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FXAK67 PAJK 310543 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
943 PM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.UPDATE...For the evening aviation and marine program updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Not a whole lot of change to the previous set of
forecasts. General trend is for MVFR CIGS and OCNL VSBYS to move
up into the central Panhandle Friday as a weak frontal occlusion
moves a bit closer into the southern Panhandle. The low associated
with the weak front is well to the southwest and is actually
projected by all of the numerical modeling guidance to fill and
weaken through early in the weekend, not making much if any
progress to the north. Therefore, we kept the prevailing lower
CIGS and VSBYS (MVFR) generally Sitka to Juneau southward for
Friday, and really moreso for mid to late afternoon for as far
north as Juneau. We do have patchy fog in around Icy Strait and
Gustavus toward morning.  05/Garmon

&&

.MARINE...The 1004mb low near 51.1N and 140.6W continues this
evening to make a very slow drift to the SE, and we continue to
see a zone of increased pressure gradient on the northeast side of
that low bringing winds up over the open GulfAK waters off
southern Prince of Wales and off the Dixon Entrance tonight. Given
the pattern, we feel it prudent to keep the Small Craft
Advisories as previously posted for the GulfAK coastal waters in
that area. Otherwise, we did bump up the winds for the
northernmost reaches of Lynn Canal this evening where a seabreeze
had developed in Taiya Inlet (20-25kt). Although we will see more
mid-deck clouds tomorrow, we still feel that SW winds 15 kt for
Taiya Inlet again is a good bet, if not all of the northern
stretches of Lynn Canal. Otherwise...no changes. 05/Garmon

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 338 PM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-A weakening low pressure system over the southern gulf is
 continuing to bring more rain today to the central and southern
 panhandle with intensity lowering over the next few days.

-A warmer and drier trend in store for SE AK as a ridge builds
 over the gulf Friday afternoon and moves eastward through the
 weekend, also causing winds to weaken through this time.

-High temperatures across the panhandle in the mid 60s to low 70s
 expected, with inland areas possibly seeing up to high 70s on
 Saturday given ample clearing in clouds.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday/...Higher pressure encroaching
across the northern gulf is providing relatively clear skies for the
northern panhandle Thursday afternoon. A low currently spinning off
of Haida Gwaii has draped a frontal trough over the southern
panhandle leading to extensive cloud cover and rain showers. Higher
level clouds have pushed as far north as Angoon and Icy Strait, but
plenty of sunshine is still to be had through the afternoon and
evening with high temperatures approaching 70 as of this discussion
for much of the northern inner channels. For the Chilkat Valley down
to Haines temperatures exceeding 70 degrees are already being
observed due to downsloping winds coming from the interior and down
the Chilkat Valley.

For tonight, flow in the upper levels is expected to remain fairly
stagnant over the northern panhandle due to offsetting impacts from
a front extending over the Yukon and the stalled front over the
southern panhandle, along with the above mentioned high pressure. A
short wave impulse riding around the low southwest of Haida Gwaii is
expected to give a resounding kick to the stalled front over the
southern panhandle overnight into Friday morning. This will result
the front pushing northward through the day, bringing showers and
gusty winds shifting out of the south. For more info on what to
expect out on the water, see the marine discussion below.

The timing of showers and thicker cloud cover reaching the
northern panhandle will likely not put too much of a damper on
temperatures Friday, but overall they are expected to be not as
high for the central panhandle and along the Icy Strait corridor.

Similar to today, once this shortwave expends its energy through
Friday night, showers and cloud cover are expected to diminish from
north to south on Saturday with strengthening high pressure over the
southern gulf and west of Haida Gwaii by mid weekend. See the long
term discussion below for what to expect heading into next week.

LONG TERM.../Sunday Through Mid Week/...Beginning the latter
half of the weekend will be a return to high pressure for much of
the eastern gulf, with a trough exiting to the south of Haida
Gwaii. For winds, northwesterlies along the western coast south of
Cape Edgecumbe are expected to increase to at least 20 knots as
the trough drops south and the high pressure builds. Aloft, a
weak, dirty ridge with some energy working eastward along the
northern gulf will keep a general cloudiness with a nonzero
possibility of rain, particularly for the northeast gulf coast and
Icy Strait over to Juneau. Furthermore, timing regarding these
showers certainly display a high degree of uncertainty. Chances
for right now are around 20% particularly around Sunday night and
through Monday, with highest chances along west facing mountains.

Transitioning into the midweek, a stronger system moves into the
Anchorage area, with a portion of the storm spilling into the
Yakutat Area. Not expecting any impactful rainfall totals at this
time, with a majority of the moisture directed towards Prince
William Sound and westward.

AVIATION...A frontal system continues to traverse across the
southern and central panhandle through the rest of today and into
tomorrow. Currently the front is producing mostly VFR conditions,
however, an occasional drop down to MVFR CIG/VIS will continue
through this evening during heavier rain showers. Starting around
12Z conditions south of PAWG will drop down to prevailing MVFR
CIG/VIS, this will then slowly spread north towards the PAJN-PAGS
line through Friday. Alongside the drops in CIG/VIS will be
isolated areas of LLWS, predominately for the most southern
terminals. LLWS conditions will continue to weaken through the
rest of today.

Elsewhere/otherwise VFR conditions will remain in place through
tomorrow morning. With the exception being some patchy marine fog
that develops during the overnight/early morning hours. Any
fog/low stratus that develops should remain fairly thin (<100ft
thick) and efficiently mix out due to day time heating as well as
increased winds come Friday morning.

MARINE...
A low centered over the NE Pacific will continue tracking SE
through Saturday, with the associated frontal system wrapping
around over the SE portions of the Gulf of AK and southern inner
channels. Over the outer waters E-SE winds associated with the
front have been consistently 25-30kts with gusts up 35kts. A S-SE
swell of 2-3ft is resulting in combined seas in the 6-9ft range
over the Southeastern Gulf. As the low tracks south, the front
will swing NW through Friday winds and combined seas will
gradually ease below small craft advisory criteria by Friday
afternoon.

While there are no products currently issued for the inner waters,
the aforementioned front will be the feature to watch during the
overnight and early Friday afternoon. As the front moves
north/northwest over the panhandle, winds ahead of it will be
become north or easterly (depending on the orientation of the
channel). However, as the front moves through winds will shift to
have more of a southerly component. While it is expected to remain
below advisory criteria, mariners should expect choppy conditions
during the wind shift.

Marine conditions will improve behind the front, however the
southerly winds through N-S oriented channels (e.g. Lynn Canal &
Clarence Strait) could remain gusty through Friday afternoon
(20-25kts). By the weekend marine weather is expected to be
fairly benign with no major systems moving through.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Butwin
MARINE...Butwin

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