546
FXAK67 PAJK 040536
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
936 PM AKDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.UPDATE...Updated the aviation section to include the 06z TAF
issuance.

For the short term forecast, low pressure spinning in the gulf
just off the coast SW of the Sitka area will keep showers dotting
the landscape of SE AK. The stronger cells that developed earlier
have weakened and lightning has not been detected in awhile.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Cooler air aloft being drawn in to an approaching
low embedded within the larger upper level circulation still
anchored over the eastern gulf this Sunday has brought convective
showers over a majority of the panhandle, behind an initial
stratiform rain band that moved through the area Sunday morning.
As of Sunday afternoon some sites have reported hourly rainfall
amounts as high as 0.30 inches in the far southern panhandle.
These moderate to isolated heavy showers will continue, though
with decreasing intensity by Sunday night into Monday as this
feature weakens and pushes inland. Heavier showers in the
afternoon and early evening will generally be limited to the
central and southern panhandle, with lighter rainfall expected
from Icy Strait northward for the same timeframe. Gusty erratic
winds are possible in the vicinity of heavier showers with brief
gusts reaching upwards of 25 mph. Aside from these heavier
showers, strongest winds will be associated with any developing
sea breezes such as observed at Skagway with gusts up to 25 kts
due to thermal troughing developing over the interior.

For Monday, light showers will likely linger over the central
panhandle, though diminish through Monday night. The northern
panhandle has increased rain chances for Monday night due to
residual moisture in the lower levels and a low over northern
British Columbia, though rainfall amounts are expected to be light.
For the far southern panhandle, a developing low approaching Haida
Gwaii is expected to pass to the south of the panhandle, however a
warm front extending from it will swing a band of rain northwards
bringing light to potentially moderate rain Monday night into
Tuesday. For more information on this and what to expect by midweek,
see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM... / Tuesday to Saturday / The remains of the frontal
band moving through the panhandle Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday is
looking dry and that continues to into Thursday. The dry weather
is due to a ridge moving across the eastern gulf and to the
panhandle. Along with this ridge, 850 mb temperatures are going to
increase, in turn, increasing temperatures at the surface. Above
normal temperatures are expected mid to late week. The NBM is
showing maximum temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 for many
areas across the panhandle.

Next weekend, a strong low over the western gulf and eastern
Bering Sea, moves towards the western Gulf. A front from that low
swings across the North Pacific and then into Western gulf and
toward the panhandle. With that low, there are starting to be
indications of a plume of moisture that is increasing IVT values
across the southern gulf. These higher IVT values reaching > 250
to 500 kg/m*s shows the chance of AR development. The plumes
strength is a touch weaker than it was showing on Saturday, and
positioning shifted slightly but still is aimed towards the
southern half of the panhandle. If this occurs, we can see
moderate to heavy rain over parts of the panhandle. Currently this
increase in moisture looks to be focused on northern areas. We
will continue to monitor the strong low and the associated
potential for heavy precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...With the exception of the isolated showers that give
brief lowered flying conditions down to MVFR, this evening has
been mostly VFR around SE AK with light winds.

Going into the overnight, the area will for the most part, stay
in a steady state pattern with continued VFR until around 10z,
where lowered MVFR clouds will develop. These lowered conditions
will last until around 16z, then back to VFR. And with the
lingering low in the gulf, isolated showers around the area will
through tomorrow, so brief lowered conditions would happen if
those showers happen to find you.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Winds are on a diminishing trend to predominantly
10 kt or less as the low weakens further Sunday evening. Seas west
of Haida Gwaii will pick up later Sunday night as a low
approaches the southern Gulf. Seas of 4 to 5 ft are expected
today into tonight. SW to W swell with wave period of 13 to 15
seconds expected.

Inside Waters: Most areas will remain light to up to 10 kt,
however there will be some winds up to 15 kts in the vicinity of
heavier showers, particularly in the southern and central
panhandle through the early evening Sunday. E winds coming out of
Cross Sound will become light later as the low continues
weakening. Winds in Clarence Strait are expected to become light
late tonight as the short wave effectively disintegrates as it
tries to push inland. Winds in this area will then pick up once
more as another front approaches from the south on Monday to
upwards of 15 kts. Northern Lynn Canal will see winds increase
upwards of 15 kts Sunday night as the initial short wave from this
morning continues lifting northward into the Yukon, reinforcing a
thermal trough in the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau