831
FXAK67 PAJK 160013
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Multiple Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings are in effect
   across the central Panhandle and the Icy Strait Corridor.

 - Cold temperatures continue, with very cold wind chills near
   White Pass.

 - Gusty outflow winds continue down Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage,
   and near Point Couverden, with occasional gusts in Downtown
   Juneau.

 - Snow and snow showers will continue through tonight. Precip
   slowly diminishes from north to south tomorrow.

 - Drier, colder, and sunnier weather is looking likely later
   this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The particularly complicated weather forecast
continues here in SE AK. A vertically stacked low is spinning in
the eastern gulf. This low has been bringing moderate snow to the
northern half of the panhandle, snow and rain showers to the
southern half of the panhandle, and thundersnow to the coast.

For the snow in the northern half, a stalled frontal boundary near
the Icy Strait Corridor is keeping light to moderate snow in
place. This looks to remain through tonight so the Winter Storm
Warnings for Elfin Cove, Pelican, Hoonah, and Juneau have been
extended into Tuesday morning. Forecasted additional snowfall
amounts tonight are around 6 to 10 inches for Juneau, Hoonah,
Elfin Cove, and Pelican. Some isolated higher amounts are likely
for areas where the topography can cause enhanced snowfall. Based
on reports from storm spotters from Gustavus, the Winter Weather
Advisory will be allowed to play out and expire later today. That
being said, overnight snowfall for Gustavus could be around 2 to 4
inches.

For the southeastern portion of the low, showers have developed
and will last through tonight. The main areas of concern for these
showers are the northern half of Prince of Wales Island and
Southern Baranof Island, and extending far inland as Kake,
Petersburg, and Wrangell. These showers will keep the on/off snow
in place so the Advisories have been extended or they remain
unchanged from inherited forecast. Snow showers by nature can
cause wide differences in snow totals over short distances. So
while the current forecast is calling for snow totals through
tonight around 3 to 6 inches, some isolated amounts of greater or
less than that range are likely.

For the lightning and thundersnow along the coast, reports from
the public and detection from satellites indicate lightning near
Sitka. This lightning potential will stay in the Sitka area
through today while spreading southward to the western Prince of
Wales and the Metlakatla area overnight.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, a low will continue to
remain over the southern portion of the Gulf of Alaska. This low
will linger before ejecting inland Thursday. While this low ejects
inland, outflow conditions are expected to persist for the Inner
Channels with at least gales continuing for places such as Lynn
Canal and Stephens Passage. Although some local areas could
potentially reach storm force winds again such as Point Couverden.
As the low ejects inland, the cold air will work its way south
towards the southern panhandle bringing temperatures down again.
With the dropping temperatures, precipitation is expected to
return to snow before drying out for the end of the week. Places
like Prince of Wales Island and Ketchikan could see up to 2 to 4
inches of snow. Farther north, temperatures will drop as well from
where they have been down to teen and single digits for daytime
highs. Wind chills though are expected to be well below zero with
the ongoing outflow winds especially for the Haines and Skagway
areas. For the central and southern panhandles, temperatures are
expected to drop to the teens and 20s with overnight lows dropping
into the teens and single digits. Areas that are sheltered from
the winds could potentially see colder temperatures such as the
Mendenhall Valley. Headed into the weekend and start of next week,
below normal cold temperatures are expected to continue although
nothing near all time record breaking cold. The next potential for
precipitation looks to be sometime next week when a low returns
to the northern gulf. But there is decent amount of ensemble
uncertainty this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...Three zones of different aviation weather expected
across SE Alaska tonight into tomorrow. A low pressure system over
the eastern GulfAK will move slowly inland roughly around Cross
Sound and start to fill (dissipate) through tomorrow morning. A
frontal boundary extends east from the low center across the
central areas of SEAK (Sitka to Wrangell) with numerous showers of
snow transitioning to rain the farther you go south of the
boundary (where a maritime airmass is holding) and the continental
polar air to the north of the boundary. So, in the northern third
we will see MVFR starting in Yakutat and Skagway we have a much
colder and drier airmass fighting to stay in place with periods of
snow and IFR possible overnight into tomorrow morning, to central
with more extensive periods of IFR in snow and lower CIGS
overnight into tomorrow morning, to south with MVFR to VFR in
showers of light snow or rain. The worst flying weather is
generally expected from Gustavus to Juneau and Haines southward
to near Petersburg and periodically Sitka through 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside water: The arctic boundary is continuing to make marine
forecasts in the inner channels difficult. That boundary is
currently around Sumner Strait over to north of Sitka. To the
north of that boundary strong outflow winds prevail with freezing
spray (some of it heavy in the far north), and periods of snow
reducing visibility to a few miles at times. These conditions are
expected to continue (except for the snow which should be ending
Tuesday) for the north through mid week and possibly into next
weekend at least. Chance of a slight weakening in the outflow
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but it will only reduce winds
around 10 to 15 kt at most before coming back just as strong as
previously seen Tuesday night. South of the boundary south winds
prevail especially tonight with winds up to 25 to 30 kt expected
in some areas before diminishing into Tuesday. Visibility is also
better as most of the precipitation is rain rather than snow. Main
concern for the south is how fast the arctic boundary moves south
over the next several days and switches the southerly winds to a
northerly and bringing colder weather. Expect southern Chatham and
Sumner to switch to the north around Tuesday time period while
the Clarence strait might wait until Wednesday or Thursday before
switching to the N.

Gulf Waters: Area of low pressure 150 miles W of Sitka is slowly
moving NE and weakening as it goes. Expect the low to diminish
away by Tuesday morning and the remnants will either move inland
near Cross Sound or linger just off Cross Sound. In either case
expect winds across the gulf to weaken late tonight into Tuesday.
The Yukon high is expected to strengthen into Wed, So outflow
winds across the NE gulf are expected to strengthen again to gale
force by Wednesday with freezing spray near outflow areas possible
again. Seas remain high tonight with around 20 ft combined seas
being reported (with a S swell to 15 ft. 13 sec period). Gradual
improving trend for seas over the next few days as the S swell
subsides to 10 ft Tuesday and then down to 5 ft by Wednesday.
Combined seas expected to subside to 8 ft by Wednesday except near
outflow areas that could see seas up to 15 ft in some areas due to
the strong winds there.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ320.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ321-322-325.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323-326.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ325.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-021-032.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
     Storm Warning for PKZ013-053-643-644-651-663-664.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-012-021-022-031-641-642-661-662-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032>036-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau