859
FXAK67 PAJK 041544
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
644 AM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A low enters the gulf today bringing gales to the southern gulf
  and increasing winds across the panhandle.

- First wave of precipitation moves S to N across the panhandle
  today, and falling apart over the central panhandle. More
  organized front moves in by tomorrow morning.

- An active week continues as multiple low pressure systems move
  into the gulf sending fronts over the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low continues to move northward into
the Gulf, with the first wave of precipitation moving across the
panhandle today. This first weak wave is currently over the
southern panhandle, quickly moving northward this morning through
this afternoon where it will begin to shear apart over the central
panhandle. The highest PoPs into tonight will be just along the
coast and over Icy Strait corridor, before the wave moves westward
offshore, dragging the precipitation chances to linger most along
the outer coast and offshore by later tonight. There will be a
break in between waves by tomorrow morning as this one breaks
down and moves out, with some of the central and northern
panhandle not seeing precipitation chances increase again until
tomorrow afternoon when the next more organized front pushes in
from the south. The southern panhandle will see a break in the
rain for this afternoon after the first wave passes, this break
lasting until early tomorrow morning as the front moves in.

Some increased NE winds coming out of Taku Inlet this evening
through tomorrow, and potential for mountain wave action tonight
and again tomorrow morning based on HI RES models and mountain
wave conditions for the downtown Juneau and Gastineau Channel
area down to Thane, with HI RES guidance showing 20-25 kt gusts
between 03 and 09z tonight and 25-30kt gusts for tomorrow morning.
Between the high res models, seeing a 50-60% probability of wind
gusts greater than 45 mph downtown tomorrow morning. The mountain
wave guidance shows Favorable conditions in these time frames,
with the synoptic scale showing a critical layer at 500 mb with
some wind shear, soundings for Juneau showing an inversion and
strong stability up to around 750 mb, and cross barrier flow at
925 mb of 30-35 kt NE winds, stronger for the tomorrow morning
period. Biggest forecast challenge for the potential for mountain
wave activity will be if the winds will mix down to the surface or
not, as well as the disparity between the models on the timing and
strength of the strongest gusts.

.LONG TERM...
Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the
panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the
southern gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as the
low begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the gulf,
and high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over the Yukon and
BC, the east to west facing channels will see a more significant
increase in winds. Specifically, the north and central inner
channels will see increased winds to 25 to 30 kts out of the north
and east, dependent on the channel orientation. This pressure
gradient will also create easterly winds across the Coastal Mountain
Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind strengths
near Juneau and Taku Inlet. Although these winds will not be the
strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 30 to 40% chance of seeing
gusts up to 40 mph early Wednesday morning. Other inside waters are
likely to experience fresh to strong breezes of northerly 15 to 25
kts as the low moves north.

After Wednesday, winds slightly decrease across the panhandle
through Thursday. An active weather week still remains in place as
the low in the gulf continues to send shortwaves across the
panhandle. Times of moderate to heavy rain are likely on Thursday
and Friday, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.
To end the week, another low begins to move north into the gulf
Saturday into Sunday. The movement of this low is assisted by an
upper level jet that moves over the southern panhandle Saturday into
Sunday. There is still uncertainty on the strength and position of
this low, but both ensembles and deterministic models show the low
moving into the eastern gulf coast Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION.../ through Wednesday morning/

General VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this morning
with CIGS AoA 3500ft and visibilities greater than 6SM as a weak
front pushes across the panhandle. Lone outsider is Juneau this
morning, with clearing skies for a few hours tonight has reduced
down to LIFR with CIGS around 200ft and intermittent visibilities
down to 1/2 sm. For northern panhandle TAF sites along and north
of the Icy Strait corridor, anticipating predominate VFR
conditions to prevail through the afternoon as a front pushes off
the coast, leading to off shore flow and clearing skies. For
southern panhandle TAF sites, VFR to MVFR flight conditions
through the afternoon with ceilings AoB 5000ft, reducing down to
around 2500ft intermittently as front passes over.

Winds should generally remain 10kts or less through the
afternoon, reaching up to 15kts at Sitka with isolated gusts up to
25kts. No significant LLWS concerns, however, will see broad E to
SE-ly flow aloft around 2000ft near 35kts persisting over the
southern inner channels through Tuesday, increasing up to 45kts
SE-ly just off- shore over the Eastern Gulf.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Easterly winds increasing throughout the day to
20-30 kt along the coast and eastern Gulf by midday with increased
winds coming out from Cross Sound, and gale force (35-40 kt)
winds moving into the southern outside waters by tonight as the
low moves into the Gulf. 7 to 10 ft seas building to 12 to 15 ft
along the nearshore waters and 15 to 22 ft further offshore in the
southern Gulf. SW swell becoming SE swell moving into the southern
Gulf tonight.

Inner Channels: Winds predominantly below 15 kt across the inner
channels will begin to increase this morning as the low approaches
the panhandle. Near the ocean entrances including Southern Chatham
Strait near Cape Decision, Cross Sound, and southern Clarence
Strait will continue to see 20 kt easterlies today increasing to
25 kt later tonight. Gradual increase in northerly winds in
Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, out of Taku Inlet, and down north Chatham
Strait from 10-15 kt this morning becoming 20-30 kt tonight. The
strongest winds as this system impacts the panhandle will be along
the N-S channels in the central and northern panhandle as the
northerly winds strengthen from a tightening N-S gradient, while
winds in the southern panhandle from Sumner Strait southward will
primarily see easterly winds with the strongest 15-20 kt winds
expected to be coming out of NE oriented inlets this evening
through tonight.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>033-036-641>644-651-
     652-663-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino

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