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FNAK79 PAFG 011507
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Tonclonukna...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
707 AM AKDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0730 AKDT on July 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A Bering Sea low pressure system is causing clouds and strong
southeast wind flow aloft over this fire area. Those winds could
enhance the upslope winds on the fire today given the eastern exposure.
Just a slight chance of a few showers moving off the Alaska Range in
the southeast flow aloft this afternoon. Otherwise expect a warming
and drying trend into the weekend. The lower atmosphere will become
more unstable Wednesday into the weekend supporting convective plume
development over the fire. Isolated thunderstorms are not expected
again in this area until Thursday into the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of a rain shower.
CWR.................5 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around noon AKDT.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around midnight AKDT.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East/upslope winds 3 to 6 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East around 5 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 1100 AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Light winds.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...MAIER
Requested by...C Magnuson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516825.3/AFG
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL camille.magnuson@alaska.gov