576
FXAK67 PAJK 172341
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SHORT TERM...Some light precipitation remains over the
northern panhandle this afternoon with some lasting cloud cover and
drizzle that will linger into this evening. These remnants of the
shortwave moving through is going to be followed by ridging over the
Gulf, which will again result in some drier conditions across the
panhandle into this weekend.

No major changes made to the forecast outside of making the PoPs
lasting a bit longer into this evening as the rain lingers over the
northern panhandle. Still seeing max temperatures in the mid to high
60s for the central and northern panhandle, and max temperatures
around 70 for the southern panhandle. Continuing to expect clearer
skies tonight into tomorrow, particularly for the northern panhandle
and the more inland areas. The far outer coastline will still see
some lingering cloud cover due to the ridge along the coast bringing
moisture along the shore, potentially leading to the creation of a
marine layer now that ridging is setting up again following the
shortwave. The clearer skies for the rest of the panhandle should
allow for more heating of surfaces and enhance some of the winds
along the inner channels, bringing a sea breeze of 15 to 20 kts in
some areas. The biggest area seeing this so far has been around
Ketchikan due to the southern panhandle seeing more clearing today,
so other areas might see a stronger sea breeze tomorrow afternoon
and evening as well due to the wide spread clearing in the cloud
cover. Skagway has also been seeing winds of 15 to 20 kts this
afternoon and early evening due to a sea breeze developing, and the
same area is expected to pick up again tomorrow around the same time.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
A broad upper level ridge and surface high pressure system in the
southern Gulf of Alaska continues to build through the week, very
slowly moving northwest. This ridging will funnel more dry air
over the panhandle, continuing the warming and drying trend into
the long term. Multiple approaching shortwaves in the gulf attempt
to strengthen through the weekend which could increase chances
for light precipitation along the northern gulf coast, though all
seem to break apart before reaching the outer coast. The surface
ridging continues to strengthen into early next week which will
clear out skies and tighten the pressure gradient, increasing wind
speeds along the gulf coast. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds
will increase to at least 20 kts going into cross sound, with
highest speeds reaching around 25 kts off the southwestern coast
of PoW. Gusts may reach 30 kts in Dixon Entrance. Clearing skies
will allow for a sea breeze to develop in some of the inner
channels, with winds potentially reaching 10 to 15 kts near the
water in Juneau, Haines, and Skagway. Stronger winds are expected
through Icy Strait and up Lynn Canal with this sea breeze, peaking
in the mid afternoon. This is also conducive to marine layer
development along the gulf coast which will bring low clouds to
coastal regions and pushing into Cross Sound.

High temperatures of up to 15 degrees C at 850 mb and clearing
skies indicate warmer surface temperatures for early next week,
peaking Monday and Tuesday. Interior regions of the panhandle will
experience the highest temperatures, with highs potentially
reaching the mid to high 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Max temp EFI
values have increased to 1 Monday through Wednesday, with NBM
probabilities currently indicating a 60% potential of reaching 80
degrees in areas of Skagway and Haines on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Variable flight conditions prevail across the area as an upper
level shortwave continues to push through the northern panhandle.
Worst flight conditions remain along the coast as shortwave in
tandem with slow retreating persistent marine layer has resulted
in CIGS AoB 2000ft and intermittent visbys down to 2SM for Sitka
and Klawock. Best flight conditions will remain near Ketchikan through
the afternoon under a high level FEW to SCT cloud deck. Through
the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, anticipating general
trend of low- end MVFR to low-end VFR conditions to continue,
with IFR CIGS developing by 09 to 12z through Friday morning.

Winds should remain around 12kts or less through the afternoon
for much of the panhandle, outside of Skagway which will see
elevated sustained winds 15 to 20kts with sporadic gusts up to 25
kts developing into the evening. Winds decrease to 5kts or less
through late Thursday night, going calm and variable. No LLWS
concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Outside: Ridging develops again over the Gulf behind the
shortwave that moved through during the day, winds along the
coast staying NW 15 to 20 kts. The strongest of these winds will
be near Cape Decision and into Dixon Entrance. Wave heights remain
5 to 6 ft west of POW Island. Wave heights will subside to 4 ft
by tomorrow morning, with winds decreasing to 10 to 15 kt into
tomorrow night. Winds in the Gulf will stay at these lower speeds
until Sunday, where winds along the outer coast will again
increase to around 20 kt with seas of 7 to 8 ft just west of POW
as the ridge strengthens in the Gulf and the pressure gradient
increases. Wave period will be 14 to 16 seconds with a swell from
the SW at 3 ft going into Saturday.

Inside: The ridge this afternoon has increased the pressure
gradient across the panhandle, causing winds in southern Clarence
Strait and near Cape Decision to stay around 15 kts before
diminishing later tonight to 10 kts. The northern panhandle has
also seen winds increase in northern Lynn Canal to between 15 and
20 kts this afternoon, which will diminish late tonight into
Friday. Winds will then remain lower for Friday into the weekend,
with most of the inner channels seeing speeds between 5 and 10
kts. The exception to this is parts of northern Lynn Canal, Icy
Strait and southern Clarence Strait, which may see some increases
to 15 kts due to the E-W gradient (and N-S gradient for northern
Lynn Canal) tightening in the afternoons as well as potential for
sea breezes that may cause local increases between 15 and 20 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino

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