085
FXAK69 PAFG 112259
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend continues today over most of Northern Alaska with
highs reaching near/above normal. Scattered showers and isolated
storms are expected from the Western AK Range to Tanana with a
slight chance for a storm near Bettles. Otherwise, a much larger
thunderstorm day is expected on Friday with the possibility that
it`s the most active lightning day of the year so far. This
weekend, we will begin to see a pattern change as chinook flow
brings strong winds through the Alaska Range Passes. Fire weather
concerns exist in Isabel Pass and Delta Junction Saturday and
Sunday afternoon. The pattern does become a bit more wet,
especially away from the Southern Interior as an abundant amount
of moisture moves in from the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm and dry conditions today with showers with isolated storms,
  especially in the Alaska Range and near Tanana/Bettles.

- More abundant storms tomorrow across the area. Any storm can
  come with small hail, gusty wind, lightning and heavy rain.

- Near Red Flag conditions in the Yukon Flats this afternoon
  through Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch for this weekend
  in Delta and Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warm and dry with scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly
  near or just east of McGrath, towards the Western AK Range and
  points north today and tomorrow.
     - A few of these thunderstorms could produce small hail,
        gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- Gusty southwest winds up to 45 mph from the Bering Strait
  northward today will weaken tomorrow.

- Warm again on Saturday with the warmest temperatures of the year
  likely in many spots. Expect low to mid 70s in the Interior
  with 50s and 60s along the coast.

- More widespread showers arrive in the Interior Sunday afternoon
  as a front moves in from the southeast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Warm weather today with highs near or above seasonal norms. A
  weak front moves through tomorrow, cooling temperatures by a few
  degrees, otherwise, expect mild temps to continue in the Brooks
  Range and Arctic Plain through the weekend with near average
  temperatures along the coast.

- Isolated to scattered showers will be possible in the Brooks
  Range today and Friday. On Friday a couple of thunderstorms are
  possible in the Eastern Brooks Range from Atigun Pass to the
  AlCan border.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The main story will be thunderstorms today and tomorrow as a front
crosses Northern Alaska from west to east. Otherwise, the pattern
flips giving us chinook flow this weekend with the potential for
moderate rain for portions of the Interior and Brooks Range next
week.

Looking aloft at 500mb, there is predominantly west/southwest flow
across Northern Alaska today. This is coming from a shortwave
trough over the Chukotsk Peninsula, a 566 decameter high over St.
Paul Island and a 567 decameter high over Western Canada. As we
progress through tomorrow, the highs remain nearly stationary, but
the shortwave trough moves over the Interior and Brooks Range.
This will spark scattered to widespread thunderstorms over the
Central/Eastern Interior. Current models and model soundings are
showing several signs that these thunderstorms may be relatively
strong. These factors include mid level dry air, steep low to mid
level lapse rates at 8C-10C/km, nearly 500 J/Kg of CAPE and a
shortwave trough to provide lift. Ideally for strong thunderstorms
we would need more CAPE, a more saturated surface and taller swath
of steep lapse rates. However, this atmosphere is capable of
producing hail around 1/2" or less, and strong outflow wind
gusts. If any storms can become organized along the trough, there
can be 3/4" hail, but any larger than that is not supported.

