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FXAK67 PAJK 241749 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
949 AM AKDT Sat May 24 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A gale force low in the eastern gulf will continue to increase
   winds Saturday morning.
 - Strongest winds located over the southern panhandle and
   southern marine areas.
 - Times of moderate to heavy rain throughout Saturday for the
   southern panhandle.

Details: A front is currently moving over the panhandle increasing
winds and bringing moderate to heavy precipitation. Winds have begun
to increase for the southern panhandle near Clarence Strait as of
this morning. These southerly winds will continue to increase this
morning to gale force of 35 kts with gusts up to 40 to 45 kts. After
the initial front moves past, winds will begin to decrease tonight
still remaining around 15 to 25 kts for the coast and southern
marine areas.

Along with strong winds, moderate to heavy precipitation will occur
through this morning. Most of this precipitation will be focused
on the southern panhandle. Hydaburg has already seen consistent
hours with rain rates above 0.1 inch per hour. These rain rates
are expected to continue for POW and Ketchikan areas through this
morning before decreasing. The central and northern panhandle will
not see as much rain, with mainly light precipitation. The
existing low will send the next wave of moisture toward the
panhandle Saturday night into Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...Looking towards the weekend and next week, the rainy
weather looks to stick around for several days.

Key points:
-Moderate to heavy rain expected in the panhandle beginning
 Saturday. Lighter rain Monday, heavy rain returns Tuesday and
 Wednesday.
-Stronger-than-normal southerly winds will move into the southern
 panhandle.

Details:
The southern portions of Alaska will continue to remain rather
unsettled given the time of year with periods of rainfall likely
each day from the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the southeast
Panhandle region. A weakening low pressure system this weekend
will give way to an incoming low from the Bering that will set up
over the central Gulf through the middle of next week, with moist
onshore flow.

Rainfall greatest coverage and intensity is expected from Icy
Strait to the southern Panhandle. A heavy rain area remains
depicted in the WPC medium range hazards graphic for the 25th to
the 28th, given how late in the season this is, and the duration
of the rainfall expected. The highest rainfall is likely to be
south of the Sitka area based on the latest model guidance.

The EFI tables give the greatest amounts of rain from Monday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Not only are the models showing
high confidence of elevated amounts of rain, there is a Shift of
Tails of near 1 to 2 - which tells us that this is an extreme
event for this time of year. For Ketchikan, there is high
confidence (>60%) chance of getting at least 2 inches of rain
over 24 hours beginning Monday afternoon. And it`s a similar story
for areas around Prince of Wales Island and for Metlakatla.

For wind speeds, the EFI is highlighting stronger-than-normal
southerly wind speeds Saturday through mid-week. Marine wind
speeds in the southern inner channels could get upwards of 20 to
35 knots with the strongest speeds found in southern Clarence
Strait and in the outside waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Variable MVFR to VFR flight conditions this morning
across the panhandle with predominate VFR flight conditions along
and north of Frederick Sound with CIGS AoA 5000ft under a SCT to
BKN Deck. Northernmost regions should see even higher CIGs until
the back end of the front reaches the area. Sustained winds should
remain near 15kts or less with an isolated gust up to 25kts
possible for majority of the panhandle through the afternoon.

South of Frederick Sound, a slow moving front is pushing into the
southern panhandle, with elevated sustained winds up to 20kts and
gusts up to 30kts with MVFR flight category CIGS around 2000 to
3000ft reported at Ketchikan and Klawock. Flight conditions will
continue to gradually deteriorate through Saturday for majority of
SEAK TAF sites, outside of Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway, dropping
into MVFR to low-end VFR flight conditions this afternoon with
CIGS AoB 4000ft and reduced visibilities 2 to 4SM within heavier
showers. Precipitation has already spread northward to most sites,
though northernmost areas won`t feel the effects until around
10Z. Strongest winds and worst flight conditions will be across
the southern panhandle TAF sites with sustained winds up to 25kts
and frequent gust up to 35kts, gradually decreasing after 03z to
06z this evening. Potential for CIGs to start rising around 15Z
tomorrow, though precipitation will continue through the period.

Main aviation concern continues to be southeasterly LLWS for the
southern panhandle TAF sites through Saturday afternoon.
Anticipating southeasterly LLWS will be strongest near Ketchikan
and Klawock, approximately 30kts around 2000ft, increasing in
strength to near 45kts through 00z Saturday as a reinforcing front
pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: The gale front has begun to increase winds and waves for
the gulf Saturday morning. Southerly winds across the southern
gulf have started to, and will continue to increase to 25 to 35
kts. There is an 80% chance that wind gusts will reach strong gale
force of 40 to 45 kts for these southern areas. At this time on
Saturday, wave heights will build to 14 ft west of POW and over N
Dixon Entrance. Expect winds to diminish down to a fresh to strong
breeze Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday. Looking
towards next week, there is early indications of a stronger system
moving into the panhandle. At this time, expect at least gale
force winds in Dixon entrance and Clarence Strait. These winds up
to 30 knots look to extend as far north as Yakutat. Certainly an
unseasonably strong system.

Inside: A strong front has made its way to the panhandle as of
this morning increasing southern channels to near gale and gale
force winds. Southern Clarence Strait will continue to increase
reaching gale force winds of 35 kts with winds gusts of 40 to 45
kts possible. Expect strong breezes to extend as far north as
Frederick Sound, mainly from an SE to ESE direction. Not looking
to have these stronger winds travel up into northern Chatham
Strait or Stephens Passage, although there is approximately a 30%
chance of exceeding fresh breeze in Peril Strait.

In the northern half of the panhandle, expect winds to flip out of
the north as the stronger front moves up from the south. Moderate
breezes in Lynn Canal from the northerly winds are expected, with
fresh breezes near Point Couverden out of the NE, due to a tip
jet.

A marine weather statement is still in affect focused on the
stronger winds and waves throughout today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Moderate to heavy rain will continue for the southern
panhandle this morning with rain rates of 0.1 to 0.15 inches per
hour. Less QPF is expected for Sunday and Monday with much
lighter rain rates before the next system moves in. Areas on the
windward side of mountains could get a little more. A stronger
system will be moving in Monday night into Tuesday with a wet
moisture plume and a weak to moderate atmospheric river for the
southern half of the panhandle. So far the EC is showing the
atmospheric river to be moving more directly into the panhandle
Tuesday, while the GFS is having it move more to the southeast and
with a bit more spread in the strength of the AR event. The EC
showing this to be a moderate AR for the southern panhandle is
also shown in the EFI QPF table, with a shift of tails of 2 and
confidence above the 90th percentile for a significant portion of
the panhandle. For now it`s something we`re watching as we get
closer and have more agreement on the IVT values and
timing/placement of the AR. We are not seeing any flooding
concerns for now for this event.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033-035-641>644-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM/ZTK
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...Contino

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