239
FXAK67 PAJK 072233
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
233 PM AKDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SHORT TERM...The unsettled weather pattern continues through the
the remainder of the week, with periods of rain and breezy
conditions across the panhandle.

Aloft, a broad upper level trough axis continues to remain
stalled across the Gulf of AK, stretching as far N as the Bering
sea. Systems will continue to race N along the eastern flank of
the trough, bringing periods of rain to the panhandle, along with
surges of wind as each wave moves inland.

None of the systems look particularly impressive, but together
they add up to a rain filled week ahead across most of the
panhandle. Some snow may try to mix in, and for the northern
highways even accumulate, on Tuesday night as cool air advects in
aloft behind one of the waves (a weak cold front). That being
said, expect sea level locations to remain by and large snow
free. Breezy conditions will occur as each wave passes,
particularly Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday night than during previous
nights, in the wake of the cold front. However, locations at or
near sea level will still remain above freezing. Forecaster
confidence is average.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...Main forcing mechanisms
for AK weather for the start of the mid range are a 500 mb arctic
low north of the Bering dropping a second low at times centered over
the AK Gulf. Towards the weekend the arctic low begins to drop
southward tracking over the AK Gulf Sunday into Monday. Overall
typical spring pattern for the region keeping mostly damp conditions,
with some cooler air moving in. At the surface while models more in
line weakening any Thursday system still enough differences in
timing and strength that details are not nailed down yet.

The front crossing over Tuesday shears apart Wednesday with
increased breaks in precip. The strong low indicated by some models
Thursday is now either not indicated or just shown as a weaker
system tracking north but enough to increase chances of precip
Thursday into Friday. The weekend starts off with a break in between
the Friday low and the next likely strong low approaching by Sunday
into Monday. At this time this low will likely be gale force with
possible storm force winds along with a long fetch of moisture and
heavy rainfall. At least that is what is indicated now as the 500 mb
low drops down. Beyond that the weather is a repeat, lows move in,
some breaks, another low moves in.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Tuesday afternoon / Generally consistent
weather through the Tuesday afternoon. South-southeast flow
pattern continues to stream through the panhandle and along the
coast. This will maintain the moisture, light rain, and cloud
cover over the forecast area. A fair portion of the ceilings in
the panhandle are 1500 to 2500 feet, and anticipate those to
continue overnight. For most part visibility restrictions are
limited and and not around this afternoon. May see some localized
patchy fog develop overnight. Anticipate that Tuesday will
continue to see similar cloud cover levels into the afternoon.
Yakutat potentially may see Wind sheer with the winds along the
coast with one of the troughs approaching the northeast gulf coast
during the day Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...Gulf: Elevated seas continue through the week, with
seas continuing to diminish through Monday night, before
remaining between 7 - 10 ft on Tuesday, and then subsiding further
on Wednesday. By Wednesday, seas will be generally higher in the
southern gulf, and lower in the northern Gulf.

Inner Channels: Prevailing wind direction shifts from N to S Monday
evening, with southerly flow subsequently prevailing through
Wednesday. Winds remain largely around moderate to fresh breeze
Monday night, before increasing to strong breeze for some channels
on Tuesday as a weak cold front sweeps up from the S. WInd speeds
diminish back to moderate to fresh breeze on Wednesday for most of
the channels, although Clarence Strait could see stronger winds.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...GFS

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