113
FXAK67 PAJK 091342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
442 AM AKST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Saturday night/

Key Points:
-General drying trend through Saturday afternoon
-Gale force front approaches Gulf coast by Sunday morning, strongest
winds expected over the Gulf and along the Gulf Coast.
-Low to medium confidence of strong winds pushing inland for
interior southern and central panhandle.

Discussion: No significant changes to the forecast for Saturday as a
decaying low in the northern Gulf of Alaska will gradually dissipate
through the day. Precipitation chances will decrease through the
late afternoon for much of the area, with highest precipitation
potentially remaining around the north Gulf coast. Anticipating
southerly inner channel winds to persist through this evening before
a flip to northerly overnight as a strong low and accompanying
gale force front move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska Saturday
night through Sunday. Main concerns with the approaching front
will be winds up to Severe Gale over the Gulf and along the Gulf
Coast with strong winds possible over the far southern panhandle
up to 40mph. Overall conditions improve by early week as the
aforementioned front and associated parent low shift SE and
inland.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through late next week/...
Quick Notes:
-Low tracks E across the Gulf through weekend, bringing rain and
 wind into the southern and central panhandle Saturday night
 through Sunday.
-Windy conditions with front, along with rain. Some snow or rain
 snow mix possible for central panhandle, but no significant
 accumulation.
-Dry weather returns for Monday.
-Weak system possible Tuesday or Wednesday.
-Strong System Potentially for next weekend

The long range forecast starts off with chances of rain on the
rise as a strong front advances from the S into the Gulf Coast
and the southern panhandle. Saturday night into Sunday Accompanying
the front will be strong winds for land based areas in the south,
gales for the outer coastal waters, and northerly winds for many
of the inner channels which will strengthen to small craft
intensity (largely around 25 kt) by Sunday. The N winds in many of
the inner channels will result in cooler than model progged
temperatures, and the potential for some snow to mix in across the
central panhandle, alongside the more typical rainfall which will
fall across the south. The front`s distance from its parent low,
accompanied by lackluster moisture in the N half of the area,
should prevent any significant snow accumulation, but the
situation will need to be watched closely, as the potential for
the situation to move towards a more (or less) wintry mix does
exist.

Monday will bring with it better news - as the low moves off to
the SE, it will bring the by now decaying front with it. While
some chances of rain may linger for the southern panhandle,
expect the northern panhandle to largely dry out. A weak system
may move in from the NW on Tuesday potentially bringing snow to
parts of the area. Not too far behind it, a stronger system
racing E across the Gulf could sideswipe the southern half of the
panhandle Wednesday into Thursday.

The main changes to the forecast were to lift the Sunday frontal
system a little further North, and to add detail to anticipated
cooler temperatures from competing N outflow winds as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions continue this morning with showers
still moving onshore. Coverage in these showers is expected to
continue to decrease which will allow for improving conditions
through the morning along with increased coverage of VFR for the
panhandle. These clearing conditions will come to an end though
this evening as the next system approaches. This next system will
impact the latter half of the TAF period with increasing winds,
decreasing CIGs and VIS as well as increased potential for LLWS
across the panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...

For the outer waters, winds will steadily increase over the
course of Saturday and Saturday night with an easterly front
moving in. Along the front, east to southeasterly gales will move
into the nearshore waters with wave heights up to 22 to 26 ft offshore
of southern Baranof Island by Sunday morning.

In the inner channels, winds in Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait,
Fredrick Sound, and around Peril Strait will be impacted by fresh
breezes from the east. Additionally, there is the possibility of
some strong breezes as the front moves over the panhandle. Expect
these easterlies to be short lives and outflow northerly winds to
take over by late Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032>036-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC/NM

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