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FXAK67 PAJK 250008 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 PM AKDT Sat May 24 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Long Term Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A front continues to move over the panhandle this
afternoon into tonight, increasing winds and bringing moderate to
heavy precipitation across the panhandle. The most precipitation
appears to have fallen across the southern panhandle as expected,
with rain rates around 0.1 inch per hour seen within the last few
hours around Ketchikan, Annette Island and southern POW. The rain
has moved up into the northern panhandle by Skagway by this
afternoon, but with lower rain amounts than we have seen across
the southern panhandle. This moisture will continue to push
through before being followed by more precipitation pushed into
the panhandle by waves rotating around the low. This rain later
tonight will be light to moderate with around 0.1 inch every 3
hours expected, these lower values of QPF lasting through early
Monday morning. As this lighter precipitation gets pushed up the
panhandle, winds will also begin to decrease later tonight into
Sunday morning. Winds along the outer coast and into Clarence
Strait will however remain around 15 to 25 kts until the next wave
pushes through Sunday night and brings another increase to the
winds to the coast and inner channels. For more information, read
the marine section below.

.LONG TERM...Looking towards next week, the rainy weather looks
to stick around for several days.

Key points:
-Lighter rain Sunday night into Monday, heavier rain returns late
 Monday and lasts through Wednesday.
-Stronger-than-normal southerly winds will move into the southern
 panhandle.

Details:
The southern portions of Alaska will continue to remain rather
unsettled given the time of year with periods of rainfall likely
each day from the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the southeast
Panhandle region. A weakening low pressure system this weekend
will give way to an incoming low from the Bering that will set up
over the central Gulf through the middle of next week, with
continuing moist onshore flow.

The greatest rainfall coverage and intensity is still expected
from Icy Strait to the far southern Panhandle. A heavy rain area
remains depicted in the WPC medium range hazards graphic for the
25th to the 28th, given how late in the season this is, and the
duration of the rainfall expected. The highest rainfall is likely
to be south of the Sitka area based on the latest model guidance.

The EFI tables give the greatest amounts of rain from Monday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show high
confidence of elevated amounts of rain, with a Shift of Tails of
near 1 to 2 in EFI tables - which tells us that this is an
extreme event for this time of year. For Ketchikan, there is high
confidence (>60%) chance of getting at least 2 inches of rain over
24 hours beginning Monday afternoon. And it`s a similar story for
areas around Prince of Wales Island and for Metlakatla.

For wind speeds, the EFI is highlighting stronger-than-normal
southerly wind speeds Saturday through mid-week. Marine wind
speeds in the southern inner channels could get upwards of 20 to
35 knots with the strongest speeds found in southern Clarence
Strait and in the outside waters.

On the horizon, the upper level pattern looks to break down
slightly towards the end of the week, with the stagnant upper
level low lifting northwards. However it is quickly replaced with
another more shallow trough which is still likely to steer
another system into the Gulf and towards the panhandle next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Variable MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the
panhandle with predominate VFR flight conditions along and north
of Frederick Sound with overcast CIGS AoA 5000ft and the
occasional SCT to BKN layer. Sustained winds should remain near
15kts or less with isolated gusts up to 25kts possible towards the
beginning and the end of the period.

South of Frederick Sound, a slow moving front has pushed over the
southern panhandle bringing near-gale winds with MVFR CIGs around
2000 to 3000ft reported near Ketchikan. Throughout the period,
conditions will slowly drop into MVFR and low-end VFR with CIGS
AoB 4000ft and reduced visibilities of as low as 4SM.
Precipitation has already spread north to most sites. The
strongest winds and the worst of the flight conditions will be
across the southern and central panhandle TAF sites with sustained
winds up to 25kts and frequent gusts up to 35kts. Klawock is
staying more wind-blocked than expected, though they still have
the chance to see isolated gusts up to 20kts. Flight conditions
will continue to deteriorate through Saturday for the majority of
SEAK TAF sites, outside of Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway where
effects are most likely to be felt around 10Z Sunday when a
reinforcing front pushes inland. There is potential for CIGs to
start rising around 18Z Sunday for a majority of southern and
central sites, though light precipitation and steady winds will
continue through the period.

Main aviation concern continues to be southeasterly LLWS for the
southern and central TAF sites through the afternoon. LLWS will be
strongest near Ketchikan and Klawock, increasing in strength to
peak near 45kts through 00Z. Petersburg and Wrangell may see up to
35kts of shear below 2000ft through around 04Z. Multiple reports
of turbulence have been received following the front, reaching as
far north as Juneau.

&&

.MARINE.../ through Monday night / Quasi-stationary low in the
southern gulf holding in place through Sunday. The low weakens
Sunday and is pushed northward into the eastern gulf as the next
frontal band starts pulling northeast and to the panhandle Late
Monday. Winds 20 to 25 kt along the southern coastal zone and
into Clarence Strait this evening, and will be 15 to 20 kt over
all into Sunday and Sunday evening. The incoming frontal band will
bring gale force winds to the southern coastal waters and trying
to move to Clarence Strait again Monday night.

Winds southerly for the southern half of the panhandle inner
channels generally with Northern channels with North flow and
occasionally switching south as the front gets closer. Icy Strait
and Cross Sound will predominantly have a easterly wind to 10 to
20 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As far as rainfall amounts, latest EURO and GFS
ensembles are averaging about 1 inch of rain for today through
tonight, closer to 2 inches for the southern panhandle`s 24 hour
accumulation, but lower amounts of QPF for Sunday and Monday
morning (between 0.5 to 1 inch in 24 hrs). Areas on the windward
side of mountains could get a little more. Overall, a rainy
weekend but no flooding is expected at this time.

A stronger system will be moving in Monday night into Tuesday
with a wet moisture plume and a moderate atmospheric river for
the southern panhandle. The EC is still showing the atmospheric
river to be moving more directly into the panhandle Tuesday, but
now the GFS is beginning to track the AR further north into the
panhandle as well compared to the model runs yesterday, giving us
a bit more confidence on the location of the AR and its strength.
Both are now showing it to be a moderate AR for the southern
panhandle, with some coastal locations for both the GFS and EC
having an AR3 on the AR scale. The 00Z run for the EFI QPF table,
continued to show us a shift of tails of 2 and confidence above
the 90th percentile for a significant portion of the southern
panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the most recent 12Z run
has a SoT of 1 and shows it moving up into more of the panhandle
on Wednesday. For now it`s something we`re watching as we get
closer and as we gain confidence. As of now we are not seeing any
flooding concerns for this event.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-641>644-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Contino

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