858
FXAK67 PAJK 040601
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1001 PM AKDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.UPDATE...Refreshing the Aviation Section after the 06z issuance.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 323 PM Tue...

.SHORT TERM...SEAK is continuing to see clouds and rain with
scattered showers continuing across parts of the panhandle today
into Wednesday. As the previous front fully dissipates through
this afternoon, an area of ridging develops over the central gulf.
This ridging has the chance to bring drier weather to much of the
panhandle before the next system approaches Wednesday, though
scattered showers will still be expected through the day for most
locations. The only area that won`t be seeing much of a break is
Yakutat, since the next front is set to reach the northern coast
of the panhandle Wednesday morning. Chances of rain steadily
increase, spreading southeast down the panhandle through the day
as a more organized warm front makes it to the eastern gulf
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precipitation will continue
through the day, though relatively low QPF amounts are expected.
Northern Lynn Canal is still experiencing a tightening NS pressure
gradient, keeping southerly winds breezy with potential for near
gale force gusts into Skagway.

.LONG TERM...The forecast remains largely on track through the
week, though a few changes were made for the system this upcoming
weekend. Heavier precipitation is expected for Yakutat and the
northern coast with help from an atmospheric river reaching the
panhandle Saturday morning. Wind speeds for the inner channels
have also been raised when the front moves over the panhandle.
Speeds in Northern Lynn Canal are expected to reach small craft
advisory status through both systems, though they will still
remain elevated between.

Key messages:
-Lingering shower chances until the next front Wednesday night
-High PoP low QPF system through Thursday followed by more showers
-Gale force front reaching the northern panhandle on Saturday
-Potential for drier weather next week

Details: A deep upper level low over the eastern Bering Sea
continues moving northeast towards SEAK through the week.
Precipitation will continue through the week as a low reaches the
panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday with highest amounts set
to impact Yakutat and northern regions. This will also continue
stronger onshore flow to bring up wind speeds for the inner
channels and out of cross sound. Guidance has increased potential
for a weak atmospheric river to aid the system on Thursday which
will produce areas of rainfall that could be heavy starting in the
northern panhandle and moving southeast. Northern Lynn Canal
winds remain elevated even as the rest of the channels die down.
As for temperatures, highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the
mid 40s near normal. Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible,
mostly in the southern panhandle. Stay tuned for updates through
the week.

Another system is expected to follow closely behind, set to
impact the panhandle this weekend, though uncertainty remains in
the strength and impact. The GFS run has changed to be in more
agreement with the EC and Canadian runs on a northern coastal
impact, though impacts appear to be much stronger. EFI Tables
currently match with the northern coast and QPF has increased up
north with a shift of tails of 1. A moderate AR is predicted to
reach the northern coast of the panhandle for this system as well,
providing heavy rain with gale force gusts for the northern
coast. The upper level low that is associated with this system has
been staying very cold even as it moves over the gulf, increasing
convective potential and the chance for isolated thunderstorms.
There is potential for ridging to develop at the beginning of next
week which could bring more clear/drier weather to a majority of
the panhandle. That being said, there is still a strong enough
signal for the ridge to break down quickly, allowing the troughing
over western Alaska to slide east and give SE AK more rain. Some
EC runs are now showing potential for a shortwave trough to form
in the gulf which could strengthen in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Aviation weather is a mixed bag with mostly VFR
conditions across the south while the north around Icy Strait over
to Sitka has more MVFR and even some isolated LIFR (down to 400
ft ceilings at Elfin Cove and Sitka) due to low clouds and rain
showers in the area. These conditions (VFR south while north is
lower) are expected to continue into early Wednesday before
conditions start to deteriorate more as a new front moves in from
the W Wed afternoon and evening. Expect MVFR conditions or lower
as heavier rainfall moves in with the front starting in the north
first Wed afternoon then spreading to the south by Wed evening.
Gusty surface winds also continue at Skagway and northern Lynn
Canal today and that is not expected to change through Wed. More
areas may join Skagway and Lynn Canal in seeing gusty winds by Wed
evening as the front moves in with the possibility of some
turbulence here and there as well (though they will likely not see
as strong of gusts as skagway is seeing right now).

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Tuesday night into Wednesday, the main concerns are
the 6 to 8 foot wave heights that will build from the west and the
quick moving front that will bring 20 to 30 kt winds that will track
in from the west. Thursday and Friday, general west-to-east flow
will give around 10 to 20 kt winds in the eastern Gulf. A potential
gale force low will move through the western Gulf late Friday into
the weekend. The front side of the low looks to bring gale, or at
least near gale force, to the coastal waters. The winds will start
to pick up late Friday night and last through Saturday. 20 to 30 kt
winds could linger into Sunday for the southern outer coast as the
low wraps up and moves northward.

Inner Channels: Through Wednesday night, a tightening pressure
gradient and quick moving front will bring increased southerly winds
to the inner channels. Wind speeds are starting off on the calmer
side for most of the area with the exception of Lynn Canal where
wind speeds have been around 20 knots most of the day.
Marine wind speeds around SE AK will increase to 10 to 20 knots by
Wednesday afternoon. Lynn Canal will see winds increase more, to 25
kts, Wednesday night with near 25 kts lasting through Thursday.

Late Friday into the weekend is when the inner channels will have
increased winds again. The previously mentioned low looks to swing a
front through the area that will increase wind speeds in the inner
channels to around 15 to 25 kts with the higher wind speeds in Lynn
Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...EAL  UPDATE by Bezenek
MARINE...GJS

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