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FXAK67 PAJK 081402
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
502 AM AKST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Onshore flow continues for the
panhandle as a low remains in the far northern Alaskan Gulf. This
low will weaken late Friday into Saturday before a new low arrives
in the gulf Sunday. What this means for the panhandle is showery
weather will continue throughout today into Saturday. The northern
panhandle has a chance for times of rain/snow. Any snow amounts will
be small except for a few inches possible for the Haines and
Klondike highways. Along the coastal waters and gulf coast cities,
there is a chance for thunderstorms throughout the day Friday.
This morning we have been monitoring a few locations of lightning
and will continue to monitor throughout the day.

Looking at winds, the gulf and inside waters will continue to see
fresh to strong breezes throughout the day. Otherwise, winds will
diminish this evening into tonight as the low in the gulf weakens.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Middle of Next Week/...

Quick Notes:
-Showers diminish on Saturday, with some drier weather possible,
 especially in the afternoon and evening and across the northern
 half of the panhandle.
-Low tracks E across the Gulf through weekend, bringing into the
 southern and central panhandle Saturday night through Sunday.
-Windy conditions with front, along with rain. Some snow or rain
 snow mix possible for central panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor.
-Dry weather returns for Monday.
-Weak system possible Tuesday.

The long range forecast starts off with a rare reprieve from the
rain for SE AK. Onshore flow will which had been supporting
continued rain showers will be cut off as a low tracking across
the Gulf from the E causes winds to veer more offshore ahead of
it. This will result in diminishing rain showers Saturday morning
and a potentially dry Saturday afternoon/evening period.
Especially for the northern half of the area. By Saturday night,
chances of rain will rapidly increase, as a strong front advances
from the S into the Gulf Coast and the southern panhandle.
Accompanying the front will be strong winds for land based areas
in the south, gales for the outer coastal waters, and northerly
winds for many of the inner channels which will strengthen to
small craft intensity (largely around 25 kt) by Sunday. The N
winds will result in the potential for some snow in the central
panhandle, alongside the more typical rainfall which will fall
across the south. The big question with regards to snow totals
will be just how far N the front is able to advance - a front
which stays further S will have trouble initiating an undercutting
event while a front which moves further N may bring sufficient
moisture to bring minor snow accumulations to some areas -
including the Icy Strait Corridor. For the time being, think that
the front`s distance from its parent low, accompanied by
lackluster moisture in the N half of the area, should prevent any
significant snow accumulation, but the situation will need to be
watched closely, as the potential for the situation to
significantly move towards a more (or less) wintry mix does exist.

Monday will bring with it better news - as the low moves off to
the SE, it will bring the by now decaying front with it. While
some chances of rain may linger for the southern panhandle,
expect the northern panhandle to largely dry out. A weak system
may move in from the NW on Tuesday potentially bringing snow to
parts of the area. Not too far behind it, a stronger system
racing E across the Gulf could sideswipe the southern half of the
panhandle Wednesday into Thursday.

The main changes to the forecast were to lift the Sunday frontal
system a little further North, and to add detail to anticipated
cooler temperatures from competing N outflow winds as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weakening low in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska will keep on-
shore flow and scattered showers across the panhandle through
today with isolated thunderstorm potential along coastal TAF
sites. Anticipating a mix of VFR to MVFR flight conditions to
continue with CIGS AoB 5000ft and intermittent VSBYs down to 4 to
6SM in heaviest showers. Winds should remain around 15ks or less
for much of the panhandle, outside Skagway and Haines, which could
see sustained winds up to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts through
this afternoon.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...NM

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