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FXAK67 PAJK 111811
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
911 AM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...A low remains in the Northeastern Gulf this morning
bringing rain to most of the panhandle and snow to the highways.
The low is expected to remain over the area while is continues to
weaken and fill for the middle part of the week. With the showers,
some showers could be gusty as well as the very isolated potential
for an occasional lightning strike as these showers hit the
terrain after moving off the water. As the low continues to
weaken, winds across the area are expected to diminish as well so
conditions are expected to improve as we head into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions quickly
develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system moves to the south of
the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow and northerly winds
across the inner channels as a high develops over the Yukon at
around 1010mb. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and across Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near
gales of 20 to 30 kts are the most likely. This is mainly seen in
similarities in model pressure gradients, showing around a 3 mb
difference between Skagway and Juneau late Wednesday.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. Specifically there is
around a 40 to 60% chance of less than 30 degree temperatures over
the southern panhandle Thursday into Friday. The central and
northern panhandle both have a medium to high likelihood of low
temperatures less than 25 degrees. These temperatures are nothing
atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest most
places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The colder the
temperatures are leading up to the weekend system, the more likely
it is for precipitation to fall as snow into the Icy Strait
Corridor.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/...Generally, ceilings &
visibilities in the MVFR/VFR flight category range & diminishing
shower activity are anticipated through the TAF period. There will
be breezy conditions north of the Icy Strait Corridor as the
pressure gradient will remain relatively tighter over that area.
LLWS magnitudes of up to 30 - 35 kt out of an average southerly
direction centered up at around 2 kft remain for the day on
Tuesday. Southern panhandle areas that will have the most breaks
in the clouds & the lightest winds due to having a more relaxed
pressure gradient may have some areas of fog, lowering conditions
to around the IFR/LIFR category Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: The remnants of a gale force low continue to spin
near Yakutat this morning. This low continues to weaken as it
remains in the NE Gulf coast. Winds are expected to continue with
strong breezes before diminishing throughout the day closer to
moderate to fresh breezes. Headed into tomorrow, winds will
continue to decrease closer to gentle breezes allowing for calming
weather across the Gulf and outer coast. Wave heights continue to
be around 23 ft according to the Cape Edgecumbe buoy this morning
but should continue to decrease throughout the day today as both
the swell and wind waves diminish. By this afternoon, most places
across the outer coast look to be down to 8-14 ft seas before
coming down to 7-9 ft by this time tomorrow.

Inside Waters: Winds across the Inner Channels this morning
continue to remain around fresh to strong breezes with some
isolated pockets of near gales. Winds will continue to remain
elevated through the morning before decreasing this afternoon
closer to fresh breezes. The exception to this is expected to be
Lynn Canal which is expected to remain closer to near gales until
this evening when it diminishes closer to a fresh breeze. Headed
into tomorrow, outflow conditions continue to look likely for the
Inner Channels with winds shifting to out of the north by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ318-319.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-032-034-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF

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