864
FXAK67 PAJK 052358
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...

Key Messages:
-The near, or colder-than, normal temps continue with low temps
 tonight in the teens to 20s and Thursday`s highs will be near the
 low 30s.
-Increasing high clouds tonight, but still widespread dry
 conditions continue through tonight with a brief pattern change
 moving in on Thursday.
-Land winds will be calm for most areas. Strongest marine winds
 in Lynn Canal but speeds will be on a decreasing trend late
 Thursday.

Details: Persistence forecasting continues for the short term
forecast as outflow winds continue to weaken under dry conditions.

Main forecast challenge through the short term remains diurnal
temperatures and winds. Mid/upper level ridge axis shifts over
the panhandle through the rest of today. For minimum temperatures
tonight, main forecast challenge will be wind speeds, the
timing/height of increasing cloud cover from an approaching
system, and how insulated surface temperatures will remain.
Fortunately, there shouldn`t be any cold weather product concerns.

A brief pattern change is ongoing due to a mid/upper level shortwave
trough over southcentral AK/Prince William Sound, with an
attendant surface low moving down into the NE Gulf coast. Given
the speed and strength of the system with combination of very dry
lower levels, not anticipating much, if any, precipitation over
the panhandle through most of Thursday. As the low moves closer
to the SEAK coast, anticipating winds to be around 10 to 20 knots
for most marine zones.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday night/...High pressure over
western Canada will dominate the long range forecast period,
promoting an offshore regime with periods of small craft winds
over the northern inner channels and windy conditions at times
over the far northern inner channels and downtown Juneau. Early
on, a surface ridge of high pressure will trap a weak inverted
trough along the outer coast and this could result in some
precipitation in the form of snow for the central and southern
outer coast. This is a low confidence, low probability forecast.
In the second half of the weekend, the surface ridge will be
displaced by an approaching low. This will result in organized
southeasterly winds. The strong high pressure over western Canada
will remain in place, however, thus minimizing the change of any
impactful precipitation. Temperatures are trending very slightly
warmer, but are still decidedly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flight conditions continue through the panhandle
with high clouds and gusts up to 30kts in Skagway and Haines. A
mid/upper level shortwave trough will push down the coast and
bring higher clouds. Dry conditions will prevail near the
surface, resulting in little to no precipitation. Our biggest
concern is the LLWS for Haines and Juneau: directional wind shear
for Haines and speed wind shear for Juneau starting at 1000 ft.
Lower cloud levels will push over Klawock tonight and there is
potential for some broken fog in Petersburg into the morning.


&&

.MARINE...Main concerns for marine zones centers around Lynn
Canal where winds will be around 20 to 25 knots through Thursday.
All other marine areas will have speeds around 15 to 20 knots or
lower.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS/NM
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...LC/ZK
MARINE...GJS

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