Nonetheless, the trough continues to drift north and east, out of
Alaska by Saturday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are left in
its wake on Saturday. As this happens, a 537 decameter low will
move northward over the Alaska Peninsula. For the most part, the
wind and rain will stay south of the Western Interior until
Sunday, but a few showers are possible from Hooper Bay to Galena.
On Sunday the main push of moisture from this low arrives in the
Interior with showers blossoming during the afternoon. The bulk of
the showers will be in the Northern/Eastern Interior, southern AK
Range, and Brooks Range while the Southern Interior gets chinook
flow. Rain showers will continue in these locations through early
next week with the heaviest being in the Brooks Range. In the
Southern Interior, given the chinook flow, south wind gusts will
increase to around 45 mph in Isabel/Windy Pass. Min RHs will be as
low as 15% to 20% Saturday afternoon in Isabel Pass and Delta
Junction resulting in possible Red Flag conditions. After the
initial front passes through Saturday evening, there will be a
lull in the winds Saturday night before a ramp up again on Sunday.
These winds look stronger, potentially up to 60 mph. There is an
abundance of moisture moving from south to north which will try to
push through the AK Range Passes, so higher RHs are possible on
Sunday resulting in near Red Flag conditions again. Elsewhere,
there aren`t major concerns for fire weather and with the increase
in moisture moving into Northern Alaska, this should keep the
fire season at bay for now. The rain for early next week will be
spoken about more in the extended discussion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near Red Flag conditions in the Yukon Flats this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low 70s with
southwest wind gusts around 15 to 20 mph and min RHs as low as 15%
to 20%. The other area of concern is Isabel Pass and Delta
Junction Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Southerly chinook winds
increase to 45 mph Saturday afternoon and 60 mph Sunday afternoon.
RHs will be as low as 15 to 20% Saturday afternoon and 30% Sunday
afternoon. A Red Flag Warning may be warranted for Saturday and
potentially Sunday. The Western Interior will have dry and warm
conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near
the Western AK Range and north to Tanana and potentially Bettles.
The Central and Eastern Interior will have more robust
thunderstorm activity on Friday as a shortwave moves across the
area from the afternoon through the night. Most of the area is
covered by isolated to scattered thunderstorms with widespread
storms expected from the White Mountains to Eagle/Chicken. This
may end up being the largest lightning day of the year so far.
Moving into Sunday afternoon and early next week, a wetter
pattern is expected but with chinook flow, the southern Interior
may remain predominantly dry while most other spots receive rain,
potentially heavy wetting rain from the Eastern Interior to the
Brooks Range as well as the Western Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No updates since the previous discussion. Unless there is a
significant change, the next update for the rivers will come on
Friday 6/12/26.

Satellite imagery indicates the Sag River has broken up close to
the mouth with no updates on the Kuparuk given the lack of clear
satellite imagery. The Colville has broken up near Nuiqsut and
potentially farther downstream but there are 2 ice jams at
Horseshoe Bend and Ocean Point. Even with the ice jams, water has
remained relatively low.

Heading into the end of the week/weekend, we`ll see temperatures
rise into the 50s/60s in the Brooks Range and 40s/50s on the North
Slope. Low temperatures will be above freezing with the Brooks
Range only dropping into the 40s while the North Slope remains in
the 30s. The increase in temperatures along with the recent
snowfall may result in rapid river rises by this weekend but there
is high uncertainty in any potential flooding impacts. On top of
this, we are also monitoring the potential for heavy rain in the
Brooks Range from Sunday night through Tuesday. There is a
potential for over 1 inch of rain across a wide area.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Next week, the overall pattern is expected to transition toward
increasing ridging across mainland Alaska as a weakening low
pressure system near the Aleutians interacts with an Arctic low
tracking across the northwest Arctic coast. Moisture wrapping around
the departing low and periodic disturbances moving through the flow
will maintain unsettled conditions through Tuesday with the greatest
shower coverage focused across the Northern and Eastern Interior,
Brooks Range, and portions of the North Slope. Recent guidance
has trended wetter across portions of the Eastern Interior,
however considerable uncertainty remains regarding how far the
deeper moisture spreads and where the heaviest rainfall ultimately
develops. Thunderstorm potential appears limited due to
widespread cloud cover and modest instability, though an isolated
storm near the Alcan border cannot be ruled out.

By midweek, strengthening high pressure building in the Bering Sea
and western Canada is expected to become the dominant weather
feature across much of the state. This should promote a gradual
drying trend, decreasing shower coverage, and more stable conditions
across the state. However, lingering moisture and weak disturbances
may continue to support scattered showers across portions of the YK
Delta, Brooks Range, and North Slope. Model guidance remains in good
agreement regarding the development of the ridge, resulting in
moderate confidence in the overall trend towards drier weather.
Uncertainty remains in the strength and placement of the ridge axis
and any embedded shortwaves moving around it, which will ultimately
determine how quickly precipitation diminishes and whether isolated
thunderstorms can redevelop over higher terrain later in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Bianco
Cruz - Extended Discussion