052
FXAK67 PAJK 271143
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers continuing today with partial clearing across the north
  this afternoon and into Tuesday.

- Another low and front will approach from the south and spread
  steadier rain into the southern panhandle tonight into Tuesday,
  then into the north Tuesday night.

- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy
  winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
Light showers continuing this morning as moisture and multiple
short waves pivot around the eastern flank of broad upper-level
troughing over the Gulf. A surface low out in the southern Gulf
will lift northeast towards Haida Gwaii and will push into the
southern panhandle on Tuesday, then weakening as it lifts into the
northern panhandle Tuesday night. This low and attendant front
will spread steadier rain into the southern panhandle by Monday
night into Tuesday. Ridging north of the low/front across the
north will help bring partial clearing, along with warmer and
drier weather into Tuesday. The rain will then expand towards the
north Tuesday night as the front/low shift northward, weakening
in the process. Rain amounts through Tuesday night across the
north will be lighter (generally less than 0.10") as the
low/front and therefore forcing weaken. Higher totals tonight
through Tuesday night along and south of Frederick Sound, from
around to 0.25" near Petersburg and Wrangell to upwards of around
an 1.00" near Ketchikan.

Seasonable temps today with highs in the 60s. While locations
across the southern panhandle will be a couple of degrees cooler
Tuesday, clearing across the northern panhandle will allow for
afternoon temps to climb into the mid 60s to possibly low 70s.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...
A persistent, positively tilted upper-level low will
linger over the region through the end of the week and into the
weekend. As an upper-level ridge over the Alaska Peninsula tracks
eastward, this trough will evolve into a closed-off low before
weakening and moving out of the region by Sunday. Simultaneously,
a surface low originating from Prince William Sound will stall
just west of Haida Gwaii, gradually weakening as its upper-level
support wanes. This pattern will result in bands of rain pushing
northward, primarily impacting the southern Panhandle and Coast
Range, though precipitation totals are expected to remain
seasonably normal, with the highest QPF amounts on Wednesday and
possibly Friday. While the southern Panhandle remains
predominantly wet and showery under persistent SE`rly flow, the
North Gulf Coast is expected to see a break in heavier
rain showers towards the end of the week. As the surface low
dissipates southward over the weekend and a ridge attempts to
build, northerly winds and warming 850mb temperatures over the
northern and inland parts of the panhandle may lead to down
sloping and warmer surface temperatures in the mid 70s near
Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, and Hyder. Model guidance is in general
agreement regarding the evolution of the low, though there is
some uncertainty in resolving local wind convergence through Dixon
Entrance into southern Clarence Strait. While winds will likely
see their most significant push northward on Wednesday, current
thinking is that wind speeds will remain around 20kts or less,
gradually diminishing afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions this morning continue to be generally
around MVFR to VFR with ceilings being the main issue. There have
been some isolated areas where ceilings or visibilities have
dropped down to IFR and even some isolated pockets of LIFR. These
conditions are expected to improve through the morning as we see
some clearing and or increasing ceilings during the day. There is
moderate confidence in when we will see improving conditions.
Heading into this evening, VFR conditions are expected to become
more persistent for most locations especially across the northern
panhandle where there is high confidence in the TAFs. Farther
south, confidence is lower with ceilings being the main concern as
the next low moves closer to the southern panhandle. There is a
chance ceilings could drop to MVFR as this low moves closer to the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Across the coastal and Gulf
waters, we continue to see gentle to moderate breezes. Closer to
the Dixon Entrance, moderate to fresh breezes are more likely,
especially as the low moving closer to the southern panhandle
drives up the winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will
remain possible. Wave heights today are expected to be around 4-7
ft for the Gulf waters with a S-SE swell. Going into tomorrow, the
low moves inland and we see the winds turn to more of the NW with
speeds along the coast increasing to moderate to fresh breezes
along the coast tomorrow during the day. Seas will continue to be
around 4-7 ft with a S-SE swell for tomorrow.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels this
morning generally remain light although a few locations are
reporting moderate breezes such as Eldred Rock and Ship Island in
Clarence Strait. The strongest winds are expected to be in
Clarence Strait today before becoming more light this evening.
Winds will shift to the north during the evening to overnight
hours tonight in response to the low approaching the southern
panhandle. We could see some places getting up to moderate breezes
in response to the low approaching the region going into tomorrow
but that will need to be monitored. Wave heights are expected to
be around 1-3 ft for most of the Inner Channels with the exception
of Clarence Strait which could be closer to 4-6 ft as well as
increased seas near ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...SF

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