058
FXAK67 PAJK 221433
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
533 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.

 - High uncertainty with next week`s forecast. One scenario would
   continue the rain-showery pattern while another scenario would
   give dry skies and colder-than-normal temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / A weakening low east of
Kodiak Island persists through Saturday, while southwest to west
winds are widespread across the gulf and to the panhandle.
Onshore flow pattern will continue through the weekend with
upslope precipitation. Categorical or likely PoPs of showers
to the western coastal area, and main coast range, with the
potential for some minor rain shadowing effects on east side of
the slopes. Overall showers will be primarily liquid, although a
mix at high altitudes or more northern section of the Haines
Highway. Accumulations should be be on the light side a few inches
at most.



.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, current forecast
guidance looks similar to yesterday with a low persisting in the
northern Gulf before weakening.

Beyond that, high pressure is expected to build over the Interior
and into the Yukon. Beyond this part of the forecast is where the
uncertainty ramps up.

With this high pressure setting up, colder air would be possible to
slip to the south. Current forecast guidance keeps most of this
colder air in the Yukon and away from the Coast Mountains.

GEFS and EURO ensemble guidance continues to still show great
disagreement, especially with the placement of the high as it
develops. The GEFS is the most aggressive in driving the high
pressure south, which would bring increase outflow and therefore,
sunny and cold weather. The EURO ENS is much more reserved and
keeps the high farther north, which creates a weaker outflow and
would allow for continued cloudy and rain-showery weather.

With the continued disagreement, the forecast is trending towards
the warmer and wetter solution. This will need to be watched
through the weekend for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers continue across the panhandle this
morning and will generally persist through Saturday with
diminishing coverage and less potential for thunderstorms. While
VFR conditions are prevalent with more breaks in the southern
panhandle, CIGs have regularly been dropping AoB 2500 feet in
showers with VIS dropping below 6sm as well. In the far northern
panhandle, surface winds have diminished and precipitation rates
increased resulting in snow mixing down to the surface causing
greater VIS reductions. By mid to late morning a transition back
to primarily rain at sea level is expected with increased winds,
however by Saturday night these are expected to drop off again.
Therefore Saturday night into Sunday morning, any showers making
it to the far northern panhandle would likely result in more snow
mixing with rain, and thus more significant VIS restrictions.
There are no significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A broad swath of southwesterly fresh winds (15 to
20 kts) will persist in the central gulf through the day. 15 to
18 ft wave heights with 15 ft of southwesterly swell at a 15
second period will follow through the central gulf before quickly
diminishing below 15 ft into Saturday. Onshore flow continues to
direct showers into the panhandle with the occasional lightning
strike along the outer coastal mountains. The diminishing trend in
the winds continues through Saturday, alongside wave heights
decreasing to 8 to 12 ft by Saturday night.

Inside Waters: Showers continue moving through the panhandle with
southwesterly onshore flow directing winds up through the
channels. Winds of 12 to 17 kts in N/S facing channels will be
diminishing through the day, becoming light to gentle breezes (4
to 10 kts) by Saturday night. 2 to 4 ft wave heights are expected
for the inner channels, with 10 to 15 ft wave heights for channel
entrances decreasing to below 10 ft by Saturday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

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