907
FXNT20 KWNC 221549
PMDAHU
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 2025
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EDT Thu 22 May 2025


Note: figures mentioned in the discussion are available
on the internet at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

NOAA 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Issued 22
May 2025

The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official
product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
/NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center /CPC/. The outlook is
produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAAs
National Hurricane Center /NHC/ and Atlantic Oceanographic
and Meteorological Laboratory /AOML/. The Atlantic hurricane
region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea,
and Gulf of America.  Interpretation of NOAAs North Atlantic
hurricane season outlook: This outlook is a general guide to
the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane
season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast,
and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular
location.  Preparedness: Hurricane-related disasters can
occur during any season, even for years with low overall
activity. It only takes one hurricane /or tropical storm/ to
cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and
government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare
for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other,
seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency /FEMA/
through www.ready.gov /English/ and www.listo.gov /Spanish/,
the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red
Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information
on their web sites.  NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane
landfall predictions: NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane
landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined
by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches,
and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm
is within several days of making landfall.  Preparedness for
tropical storm and hurricane landfalls: It only takes one storm
hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall
activity for the season.  Therefore, residents, businesses,
and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions
should prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or
any other, seasonal outlook.  Nature of this Outlook and the
"likely" ranges of activity: This outlook is probabilistic,
meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain
likelihood of occurring.  The seasonal activity is expected to
fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10`seasons with similar
conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They
do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in
past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can
have dramatically different impacts.  This outlook is based
on analyses of 1/ predictions of large-scale factors known to
influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2/ long-term forecast
models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. The
outlook also takes into account uncertainties inherent in such
outlooks.  Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:
1. Predicting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation /ENSO/ phases,
which include El Nino and La Nina events and ENSO-neutral and
their impacts on North Atlantic basin hurricane activity, is
an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such
forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
2. Many combinations of named storms /tropical and subtropical
storms/, hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the
same general set of conditions. For example, one cannot know
with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with
several shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms
with greater intensity.  3. Model predictions of sea-surface
temperatures /SSTs/, vertical wind shear, moisture, atmospheric
stability, and other factors known to influence overall seasonal
hurricane activity have limited skill this far in advance of
the peak months /August-October/ of the hurricane season.
4. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on
seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks
or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.


2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
a. Predicted Activity NOAAs outlook for the 2025 North
Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that an above-normal
season is most likely, with a moderate probability that
the season could be near-normal and lower odds for a
below-normal season. The outlook calls for a 60 percent
chance of an above-normal season, along with a 30 percent
chance for a near- normal season and only a 10 percent
chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions
/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html/
of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.  The 2025
outlook calls for a 70 percent probability for each of the
following ranges of activity: ?       13-19 Named Storms
? 6-10 Hurricanes ?  3-5 Major Hurricanes ?
Accumulated Cyclone Energy /ACE/ range of 95-180 percent of
the median The seasonal activity is expected to fall within
these ranges in 70 percent of seasons with similar conditions
and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges
do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen
in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered
above the 1991-2020`seasonal averages of 14 named storms,
7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted
activity is likely to occur during August- September-October
/ASO/, the peak months of the hurricane season.

The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June
1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in
early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of
the season /ASO/.

b. Reasoning behind the outlook This 2025 seasonal hurricane
outlook reflects the expectation of factors during ASO that
have historically produced active Atlantic hurricane seasons,
though some were not as active, resulting in a range of
activity. The main atmospheric and oceanic factors for this
outlook are: 1/ The set of conditions that have produced
the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which
began in 1995 are likely to continue in 2025. These conditions
include warmer sea-surface temperatures /SSTs/ and weaker trade
winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region /MDR/,
along with weaker vertical wind shear, and a conducive West
African monsoon. The oceanic component of these conditions
is often referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
/AMO/, while the ocean/atmosphere combined system is sometimes
referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability /AMV/. The
MDR spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean
Sea. Currently observed SSTs in the MDR are similar to those
normally observed in mid June. Saharan Air Layer outbreaks
typically mitigate some of the activity early in the season,
but it is not known if this will significantly affect activity
during the peak months. Tradewinds are weaker than normal which
contributes to lower vertical wind shear. The upper-level
circulation with the West African Monsoon is near average,
though monsoon rainfall is predicted to be shifted northward
and be potentially above-average for the entire season.  2/
The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center indicates ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through
the hurricane season. During the peak months /ASO/, the
odds are highest for ENSO-neutral /54 percent/, with moderate
probabilities for La Nina /33 percent/, and low chances of an El
Nino event /13 percent/ occurring .  During a high-activity era,
ENSO-neutral is typically associated with above-average levels
of hurricane activity.La Nina events tend to reinforce those
high-activity era conditions and further increase the likelihood
of an above- normal hurricane season, while most of the inactive
seasons are associated with El Nino events.  DISCUSSION

1. Forecast 2025 activity NOAAs outlook for the 2025 North
Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that an above-normal season
is most likely /60 percent chance/. The outlook also includes
a moderate 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only
a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.  The 2025 North
Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce /with 70
percent probability for each range/ 13-19 named storms, of which
6-10 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3-5 of those are
expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered
above the 1991-2020 period averages of about 14 named storms,
7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  The 2025 outlook for
Accumulated Cyclone Energy /ACE/ index indicates a 70 percent
chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 95-180 percent of the
median. According to NOAAs hurricane season classifications,
an ACE value between 75.4 percent and 130 percent of the
1951-2020 median indicates a near-normal season. Values
above /below/ this range are associated with an above-normal
/below-normal/ season. The 2025 predicted ACE range is centered
in the above-normal range, and has a portion of the forecast
distribution lying above the threshold for a hyper-active season
/ percent of median ACE greater than or equal to 165 percent/.
The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season could be the ninth
out of the last 11 with above-average activity. Since the
current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 21 of 30
/about 70 percent/ seasons have had above-normal activity,
and only 5 /17 percent/ and 4 /14 percent/ have had near- and
below-normal activity, respectively, based on the 1951-2020
climatology. Also, 10 /almost half/ of the above-normal years
/thus 33 percent of the 30 years/ have been hyper-active.
Predictions of the location, number, timing, and intensity
of hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily
weather patterns which determine storm genesis locations and
steering patterns. These patterns are not predictable weeks or
months in advance. As a result, it is not possible to reliably
predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes in a
seasonal outlook, or whether a given locality will be impacted
by a tropical storm or hurricane this season.

2. Science behind the Outlook NOAAs North Atlantic Hurricane
Season Outlooks are based on predictions of the main atmospheric
and oceanic factors, and their associated conditions known
to influence seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. These
predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis,
research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools,
and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come
from the NOAA Climate Forecast System /CFS/, NOAA Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Lab /GFDL/ HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the
North American Multi-Model Ensemble /NMME/, the United Kingdom
Met Office /UKMET/ GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasting /ECMWF/ Seas5 model. ENSO
forecasts are also provided from the NMME dynamical models
contained in the suite of Nino 3.4 SST forecasts, which is
compiled by NOAAs CPC.NOAAs 2025 North Atlantic hurricane
season outlook reflects the expectation of the following
atmospheric and oceanic factors during August-October /ASO/,
as follows:
 1/ The dominant factor this season is expected to be the
 continuation of the high-activity era for Atlantic
hurricanes, which began in 1995 in association with a
transition to the warm phase of the AMV. The recently observed
and predicted atmospheric conditions for ASO 2025 reflect the
warm AMV phase, and with several factors conducive for higher
levels of activity such as weaker trade winds and warmer SSTs
across much of the MDR, a more conducive African easterly jet,
weaker vertical wind shear, and a conducive shift to the West
African monsoon. When the oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
considered as a whole, the variability is being more commonly
referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability /AMV/ in recent
literature. The SSTs in the MDR /North Atlantic/ are currently
warmer than normal, but not at record high levels as seen in
2024. Trade winds are slightly weaker than average. Upper-level
divergence over Western Africa is near normal. Predictions
of 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear are for weaker than normal
vertical wind shear, with some tools indicating values in the
lower third of historical values relative to the 1991-2020
model history in absolute values.  Vertical wind shear is
one of the most important factors determining the level of
seasonal activity with lower- /higher-/ than-normal vertical
wind shear associated with higher- /lower-/ amounts of activity.
 2/ The most recent NOAA ENSO probability forecast indicates
 a 54 percent chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will
continue through the hurricane season, and a 33 percent chance
that La Nina conditions could be in place during the peak
months /ASO/ of the season. The ENSO outlook this year shows
lower confidence than at the same point in 2024, and forecasts
of ENSO-neutral do typically have lower skill than forecasts
of El Nino or La Nina events.  a. ENSO-neutral favored As of
May 8, 2025, an ENSO-neutral state is indicated. The weekly
SSTs are currently slightly below average across much of
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the SST index
for the Nino 3.4 region is -0.1deg C. The Nino 3.4 index has
shown no significant trend since March of 2025. The wind and
outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific
are also reflecting a breakdown of atmospheric response to
last winters forcings, which resembled La Nina, though the
Oceanic Nino Index /ONI/ values did not meet the threshold
for enough consecutive 3-month seasons.  Looking forward,
model-predicted SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region generally
indicate ENSO-neutral conditions throughout the hurricane
season. The dynamical model average indicates ENSO-neutral
through the late summer and autumn of 2025.  During ASO,
NOAAs Climate Forecast System /CFS/ and the North American
Multi-model Ensemble /NMME/ are predicting ENSO-neutral. The
CFS and NMME predict below-normal vertical wind shear over the
MDR. This is likely associated with the model predictions of
high-activity era conditions and a non-interfering ENSO-neutral.
The official NOAA ENSO outlook from May of 2025 indicates about
a 54 percent chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue
through the hurricane season, and a 33 percent chance that La
Nina conditions could be in place during the peak months /ASO/
of the season. The ENSO outlook this year shows lower confidence
than at the same point in 2024, and forecasts of ENSO-neutral
do typically have lower skill than forecasts of El Nino or La
Nina events.  Therefore, the current hurricane season outlook
reflects the expectation that the ENSO-neutral conditions will
not interfere with the ongoing set of conditions associated
with the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes
/discussed below/. Note that if a La Nina event occurs, it
would reinforce the high-activity era conditions.  For years
after a first-year La Nina winter, followed by ENSO-neutral
or La Nina, the averages for named storms, hurricanes, major
hurricanes, and ACE are 15, 8, 4, and 140, respectively. Those
values are very close to mid- points of the predicted ranges
for 2025, and are all above the average values for 1991-2020
which covers most of the high activity era. The average ACE
value during years following La Nina conditions is 140,
which is above the threshold for an above-normal season.
b. Predicted conditions within the MDR

