036
FXAK67 PAJK 101837 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1037 AM AKDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...Mid-Morning and 18z Aviation Discussion Update...
Updated the forecast to try and better match with current
conditions across the area. Most places are seeing lighter winds
than what was expected earlier this morning. But there are a few
places were winds are over performing compared to forecast
guidance and were brought in line to try and reflect this trend.
Otherwise, the overall forecast trend continues to remain on track
with the area seeing a break from the rain late this morning and
afternoon before the rain returns heading into this evening and
into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Downward trend through this afternoon as the surface low has both
weakened into an open wave trough and has begun to push into
British Columbia. Behind the wave, ridging aloft is causing
pressure rises of around 1 mb per hour with predominantly westerly
wind aloft. This westerly wind is key to areas expected to have
the highest chances at rain this morning and afternoon. Looking
for west facing mountains to have the highest rain chances from
orographic lifting processes. However, looking at satellite, a big
swath of dry air is pushing in from the west as well, which will
erode away precipitation chances today. Therefore, highest chances
of precipitation are this morning, with accumulations less than
an inch.

Looking towards tonight, another surge of moisture looks to push
over the panhandle, primarily aimed between Port Alexander and
Elfin Cove to begin with, then sliding south through Monday
morning. For more information, see the Hydrology section.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
- Lingering light rain into Tuesday from a quick moving system to
  start the week.
- Winds on a downward swing across the inner channels Tuesday/Wednesday.
- Ridge builds in the gulf through midweek with drier conditions
  across the panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Rain to

Details: Continuing from the short term, the path of the fast
moving system on Monday will lead to increased winds in the inner
channels once more before gradually decreasing. Winds in the gulf
will pick up out of the southwest once more reaching up to strong
breeze (23 - 27 knots) before gradually dropping to fresh breeze
(17 - 21 knots) as a ridge builds over the gulf and flow along the
outer coast turns northwesterly.

This surface ridge coupled with an upper level ridge will bring
drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday across the panhandle,
along with less cloud cover and warmer daytime highs up to around
70, particularly for the southern panhandle. Model spread reigns
supreme for late next week, but as of this discussion, sometime
Thursday looks like when we can expect rain and cloud cover to
make their presence know again with a potential low forming in the
gulf.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Monday/
Main aviation concern through the period will be lingering
reduced CIGS and Visbys through early Sunday afternoon. Brief
improvement possible this afternoon before reduced flight
conditions and LLWS expected to return by late Sunday night.

Predominate MVFR to IFR flight conditions across the panhandle
this Sunday morning with CIGS AoB 2500ft and intermittent
visibilities down to 2 to 3SM behind a departing system.
Anticipating general MVFR flight conditions to continue, with
period of potential improvement to low VFR flight conditions this
afternoon as drier air aloft moves in with weak brief surface
ridging taking hold through the early evening, however forecast
confidence remains low on window of improving conditions. By 06z
Monday, widespread MVFR to IFR flight conditions and LLWS will
return as another front pushes into the central and southern
panhandle, with worst flying conditions expected at Sitka,
Petersburg, and Wrangell with CIGS AoB 1500 and intermittent
reduced visibilities down to 1SM at times within heaviest showers
through 15z Monday.

Winds should remain around 10kts or less through Sunday afternoon
with isolated gusts up to 20kts, outside of Skagway which will
see sustained winds up to 20kts with gusts up to 30kts as pressure
gradient tightens from departing low. Any remnant LLWS will
quickly dissipate through mid morning Sunday. However, will see
return of LLWS for central and southern panhandle sites by 06z
Monday as next front approaches, with strongest LLWS around 25 to
35kts for TAF sites along and south of a line from Sitka eastward
to Petersburg through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Along our coast, building southeasterly seas as gale
force winds increase along Cape Suckling/Cape St. Elias; buoy 82
is reporting 7ft at 7 seconds as of 1pm. Southeast seas will build
to 14ft overnight Thursday with a dominant period less than 10
seconds, max heights along Cape St. Elias. Near the Fairweather
grounds to Cape Edgecumbe anticipate sustained winds to reach
strong breezes (22 to 27 knots) with gusts to gale force, fresh
breezes (17 to 21 knots) off the coast of Prince of Wales. Winds
become southwesterly moderate breezes (11 to 16 knots) Friday.
Another system moves into the gulf late Friday bringing
southeasterly near-gale force conditions to the Fairweather
grounds and Chichagof/Baranof Coast by Saturday morning. One item
of note is a long dynamic fetch of southwesterly strong breezes
Saturday into Sunday across the far southern Gulf which will bring
elevated southwesterly seas of 11 to 13 ft at 9 to 11 seconds for
most of the coast.

Inside: Southerly winds are building across the inner channels in
response to a tightening pressure gradient between Canada and the
Gulf. By-and-large expect fresh breezes (17 to 21 knots) out of
the southeast for many of the major passages. Folks transiting
Glacier Bay will also see winds increase as the occluding front
moves over the park early Friday morning. Anticipating 15 to 25
knots of wind with the potential for slightly higher winds along
the exposed inlets that open to the north/south (like Reid Inlet).
Friday evening winds decrease a bit before another strong system
moves over the area, with sustained winds increasing back to fresh
to strong breezes (17 to 27 knots) through Saturday. Heavy
rainfall will also accompany these winds; certainly, a more
complicated weather pattern for folks navigating the inner
channels this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall will continue across the area as multiple systems move
into the panhandle through the weekend. As of Sunday morning,
heaviest rainfall rates are focused around west facing areas. In
particular, Sitka, Juneau, Petersburg, and areas near Wrangell are
the big winners, with 12 hour accumulations between 1.25 - 2.00
inches. Once more, the panhandle is on the downward trend;
however, Sunday night into Monday will see another plume of
moisture associated with a warm front move over the central
panhandle, then slowly shift southward. What is particularly
impressive about this moisture are freezing levels, which look to
exceed 12000 ft from Sitka southward. This combined with incoming
PW of 1.8 in, or about 180% of normal, will lead to heavy rain for
west facing mountains yet again. Fortunately for these areas,
ridging aloft will limit the amount of dynamic lift for areas over
the panhandle, which will limit overall rainfall. Unfortunately,
however, between the saturated air and very warm temperatures,
still looking at rising rivers and heavy rain. 1.5 - 2.25 inches
are expected, with higher amounts in west facing areas such as
Sitka. No changes with flooding -- no flooding is expected at this
time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SF
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau