440
FXAK69 PAFG 101450
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
650 AM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of recent coastal storm have weakened considerably
and are now over the Arctic Ocean east of Utqiagvik. A warm front
will bring areas of rain, snow, and some mixed precipitation, as
well as east winds to the Bering Sea coast beginning late this
morning and early this afternoon. This will result in low water
levels in coastal areas. The next sigificant storm will come in
the form of what is currently Typhoon Halong. As the former-
typhoon enters the Bering, it will bring strong wind gusts, in
some cases potentially upwards of 80 mph, to St. Lawrence Island
and the YK Delta, with widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts
elsewhere, including the northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue
Sound. Potential flooding for parts of the Bering Sea coast may be
major if not record- reaking. Tothe east, much of the Interior
will see breezy conditions with rain in valleys and mixed rain and
snow and snow over higher terrain. Blowing snow and low
visibility is likely across the eastern North Slope Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered rain and snow showers with snow levels of ~700 to
  1000ft are ongoing this morning. Any remaining rain showers
  will transition to snow showers for most areas in the
  evening/overnight.

- Temperatures will be near normal (mid 30s to low 40s) the next
  couple days, with sunny conditions tomorrow.

- A coastal storm arrives Sunday with warming temperatures, rain
  showers, and areas of gusty winds (including gap winds through
  the AK Range passes) in the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

The Main Story:

Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches have been issued for
Sunday to Monday storm.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong will make its way into the Bering
Sea on Saturday. This storm will be very strong and may be the
strongest storm to hit the West Coast since Ex-Typhoon Merbok with
the potential for historic water level rises in some spots.
Possible impacts consist of major coastal flooding and erosion and
power outages with south wind gusts up to 60 to 80 mph or
stronger Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Otherwise, prior to the storm, there is some calmer weather
  today consisting of isolated rain showers and some sunshine.

- Clouds increase today, and rain develops in St. Lawrence Island
  and YK Delta during the afternoon and moves north overnight.
  Offshore winds gusting 30 to 50 mph are likely along the coast
  this afternoon through Saturday morning. A few snow showers are
  possible in the higher terrain above 1000ft.

- The remnant of Typhoon Halong arrives and moves almost directly
  over St. Matthew Island Saturday night as a strong storm. This
  is when the Yukon Delta begins to see its worst impacts.

- Very strong south winds move north into the Seward Peninsula by
  Sunday morning, and this is when the Bering Strait region
  begins to see their worst impacts. Water levels will rise
  through the day on Sunday and may be very high overnight Sunday
  into Monday morning.

- There is still some uncertainty with exact strength and track of
  the storm, but it is shaping up to be a major storm with severe
  impacts.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Coastal Flood Watches Issued for the next storm Sunday-Monday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph continue for the eastern
  half of the Arctic Coast through this morning. Wind gusts will
  strengthen for Kaktovik to around 50 mph later this morning and
  last through Saturday morning. Light snow may result in blowing
  snow and low visibility at times through Saturday morning along
  the Eastern Arctic Coast.

- Light snow in Atigun Pass continues with gusty winds at times
  through Saturday morning.

- The next storm, the remnants of Typhoon Halong, arrives in the
  Bering on Saturday and moves towards the Bering Strait on
  Sunday.

- Significant impacts are possible once again with erosion and
  coastal flooding being a concern once again. It is too early to
  give specific impacts, but it could be a repeat of the storm we
  just had.

- Heavy snow in the Brooks Range looks likely as well Sunday-Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The remnants of the recent coastal storm are now a very weak low
or open wave of around 1000 mb well northeast of Alaska but are
still helping to drive northwest to west winds across the eastern
two-thirds or so of the North Slope. As they exit the area, winds
will fall off and any residual snow or rain will diminish through
the day Friday and Saturday. A large 965 mb low over the far
western Bering Sea will remain far from the Alaska coast until
mid-next week, but a warm front extending well east from it will
bring strong east to southeast winds of upwards of 40 mph to the
northeastern Bering Sea as it gradually shifts from south to
north. A band of rain and snow will also shift north with the
front, with mostly rain south of the Bering Strait and mostly snow
north of the Strait, given a pre-existing cold airmass over the
northernmost parts of Alaska.

Typhoon Halong, which is currently over the Western Pacific, will
rocket to the north very quickly as it gets caught in the
southerly jet flow and undergo extratropical transition into what
will be our next major storm. As it enters the Bering Sea, this
storm will intensify into a 940s to around 950 mb low. The storm
will ramp up winds across the eastern Bering Sea to over 60 mph,
with gusts upwards of 80 mph possible over the YK Delta and St.
Lawrence Island, and gusts of 70 possible across much of the
southern coast of the Seward Peninsula. This will pose a threat of
severe coastal flooding to numerous areas rivaling or exceeding
Ex- Typhoon Merbok. The storm will track north of the Bering
Strait, Sunday afternoon / evening. While weaker than over the
Bering Sea, winds will still be very strong, with sustained winds
over 40 mph gusting to 60 or higher in Kotzebue Sound and along
the eastern Chukchi Sea coast. Recent model runs have tried to
pull the track slightly further east, which would cause the low-
pressure center to clip the Seward Peninsula rather than pass
cleanly through the Strait, which could further affect the
magnitude of winds and water rises. After passing into the
Arctic, it will shift east and move out of the area. Additional
storms are likely to follow.

&&

...EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Thursday.

A strong low pressure system around 964mb by 4 AM Monday (remnants
of Typhoon Halong) will continue its progression northeast out of
the Bering Sea into the Chuckchi and Beaufort Seas on Monday.
Strongest winds will shift north over the Seward Peninsula and
through the Brooks Range onto the North Slope and Arctic Coast.
During this timeframe, the strong S/SW winds initially along the
West Coast will shift to being out of the W/SW as they lift north to
being along the Arctic Coast by late Monday into Tuesday. Scattered
to widespread rain and snow showers will continue across Northern
Alaska during this timeframe.

Another 950mb low will be making its way towards the Y-K Delta for
Tuesday and Wednesday with an extended cold front bringing more rain
to the West Coast and western North Slope. Gusty south/southwesterly
winds along the Y-K Delta and southern Seward Peninsula are also
expected to build in for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

We are expecting another coastal storm to impact Western Alaska
heading into Sunday and Monday, with additional details to come into
focus over the coming days. The overall model consensus supports the
remnants of Typhoon Halong moving east off the coast of Japan into
the Pacific, before sharply turning north into the Bering Sea as it
is works up along the western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure
in the Gulf of Alaska. At this time, water levels and wind speeds
look to be higher south of the Bering Strait than they were during
the October 8th storm. Major coastal flooding is possible. Coastal
Flood Watches have been issued and contain possible impact
information. Additionally, a secondary coastal storm is looking
increasingly likely to setup behind this Sunday/Monday storm for
Tuesday and Wednesday, which could lead to another round of coastal
flooding impacts across Western Alaska. Stay tuned.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801-815>818-824.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ802-803.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ825-827-847-849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820>824.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820-822.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ821.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ825-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-816-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

DS
Extended/Coastal Hazards: McKay