699
FXAK67 PAJK 061858
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
958 AM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025

.UPDATE...Morning update and 18z Aviation Update... The arctic
boundary moving down from the Yukon has pushed south quicker than
initially forecast Saturday. Winds in Lynn Canal have been
consistently out of the north as a low pressure center moved
inland over the central panhandle overnight, preventing any sort
of warm southerly push making it to Haines and Skagway. As of 9am,
the boundary has made its way down to Icy Strait, with Juneau and
Gustavus seeing accumulating snow, and temperatures hovering
right around freezing. With the boundary in place, areas that have
seen a transition to snow will likely stay that way going
forward. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Haines and
Skagway, and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
Yakutat. Stay tuned for further updates on the Winter Storm Watch
still in effect for the Icy Strait Corridor.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Low pressure system in the Gulf brings a front eastward across
   the panhandle through Saturday, bringing moderate to heavy
   snow to the northern panhandle and moderate to heavy rain for
   the southern panhandle.

 - This weekend through next week, models continue falling into
   line behind a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. Higher confidence in totals for the northern
   panhandle, but still some uncertainty remains about timing and
   amounts as cold air pushes southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The groundwork is in place for a significant snow event over the
next few days for the northern panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor.
The bulk of the forecast remains on track, and the main forecast
changes made overnight were to speed up the timing of the
rain/snow changeover in Juneau, and to increase snow ratios across
the northern panhandle as northerly outflow winds look to
successfully push the arctic boundary southward a bit faster than
anticipated.

A low pressure system moving across the central panhandle has
sent a front racing across the panhandle, bringing with it
moderate to heavy rainfall rates and elevated wind speeds. The
strongest winds and greatest rainfall rates look to be across the
northern half of the panhandle, with an inch to an inch and a
half of rainfall expected on Saturday. The system will be
reinforced Saturday night by a developing shortwave, before
stalling through the remainder of the weekend, and continuing to
funnel consistent moisture and strong winds into the panhandle. An
area of deep upper level troughing is shifting over the
panhandle, bringing colder temperatures and increasing outflow
winds through the weekend and into next week. These cold
temperatures steadily move southward through this period, and in
combination with the abundance of available moisture,
precipitation will changeover to snow.

Communities in the far northern panhandle have already firmly made
the changeover to snow, with temperatures in the 20s, and looking
set to continue falling through the forecast period. A winter
storm warning was issued for heavy snow accumulation in Skagway
and Haines through Sunday, with the greatest accumulations and
heaviest rates expected to fall on the higher elevations of the
Klondike and Haines Highways. Consistent moderate to heavy
snowfall is looking to bring accumulations of between 18 and 28
inches to Skagway and 15 to 22 inches to the Haines Borough, with
the higher amounts expected at higher elevations of the highways.
For Skagway at sea level and along the highway, and from Haines
down along the Chilkat Peninsula, wind gusts up to 45 mph are
possible Sunday which may result in some blowing snow following
the fresh snowfall. Yakutat is also seeing snowfall and will see
accumulating advisory level totals of around 3 to 5 inches
through Saturday. Confidence continues to grow in the Icy Strait
Corridor, including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee
Springs, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau  seeing significant
snowfall accumulations starting Saturday night into Sunday. A
watch has been issued for potentially heavy snow from Sunday
morning into Monday night, with accumulations between 11 to 16
inches possible. Given the strong northerly outflow winds which
are already establishing themselves in Lynn Canal, it is possible
that this time table may be pushed up, with a rain snow mix
possible during the daytime hours, and accumulating snow for some
locations along the Icy Strait Corridor as early as Saturday
night. Cold temperatures will continue to drop southward into the
central panhandle as another system advances from the south,
sending another front with similar rain rates into the southern
panhandle. The pattern continues to persist through the long term,
increasing confidence of a long duration snow and rain event. See
the long term for more information on how this pattern will
continue into next week.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday to Tuesday/...
The arctic boundary continues to move southward with the
northerly outflow trying to set up. Expect snow to develop Sunday
from Pelican-Elfin Cove east towards Juneau ( the Icy Strait
Corridor) and continue through much of Monday to Tuesday.
Significant snowfall may fall Sunday to Monday evening, so a watch
has been issued.

Cold air will continue to push south Tuesday, and spread the snow
into the southern panhandle by Tuesday, with another system
arriving and expected to target the southern and possibly central
panhandle. Meanwhile, building outflow winds will lead to drying
and windy conditions across the northern panhandle, which will
spread south to the rest of the SE AK by Wednesday, bringing with
them sharply colder temperatures.

Gusty north winds from the outflow, with gusty winds to 40 to 45
mph perhaps so possibly blowing snow, if snow characteristics are
right, or freezing spray down Lynn Canal.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Sunday morning/...Arctic boundary pushed
south a bit quicker than originally forecast, leading to
conditions deteriorating along the Icy Strait Corridor by mid
morning to IFR due to a transition to primarily snow. Areas that
have seen a transition to snow will likely stay that way, meaning
any precipitation will lead to significant drops in VIS. Otherwise
generally MVFR flight conditions south of the Icy Strait Corridor
with IFR to occasional LIFR flight conditions for PAYA, PAGY and
PAHN where moderate to heavy snow is still ongoing. Down south,
precip is likely to stay all rain through Saturday night, but VIS
and CIGs may still drop down to IFR flight conditions under
heavier rainfall.

Strongest winds will be across the northern panhandle near PAGY
and PAHN, increasing to 15 to 25kts with gusts 30 to 35kts, with
blowing snow likely. Elsewhere, winds becoming 10 to 18kts with
gusts 20 to 25kts. LLWS likely as well with winds 2kft aloft
becoming 30 to 40kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Winds have shifted south southwesterly and
increased to fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) across the gulf
this morning. These stronger winds will last through Saturday. As
the pressure gradient tightens between the low in the Gulf and
the high to the north over Canada Saturday night into Sunday,
northeasterly near gale to gale force (30 to 40 kt) offshore winds
and gap winds will occur along the NE Gulf Coast between Yakutat
Bay and Cape Spencer. The southeastern Gulf will also see an
increase from near gales to gales (28 to 36 kt) as a front moves
through Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night
into Monday. Building seas will reach between 10 and 14 ft. The
seas will continue to see an increase into Sunday to 12 to 16 ft.
Southwesterly swell continues through the weekend.

Inside Waters: The next system has moved into the area bringing
southeasterly winds across the inner channels between a moderate
to fresh breeze (11 to 21 kt), and up to a strong breeze (22 to
27 kt) for northern Lynn, Frederick Sound, Stephens Passage, and
near the ocean entrances. The channels will see a brief increase
as the fronts move across the panhandle this weekend into early
next week. Northerly outflow will strengthen over northern Lynn
Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten, bringing near
gales in the morning becoming gales into the day Sunday. Largely
expecting between 35 and 43 kt winds down Lynn Canal lasting from
Sunday into early next week, with the stronger northerlies moving
southward down to Point Couverden Sunday night into Monday. This
will allow some lower level convergence right around Point
Couverden from the southeasterly winds up Chatham Strait and the
northerly outflow coming down out of Lynn Canal, bringing winds
around Rocky Island to around 25 to 30 kt. Frederick Sound near
Cape Fanshaw and up along Stephens Passage will continue to see
strong breezes to near gales throughout the weekend, alongside
Clarence Strait seeing near gales as the fronts move through and
bring stronger southeasterly winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through this evening for
     AKZ317.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ317-318.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-319.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
     for AKZ320>322-325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-053-651-652-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GFS

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