837
FXAK67 PAJK 011151
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow continues with persistent showers through the
  upcoming weekend.

- Gusty winds over land for northern half of the area as another
  wave pushes through Saturday afternoon and into the evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms, primarily for the gulf and outer coastal
  waters through Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Active weather continues across the panhandle as
another frontal band is set to move through the area Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening, with abundant onshore flow
preceding it resulting in widespread rain showers ahead of its
arrival.

Satellite and radar imagery as of early Saturday morning show
widespread convective activity (showers) across the panhandle,
fueled by steeper mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a trough
which moved through the preceding day. A few of these showers are
producing lightning and thunder, and outer coastal waters and
communities like Sitka will see continued chances for
thunderstorms continuing through the day on Saturday.

Our next organized system is already taking shape. A strong ~965
mb low in the western gulf will meander into the northern gulf
through the day as it slowly fills in and weakens. A tightly
wound front will race around the low and move up into the
panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting the
northern half of the area. Anticipate winds - which are already
elevated in some areas - to strengthen significantly, especially
for areas from Sitka Sound northward. Winds across some locations
like Juneau will likely see gusts up to 35 kt by the late
afternoon and evening hours. Widespread moderate to heavy rain
will also occur, with the heaviest rainfall across the NE Gulf
Coast. Accumulating snow is also expected along the Klondike
Highway, mainly above elevations of 2000 feet, though for the time
being, do not expect accumulations to pile up fast enough to
warrant an advisory or a warning.

The main changes to the forecast were to strengthen winds on
Saturday in conjunction with the next frontal band. QPF totals
were also increased somewhat, largely across the northern half of
the panhandle and the NE Gulf Coast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Not many changes were
made to the extended forecast, with the main ones being timing
and strength of the winds going into Sunday morning. Along the
northern gulf coast, the E to SE winds were bumped forward a few
hours and therefore diminish quicker. In the inner channels, winds
were slightly increased and prolonged going into Sunday, as well
as Tuesday night. The previous gale force low bringing impacts
Friday into Saturday will stall in the northwestern gulf through
Sunday, enhancing S to SW onshore flow and allowing for widespread
shower development to push into the panhandle. Overall winds for
the panhandle will steadily decrease through the end of the
weekend into early next week, though showers may still bring
periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds as they pass
over.

Shower potential will begin to diminish Monday afternoon as a
fast moving system dips into the southern gulf, turning overall
flow more E to SE. Rain rates for the northern panhandle
significantly drop early next week, and some small breaks in the
clouds may be possible as well. The associated frontal band will
mainly affect areas south of the panhandle along the eastern BC
coast, though it will attempt to wrap around and swing up into the
southern panhandle overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This could
allow for some enhanced easterly winds, especially through gaps in
terrain. Rain rates will start low and slowly pick up through the
week, with less than half an inch expected in 24 hours when the
system initially hits increasing to around an inch in 24 hours by
Wednesday. Near gale to gale force E to SE winds (28 to 40 kts)
will pick up in the southeastern gulf through the day Tuesday, and
with high pressure developing in YT, the pressure gradient over
the panhandle will begin to tighten and turn. This will allow for
outflow winds to pick up going into Wednesday, with areas such as
Lynn Canal seeing wind speeds reaching gale force for a short
while Wednesday morning. This low looks to similarly stall in the
gulf for a few days, potentially helping to steer showers or
another system into the panhandle for next weekend. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will prevail through the
weekend before the northern panhandle drops significantly to highs
in the low 40s going into next week. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s this weekend, with the northern panhandle following the
trend and dropping down to low 30s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions exist across the panhandle this morning
with some pockets of MVFR. Showers continue to move onshore along
the panhandle bringing lowered conditions. There have been some
occasional lightning strikes, especially as the showers hit the
mountains as they move onshore this morning. These showers are
expected to continue along with the potential for some occasional
lightning. Gusty winds also exist with these showers. Besides the
gusty winds, winds in the first 2,000ft continue to range from
20-40 kt across the panhandle so there is the potential for LLWS
today, especially through the morning hours. Concerns from the
AAWU for the morning hours will be the potential for some isolated
moderate icing across the panhandle as well as isolated moderate
turbulence for the northern Gulf coast.

&&

.MARINE...Main story: Elevated winds and seas continue as another
front moves into the area.

Outside Waters: Winds in the Gulf will be on an upward trend
through the morning as another front sweeps across the outer
waters and enters the panhandle. Sustained winds will reach 40-45
kt and waveheights of 22-27 ft are expected. Through the evening
and overnight hours, winds and waves will slowly subside,
diminishing to 20-30 kt and 12-15 feet respectively. Winds and
waveheights will continue on a diminishing trend through Sunday,
before a weak wave moves up from the south on Monday. Wave period
as of early Saturday morning is 13-15 seconds with a SW swell.

Inside Waters: Winds in the inside waters will be on a
strengthening trend through the day as another front moves across
the panhandle. Through the afternoon hours, winds ranging from
strong breezes to gale-force will be present across the inner
channels, alongside elevated wave heights. Some relief is expected
on Sunday, when wind speeds diminish down towards 15 - 25 kt
(fresh breeze to strong breeze).

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-034>036-053-641.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS

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