849
FXAK67 PAJK 121305
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
505 AM AKDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ Another batch of rain and
wind is approaching the southern panhandle this morning as a new
low moves into the SE Gulf today. So far rain has been observed as
far north as Gustavus from both surface obs and radar, and winds
in the south are slowly starting to increase. As the low moves
into the eastern gulf it is expected to stall off the outer coast
with rain continuing to lash the southern panhandle through at
least Sunday. Rainfall rates are not expected to be high with 0.1
to 0.15 inches per hour at times being the highest. Total rainfall
through Saturday night is around 0.5 to 1 inch.

As for winds, southerly winds to 20 kt are still being observed
from Eldred Rock this morning though those are expected to
diminish by mid day. The focus instead will be on the southern
panhandle as frontal bands from the low in the gulf move in.
Highest winds will mainly be in the southern half of the panhandle
with 25 to 30 kt likely for Clarence Strait today. Gusts of
around that high will likely also be observed around Annette
Island, Ketchikan and southern Prince of Wales today before
diminishing tonight. No significant changes to timing or strength
of winds for the short range forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...

Key messages:
- Low continues precip for southern panhandle Sunday morning
- High pushes up from the south, dry but clouds linger next week

Details: Remaining precipitation over the southern and central
panhandle will diminish through the day, allowing potential for
blue skies to peek out in northernmost regions. Ridging moving
north through the gulf will push the low out of the panhandle and
set up for potential drier weather by Sunday afternoon. Clouds
are expected to linger through the beginning of next week, with
potential for skies to clear out in the southern panhandle for
Tuesday. Clearing skies, from south to north, along with warmer
temperatures aloft should allow for temperatures to rise near 70
degrees at the surface for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the highest chances for the southern panhandle and
communities in the inner channels. These temperatures could be
offset in many areas by the development of an afternoon sea
breeze. In the interior, Hyder could even see temperatures reach
near 80 degrees during this time.

A disorganized surface level low with associated upper level
troughing looks to bring precipitation back to the northern
panhandle Thursday, spreading south through Friday. Model spread
leaves much to be desired at this point, with many aspects of this
system varying from run to run including timing and associated
precipitation amounts. Stay tuned for further updates as we go
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday brings with it two sharply contrasting
weather patterns for different parts of the panhandle.

Across the northern half of the panhandle, an initial mixed bag of
MVFR/VFR conditions and blustery winds for locations in the
vicinity of Lynn Canal will improve through the day, especially
during the afternoon hours. Many locations will break out into
VFR as synoptic scale flow turns out of the N or turns light.
Saturday night may feature some fog for areas, but any fog that
forms will dissipate Sunday morning after sunrise.

Across the southern panhandle, conditions will distinctly not be
improving through the day on Saturday. Another system moving in
will result in widespread MVFR conditions, and a few locations
will drop into IFR. Many sites will hover between 1500-2500 ft
CIG through the day, and some visibility restrictions are likely
when heavier bands of precip move through. Wind gusts of up to 25
to 30 mph at surface level are expected, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Some LLWS is also expected,
with the worst LLWS along Prince of Wales Island and in places
like Ketchikan. Conditions will begin to improve Saturday night as
the system departs.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside: There will be a marked difference between the northern
and southern inner channels today. Northern channels are expected
to see diminishing winds today and are expected to stay mostly low
into tonight. Many north/south oriented channels will likely see
a wind direction shift to a northerly direction tonight as the
low in the gulf stalls offshore. How strong that northerly becomes
will likely depend on how strong the pressure gradient becomes to
the north of the low but 10 to 15 kt seems the highest. Meanwhile
the southern panhandle will see increasing winds this morning as
the low approaches with the highest winds this afternoon before
diminishing tonight. Clarence Strait and the marine areas around
Prince of Wales Island in particular will be under the gun for 25
to 30 kt SE winds and some higher waves brought in from Hecate
Strait this afternoon.

Outside: Winds in the near shore waters of the gulf have shifted
to SE overnight with speeds reaching 17 kt at the west Dixon
Entrance buoy as the next low is approaching from the WSW. Expect
areas off Prince of Wales and Baranof to see a period of 25 kt SE
winds as the main frontal bands approach the coast around mid
day. These winds are then expected to diminish as the low stalls
and decays into Sunday. Lighter winds expected farther north
through the weekend though some gap flow out of Cross Sound and
other smaller channels near it to 15 kt will likely develop this
afternoon. Seas have been stable at around 5 to 7 ft this morning
partly from wind waves and partly from a 5 ft S to SW swell with a
9 sec period. Expect seas to build to around 8 to 9 ft off of
Prince of Wales and Baranof Island this afternoon and evening due
to the increased surface winds before subsiding back to around 5
to 6 ft by Sunday with little change in swell.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....ZTK/STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL

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