474
FXAK69 PAFG 282009
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1209 PM AKDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming and drying trend across the Interior lasts into next week.
A low approaches the West Coast Sunday night and will bring rain
to areas from the Seward Peninsula south and the Nulato Hills
west. Areas of low clouds and fog persist across the Central and
Eastern Arctic Coast. Widely scattered thunderstorms expected this
afternoon across the Brooks Range and Fortymile Country.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mostly sunny across the majority of the Interior through the
  weekend.
- The exception will be the in the Southeastern Interior from the
   Fortymile Country south through the Upper Tanana Valley to the
   Eastern Alaska Range where showery conditions return this
   afternoon and last into Tuesday. Showers will be heavy at times
   with potentially an inch or more of rain falling along the
   Eastern Alaska Range due to upslope flow and around half an
   inch possible elsewhere.

- Temperatures slowly increase through mid week with highs in the
  70s expected across most Interior valleys reach near 80 Tuesday.

- Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected in the
  Fortymile Country and along the southern slopes of the Brooks
  Range this afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers linger today in the Eastern Norton Sound and are
  expected to diminish this evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon from Huslia south
  through the Middle Tanana Valley.

- Sunday sees a low move into the Bering Sea bringing another
  round of rain to the West Coast and Western Interior from the
  Seward Peninsula south and from the Nulato Hills west. These
  rains will be heaviest Monday, but lighter showers may persist
  through mid week.

- Southerly winds along the coast increase as the low approaches
  Saturday night. Sustained values of 20 to 25 mph expected for
  most areas in Bering Sea through the Bering Strait. Winds shift
  more easterly late Monday around 10 to 20 mph through the Norton
  and Kotzebue Sounds..

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and fog continue along the Eastern Arctic Coast.
  Easterly winds weaken late Saturday allowing foggy conditions to
  improve along the Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range continue through
  the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 552 dam upper level low sits over the Gulf of Alaska as a 560
dam upper level high builds into northeast Alaska today. The high
will slowly strengthen through the week reaching 572 dam
Wednesday. Lows and areas of enhanced vorticity rotate through the
Gulf low and into the Southeastern Interior providing the support
for showers in the Southeastern Interior and isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range
most days. As the high builds we`ll see gradual increases in
temperature with highs in most Interior Valleys reach near 80
Tuesday and lasting through much of the rest of the week.

A small 553 dam upper level low also currently sits over the
Eastern Norton Sound and is providing support for isolated
thunderstorms in the Western Interior today. This low will fill in
through Sunday night until another low moves into the Central
Bering Sea early Monday. This will stall south of St. Lawrence
Island as it pushes against the building ridge in the Interior and
will provide widespread rain showers to the West Coast from the
Seward Peninsula south and from the Nulato Hills west. This
stalled low will elongate into a more broad trough as the next
system moves into it Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Most of the Interior will see warming and drying through midweek.
The exception to this will be in the Southeast Interior from the
Fortymile Country to the eastern Alaska Range where cloudy,
showery conditions are expected through Tuesday. Wetting rains are
still likely under this wetter regime. Interior temperature in the
drier areas will warm to near 80 by midweek in most valley
locations with minimum relative humidity values falling into the
30s. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along elevated
terrain in the White Mountains, Brooks Range, and Alaska Range
Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Additional storms are possible
Saturday afternoon from Huslia south through the Middle Yukon
Valley and into the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Winds will be
generally light across the Interior. Monday will see a low
approach the West Coast that will bring wetting rains from the
Seward Peninsula south and from the Nulato Hills west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns along the rivers. Higher rivers will continue to
gradually drop. Rain in the southeastern Interior will lead to
some slight rises in rivers there, but no impacts are expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Model confidence greatly diminishes in the extended forecast
period regarding all of the finer details. The overall pattern of
an upper level high over northeastern Alaska, upper level low in
the Gulf of Alaska, and the more broad trough over the Bering Sea
will still hold with warmer, drier weather in the Interior and
some showers lingering along the West Coast, but models begin to
diverge wildly in how they want to move these main 3 pieces
relative to each other and relative to other lows moving through
the pattern. The most impactful change that we are looking for
will be strong shortwaves flowing through the pattern and moving
east across the Interior causing a large outbreak of
thunderstorms. There are a few models that are indicating this
sort of feature Thursday through Saturday, but there are many
disagreements between models so determining timing or strength
with much confidence is impossible at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Stokes