SSTs are currently above-average across the MDR, with an
area-averaged anomaly during April of +0.2deg C, much lower than
the +1.22deg C value during 2024. Both the CFS and NMME models
predict above-average SSTs during ASO across much of the MDR,
though there are predicted pockets of near-normal and even
below-normal SSTs.  Among the NMME models used in the hybrid
outlook, the predicted values of MDR SST anomalies range from
- 0.06deg C to +0.31deg C, with the multi-model ensemble spatial
average being +0.25deg C. Even though most models tend to have
only modest skill in predicting the strength of the Atlantic SST
anomalies this far in advance, the current model predictions are
consistent with the ongoing warm phase of the AMV. SST anomalies
across the North Atlantic basin are currently broadly above
normal and predicted to stay above-normal at least through ASO.
Two inter-related atmospheric features, also related to the
warm phase of the AMO/AMV that are typically analyzed, are
anomalous winds at mid-levels /850-hPa, 700-hPa, and 600-hPa/
across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic and the
strength of the West African monsoon system. The 850-hPa
winds show westerly anomalies, indicative of weaker trade
winds but also a very strong high pressure system over the
northern Atlantic that could limit extratropical development
if it lingers. The outflow from the West African Monsoon, as
analyzed by 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly and divergent
wind, is showing a normal circulation. That signal has varied
significantly, though variance in that signal before the
core of the West African Monsoon season /July to September/
is common. The axis of heaviest rain and position of the
resultant African Easterly Jet /AEJ/ is forecast to be displaced
northward more than normal, which could be supportive of more
tropical storm and hurricane development. Should the West
African Monsoon be too intense and shifted too far northward,
this could result in disturbances entering the Atlantic over
SSTs that are prohibitively cold for tropical cyclogenesis
while also seeing increased chances for Saharan Air Layer
outbreaks that would further inhibit convective development.
c. Factors contributing to uncertainty Uncertainties in the 2025
outlook are rooted in a few factors. ENSO-neutral conditions
are the most likely outcome, but ENSO outlooks made in May
are highly uncertain and the odds are lower this year for
any one category than during the past few years. Should a La
Nina event emerge, total activity could be near the upper-end
of the forecast ranges.  Additionally, a large, northward
displacement in the West African Monsoon is thought to be a
contributing factor in the mid-peak-season lull during 2024,
and such displacement could also occur this year. Should
that northward displacement maximize during ASO and other
intraseasonal variability limit activity later in the season,
total activity would likely be near the lower end of the
forecast ranges.  NOAA FORECASTERS Climate Prediction Center
Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans@noaa.gov
Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang@noaa.gov Dr. Daniel
Harnos, Meteorologist, Daniel.Harnos@noaa.gov Lindsey Long,
Meteorologist, Lindsey.Long@noaa.gov

National Hurricane Center Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane
Specialist; Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov Dr. Chris Landsea,
Meteorologist; Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov Dr. Richard Pasch,
Senior Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch@noaa.gov

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Stanley
Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov
Dr. Hosmay Lopez, Oceanographer; Hosmay.Lopez@noaa.gov



$$