496
FNAK79 PAFG 140300
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Aggie Creek/Himalaya Creek Fires...Northern Forestry Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 PM AKDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on August 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The frontal boundary passed Tanana at about 5 PM and there has not
been any indication of gusty SW winds behind the front there. Model
guidance seems to have slowed down the frontal progression in the
complex terrain north of the Tanana Valley with light and variable
winds continuing until the frontal passage between 3-5 AM Thursday
with light SW winds behind the front. There also seems to be good
model agreement with the formation of an inversion by 9 PM this
evening and rain showers moving into the vicinity of the fires by 6
AM Thursday. WSW winds and rain showers continue through the day on
Thursday with much more humid conditions and shallower mixing
heights expected. Rain chances continue through Saturday before a
drying trend early next week.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain.
CWR.................25 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest late.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 5 mph becoming southwest around 5
mph late.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around 2030 AKDT.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain likely.
CWR.................48 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest early then becoming west around 5 mph
in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 0800 AKDT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain likely.
CWR.................51 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph
                    overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest around 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around 2000 AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Cloudy with chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 50s. West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Light
winds.

$$
Forecaster...KUTTA
Requested by...Jim Jaminet
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519462.7/AFG
.DELDT 08/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL liz.wallace@alaska.gov,torrey.short@alaska.gov,jimjaminet@gmail.com