386
FXAK69 PAFG 272254
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
254 PM AKDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend establishes itself across the
Interior into next week. Showery conditions return for the
Southeastern Interior Saturday and will last into next week.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected in the
Fortymile Country and along the Brooks Range through the weekend.
Along the West Coast and Western Interior showers begin to fade
this evening before returning Sunday from the Seward Peninsula
south to the YK Delta.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mostly sunny across the majority of the Interior through the
  weekend.
- The exception will be the in the Southeastern Interior from the
   Fortymile Country south through the Upper Tanana Valley to the
   Eastern Alaska Range where showery conditions return Saturday
   and Sunday. Showers will be heavy at times with potentially an
   inch or more of rain falling along the Eastern Alaska Range due
   to upslope flow.

- Temperatures slowly increase this weekend with highs in the 70s
  expected across most Interior valleys.

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms expected in the Fortymile
  Country and widely scattered storms expected along the southern
  slopes of the Brooks Range this afternoon. Additional storms
  expected Saturday afternoon in the same area with slightly
  higher potential.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers in the Western Interior diminish this afternoon and
  disperse tonight. Some light showers may persist in the Western
  Interior and Brooks Range Saturday.

- Sunday sees a low move into the Bering Sea bringing another
  round of rain to the West Coast and Western Interior from the
  Seward Peninsula south.

- Southerly winds along the coast increase as the low approaches
  the coast Saturday night. Sustained values of 20 to 25 mph
  expected for most areas in Bering Sea through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and fog continue along the Eastern Arctic Coast.
  Easterly winds weaken late Saturday allowing foggy conditions to
  improve along the Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range continue through
  the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 561 dam upper level high sits over the high Arctic and a 547 dam
upper level low rests in the western Gulf of Alaska. A 552 dam
upper level high sits over the Nulato Hills and is providing
support for continuing showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
Western Interior today. A weak pressure gradient across the state
is leading to generally weak winds across most of the Interior.
Pressure builds across the Interior through Saturday as a ridge
begins to re-establish itself over the Interior. This ridge will
be weak and allow easterly waves to bring rain and thunderstorms
to the Southeastern Interior through the weekend and into early
next week. With the building ridge a slight warming and drying
trend is expected into next week. Saturday night a low moves
towards the West Coast and stalls providing rain to from the
Seward Peninsula south and increasing coastal winds. This stalled
low becomes a more broad trough over the Bering Strait as another
low rotates through the pattern. Model confidence begins to falter
quickly as this trough and the growing ridge interact, but most
likely the ridge will hold over the Interior as the lows
stretching the trough move through the pattern keeping the West
Coast showery through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming and drying trend expected across most of the Interior
through the weekend and into next week. Active fires are likely to
see increased fire behavior as relative humidity falls into the
low 30s across many valleys. Winds will generally be light and
terrain driven with temperatures in the 70s. Smoke/Haze will
likely become an issue again in the coming days. Thunderstorms
will be focused over the Brooks Range down into the Yukon Uplands
through Sunday. High surface pressure will build into the Western
Interior Saturday night ahead of an approaching low in the Bering
Sea. A north-northeast storm motion will develop over the eastern
Interior Sunday allowing showers and thunderstorms from the Yukon
Uplands to spread down into the Eastern Alaska Range Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns along the rivers. Higher rivers will continue to
gradually drop. Rain in the southeastern Interior will lead to
some slight rises in rivers there, but no impacts are expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ridging continues to build over the Interior. The warming and
drying trend is expected to continue through most of the week. A
low in the Gulf of Alaska will send shortwaves through the pattern
causing increased showers in the Southeastern Interior and making
isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible most days. Fire behavior
is expected to increase with haze and smoke redeveloping over
parts of the Interior by the end of next week, but possibly sooner
nearer to fires.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Stokes