485
FXAK67 PAJK 311131
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 AM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Low pressure over the southern gulf will bring continued rain
 chances to the central and southern panhandle today, before
 gradually decreasing Saturday.

-High temperatures across inland areas of the northern panhandle
 could reach the mid-upper 70s on Saturday if clouds decrease as
 expected.

-A warmer and drier trend will expand to much of the region by
 late in the weekend as a ridge over the gulf pushes eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday Night/...Clouds are overspreading
much of the region early this morning as low pressure remains
nearly stationary off Haida Gwaii. A few areas of fog have been
observed in and near the inner channels and along the northern
Gulf Coast, especially near Yakutat, but this should mainly
dissipate over the next few hours. The frontal system associated
with the aforementioned low pressure area has reached the southern
panhandle. While the low is expected to slowly fill and weaken as
it eases slightly east-northeast, moist low level flow combined
with ample lift will bring showers northward to at least the
Juneau area by afternoon. The heaviest and most persistent showers
are expected to remain across the southern panhandle through this
evening.

A continued increase in cloud cover should help keep temperatures
a little cooler this afternoon for the central and northern
panhandle, although little if any precipitation is expected to
reach northern Lynn Canal and points north until evening.

By tonight, high pressure building in from the west will slowly
bring drier air into the area, from north to south. That said, we
still expect at least a chance of occasional showers for much of
the region from Glacier Bay southward through the night. The
highest chances and heaviest amounts will remain south of
Wrangell.

Conditions should generally improve a bit more by Saturday,
particularly for the northern and central panhandle, although a
few showers cannot be ruled out. South of Sumner Strait,
precipitation chances will remain elevated through the day. In
these areas, as the mid level flow attempts to turn briefly
easterly, moisture may stream in from adjacent British Columbia
and result in an increase in showers, particularly for the more
terrain-favored locales. At this time, we are not expecting any
thunderstorms. As we reach Saturday night, precipitation should
finally taper region-wide as the ridge in the Gulf advances
farther eastward.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday Through Mid Week/...Beginning the latter
half of the weekend will be a return to high pressure for much of
the eastern gulf, with a trough exiting to the south of Haida
Gwaii. For winds, northwesterlies along the western coast south of
Cape Edgecumbe are expected to increase to at least 20 knots as
the trough drops south and the high pressure builds. Aloft, a
weak, dirty ridge with some energy working eastward along the
northern gulf will keep a general cloudiness with a nonzero
possibility of rain, particularly for the northeast gulf coast and
Icy Strait over to Juneau. Furthermore, timing regarding these
showers certainly display a high degree of uncertainty. Chances
for right now are around 20% particularly around Sunday night and
through Monday, with highest chances along west facing mountains.

Transitioning into the midweek, a stronger system moves into the
Anchorage area, with a portion of the storm spilling into the
Yakutat Area. Not expecting any impactful rainfall totals at this
time, with a majority of the moisture directed towards Prince
William Sound and westward.

&&

.AVIATION...Flying conditions this morning vary from VFR down to
LIFR. Most locations this morning continue to report VFR flying
conditions while fog has developed around PAYA. For the southern
panhandle, a front continues to slowly work across the area
bringing rain. Some locations have been seeing visibilities and
ceilings dropping down to LIFR while a few other places have seen
MVFR conditions. With the low eventually diving south, VFR
conditions are expected again for the northern panhandle while
the southern panhandle could see MVFR conditions returning. One
thing that will need to be watched for this evening will be any
fog redevelopment tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this
morning continue to be fairly light with the strongest winds of 10-
15kt being reported from Gulf buoys. Once the low in the Pacific
starts to move, winds will start to shift from somewhat offshore to
more of a W-NW flow as high pressure builds in. Model guidance is
struggling with when this exactly happens but points towards this
weekend. As high pressure builds in, the NW winds are expected to
increase closer to fresh to strong breezes for the weekend. Wave
heights will start out around 4-7 ft but should trend down for the
start of the weekend before increasing again with the increased wind
speeds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breezes continue this
morning for the Inner Channels. These winds are expected to increase
somewhat as we see the influence of the low off to the SE continue
to play into conditions across the area. Winds today should remain
fairly similar to what has been going on. Model guidance continues
to struggle with trying to move this low out of the area but
eventually does by this weekend. With the low moving out of the
area, high pressure is expected to build in bringing more enhanced
sea breezes and NW flow for those passageways favored by NW winds.
Wave heights during this time should remain below 3ft with the
exception of ocean entrances where wave heights will be more
elevated.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...SF

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