974
FXAK67 PAJK 082354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key messages:
- Rain continues through the weekend as a series of systems move
  over the panhandle.
- Heaviest precipitation will occur Saturday evening for areas
  Frederick Sound and south.
- Winds increase for coastal areas and inner channels to sustained
  fresh to strong breezes of 15 to 25 kts.

Details: Rain will continue this afternoon before the next front
reaches the panhandle late tonight into early Saturday morning. At
that time, moderate to heavy rain will spread across the central to
southern panhandle. The main areas that will see the heaviest rain
will be from Frederick Sound and south. The heaviest precipitation
will fall Saturday evening with a 60% chance of rain rates greater
than 0.1 inches per hour and 70% chance of greater than 0.5 inches
in 6 hours. Throughout Saturday, 24 hour precipitation totals are
expected to be from 1 to 2 inches. Rain totals for the whole weekend
remain around 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated areas receiving up to 4
inches of rain.

Behind the initial front today, winds along the inner channels and
coast will slightly decrease this afternoon and evening. An
exception to this will be winds along the northern inner
channels, specifically Lynn Canal, that stay elevated with winds
of 20 to 25 kts. The strong pressure gradient keeping winds strong
in Lynn Canal will decrease late tonight into tomorrow morning.
In turn, winds will decrease before the next front reaches the
area. Once again, winds increase Saturday morning to sustained
strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts along the gulf coast and inner
channels. These sustained winds remain elevated through Saturday
before diminishing through Sunday.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/ Key messages:
- Moderate to heavy rain diminishing Sunday into Monday.
- Winds on a downward swing over the same timeframe.
- Quick moving weak system to start the week, then a ridge builds in
  the gulf through midweek.

Details: Continuing from the short term, rain totals for the central
and southern areas are still expected to be 1 to 3 inches. Highest
totals will be around S Baranof island with a 60% to 70% chance of
greater than 2 inches of rain in 24 hours. Higher elevations will
see higher rain totals up to around 4 inches through the weekend.
Rain intensity will then fall off later Sunday and into Monday,
with another shortwave trough moving along the north gulf coast
giving a slight bump to precipitation once more around midday.

Southeast winds up to strong breezes of 23 to 27 kts on Saturday
will continue into Sunday before diminishing as the low pushes
inland along the NE gulf coast.

Once that early week system moves through, a surface ridge will
begin to build northward into the gulf coupled with an upper level
ridge, bringing drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday across the
panhandle, along with less cloud cover and warmer daytime highs up
to around 70. Model spread begins to increase rapidly by late next
week, but as of this discussion, Wednesday night into Thursday looks
like the timeframe to expect the next system to move into the gulf.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 00z Sunday/..

Main aviation concern will be decreased flight conditions through
Friday into Saturday as multiple systems push into the area, with
MVFR or worse flight conditions, elevated winds, and LLWS
expected.

Predominate MVFR to low-end VFR flight conditions across the
panhandle with CIGS generally AoB 4000ft. Lone outsiders are the
far northern TAF sites of Haines and Skagway with best flying
conditions at the moment with CIGS 5k to 10k ft. High confidence
in MVFR down to IFR flight conditions to continue through the
evening with intermittent IFR to LIFR visbys within heavier
showers. By Saturday morning, anticipating widespread MVFR or
worse conditions to continue panhandle-wide with CIGS AoB 3000ft
ahead of the next approaching system by Saturday afternoon.

Sustained winds should remain around 10 to 15kts through tonight,
with isolated gusts up to 25kts. Strongest winds expected near
Skagway this afternoon with sustained winds up to 20kts and
isolated gusts up to 30kts. Brief lull in LLWS expected before a
stronger front pushes inland by 12 to 18z Saturday morning, with
strongest LLWS expected along and south of a line from Sitka
eastward to Petersburg down towards Metlakatla.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Southeasterly fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts
once again reach the Southeast gulf and gulf coast as a front
moves onshore late tonight into early Saturday. Behind the front,
southwesterly strong breezes continue Saturday afternoon into
Sunday across the far southern Gulf. This will bring elevated
southwesterly seas of 11 to 13 ft at 9 to 11 seconds for most of
the coast. The strongest of these winds will begin to decrease
throughout the day Sunday as the front and low pressure system
move into the panhandle and dissipate. As ridging then develops,
winds along the gulf are expected to remain below 20 kts for a
majority of the week.

Inside: Into tonight, Lynn Canal will continue to see the highest
wind speeds up to 25 kts as a strong pressure gradient remains in
place. Winds have begun to decrease this afternoon behind the
initial front, though they are expected to increase again quickly as
another strong system moves over the area tomorrow morning.
Throughout Saturday, the highest wind speeds will be in N/S facing
channels, seeing fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts through the
day. These stronger winds will hold on into the start of Sunday
before beginning to diminish Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall will continue across the area as multiple systems move
into the panhandle Friday through the weekend. The strongest of
these systems is expected to push into the panhandle by Saturday
afternoon, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to the area.
Heaviest rainfall expected across the central and southern
panhandle with forecast rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches
total for the weekend panhandle wide. Locally higher amounts up to
4 inches are possible at higher elevations and westward facing
terrain. Rises of rivers and streams are expected across the
central and southern panhandle, but no major flooding is expected
at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
HYDROLOGY...NM

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