508
FXAK69 PAFG 142125
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
125 PM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and dry today over most of Northern Alaska. In the Interior,
expect windiest conditions to be in the higher terrain. Stratus,
areas of fog and flurries should be expected along the North Slope
with breezy conditions at times. The West Coast will be largely
dry with increasing east-northeast winds.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Breezy and warm today, wind gusts to 35 mph in the higher
  terrain and 30 mph in the valleys.

- Light rain showers develop in Southeast Alaska Thursday morning
  and traverse northwest to the Central Interior by the evening.
-There will be a lot of dry air in place, so wetting rains are
   not expected, and any rain will be very light.

- Gradually increasing temperatures through next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and dry with breezy conditions today.

- Gradually warming temps through the end of the week, then
  remaining seasonably mild near or just above normal.

- A few showers possible Friday afternoon and Saturday, though
  very dry air at the surface keeps most of the area dry.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Relatively benign weather, but there will be breaks with
  sunshine today and tomorrow!

- Otherwise, temperatures remain near normal with areas of
  stratus, fog and flurries at times.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 1027 mb high over the Northwest Territories is keeping Northern
Alaska dry and sunny. There is a 982 mb low south of Kodiak Island
which models are handling very poorly and placing over the Alaska
Peninsula nearly 200 miles to the southwest of its actual center.
There is another 990 mb low over the Western Bering which is
about 100 farther west than currently modeled. Nonetheless, models
do bring this low west later today, and bring the low in the Gulf
farther northeast which would trend to their current positions.
There shouldn`t be any impact to Northern Alaska, even with these
lows in different positions than what the models have, but it is
interesting to note and may lead to further ambiguity in the long
term.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy and dry today with min RHs dropping as low as 20-25% in the
Middle Tanana Valley and parts of the Western Interior Valleys.
East-northeast wind gusts will be up to 35 mph in the higher
terrain this afternoon and tonight, and up to 30 mph in the
valleys across the Interior. Wind gusts weaken tomorrow throughout
the day, but there may still be gusts to 25 mph in the valleys
and up to 30 in the hills, especially early in the afternoon. Min
RHs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 20% range. A couple of showers
are possible in the Southeast Interior Thursday AM, then the
Central Interior during the afternoon but wetting rains are not
expected since it will be so dry. Winds go nearly calm overnight
with good RH recovery. Dry and warming weather persists into this
weekend with high temperatures getting into the mid and upper 60s
by Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River is open from Tanana to downstream of Mountain
Village as of Tuesday afternoon. Ice runs from upstream of Tanana
continue as ice degrades between Beaver and Rampart. Heavy ice
runs are still being seen below Kaltag. Water levels remain low
and no flooding is anticipated. Updates from today`s River Watch
flights will be available this eve.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended forecast looks to remain quiet in the Interior.
There is some uncertainty in the forecast for next week, but we
are leaning on the warmer and drier side due to an increasing
potential for a Canadian ridge by the middle/end of next week.
The ensembles are hinting at more ridging than the deterministic
models which are showing troughing out west, extending inland.
Something of note is, deterministic models have been trying to
cool down the extended (days 4-7+) overall, for the last few
weeks. This could be due to us getting out of winter and the
adjustment to more "summer-like" weather. Nonetheless, we will be
monitoring the extended and updating as necessary for increased
ridging or troughing which will either keep us warmer and drier,
or cooler and wetter.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$