the marine forecast is improving
conditions through Friday night but another low pressure system will
bring more elevated winds from the south on Saturday.

Outside: Gale force winds along the northern coast will move north
and inland tonight, leaving behind decreasing wind speeds and
subsiding wave heights. For Friday afternoon and Friday night, gulf
winds will be out of the south to southwest at around 15 to 20 kt.
Wind speeds will remain at that level until Saturday, when gale
force winds will push northward. Elevated winds centered around the
weekend`s low will last into Sunday.


Inside: For the inner channels, southerly winds will diminish
through tonight to around 5 to 15 kt on average around the area.
Friday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit, allowing
for some north/south oriented channels to see 15 to 20 kt winds
Friday afternoon into Friday night.

For the weekend, the incoming low from the south will spread
elevated winds from south to north through the inner channels. Wind
speeds will increase to upwards of 20 to 25 knots with 30 to 35 kts
in Clarence Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     AKZ328.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GJS

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