018
FXAK69 PAFG 151444
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
544 AM AKST Sun Feb 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
With the next front quickly moving into the Southern Interior this
morning, we will see another round of snow showers from the
Western Interior to the Tanana Valley. We should expect another 3
to 6 inches from this front today. With the showery nature of this
snowfall, there could be a large spread of accumulations over
short distances. We could see a brief period of strong winds in
the Upper Kuskokwim and Tanana Valleys this afternoon. Another
very strong low will move into the Gulf of Anadyr Monday morning.
This will bring heavy snow and strong winds to the west coast.
Coastal locations from the Seward Peninsula and south, will most
likely see blizzard conditions. This front will move east into
the Interior into the middle of the week. Bringing more moderate
to heavy snowfall with it. Exact locations and amounts of the
heaviest snowfall still is uncertain.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Gusty winds are expected today with peak gusts to 50 mph around
  Eagle Summit, 40 mph in the terrain above 1000ft and 30 mph in
  Fairbanks. Blowing snow is possible, mostly in the hills.

- Snow moves back in this morning and will be light/fluffy
  through the afternoon before ending overnight. Scattered snow
  showers may linger into Monday. Additional snowfall
  accumulations around 2 to 4 inches south/west of the White Mtns.

- A dry break for most of Monday (outside of a snow shower),
  temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s below zero in the valleys
  Monday morning and Monday night.

- Snow moves back in Tuesday morning and continues with periods of
  snow likely through at least Wednesday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A break in snow and wind this morning through Monday morning,
  then a strong front brings heavy snow and strong wind gusts (60+
  mph possible along the coast) Monday morning into Tuesday
  morning.
- Blizzard conditions are likely for much of the coastline.
- Additional snow accumulations greater than 9 inches possible
   along the coast. The highest accumulations looks to be on the
   Southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island.

- Periods of snow and gusty winds continue through Wednesday in
  most spots. Strong winds and moderate to heavy snow is likely
  from Kotzebue Sound to Point Hope Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday.

- Drier and colder weather begins to settle into the region
  towards the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-  Sunday and Monday is mostly quiet and cold with more active
   weather arriving Monday night into Tuesday.

- Light snow is expected to move onto the Western Brooks Range and
  Northwest Arctic Coastline Tuesday morning bringing a fresh 2 to
  4 inches of blowable snow.

- Strong east/southeast winds expected for most of the day Tuesday
  with blizzard conditions possible once again in Point Lay and
  Point Hope.
- Point Hope could see wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph Tuesday and
   begin to weaken Wednesday morning.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A cold front is slowly moving into the Upper Kuskokwim and Tanana
Valley as it`s accompanying low pressure center is moving east.
This front will briefly stall through the day allowing for
continued snow showers under it. We could see widespread 3 to 6
inches of additional snow underneath the front. Winds in the
dendritic growth zone we`re an issue yesterday resulting in low
snow ratios. The winds today aloft will be stronger, so it reasons
to believe the ratios will be affected similar to yesterday.
Strong cold air advection behind this front could keep light snow
showers going into monday even if the cold front is out of the
area. These showers will be light and very little accumulations
would accompany them.

We turn our attention to the next system as it begins to move into
the Gulf of Anadyr by Monday morning. This low is expected to be
around 980 mb. A 1040 mb high pressure will build over the Eastern
Brooks Range Monday night. This will create a sizable pressure
gradient allowing for strong winds along the West Coast. Model
guidance has been trending to a wetter and windier solution along
warm front as it moves across the West Coast. There is the
potential to see winds up of 60+ mph on St. Lawrence Island, the
Southern Seward Peninsula, and Hooper Bay. These strong winds will
then progress to Kotzebue sound Tuesday morning. Snow
accumulation along this front continue to increase with newer
model runs. The 25th and 50th percentile ensemble spread is
shrinking, which is giving more confidence for heavy snowfall
across the region. St. Lawrence Island and the Southern Seward
Peninsula will likely see heavy snowfall of 9+ inches.

This front will move east Tuesday night moving the snowfall
potential with it. As the front crosses into the Interior it will
begin to fall apart. A reinforcing 500 mb shortwave behind the
front could help to restrengthen the frontal boundary. Of course
this requires the shortwave to catch up with the front, and not
every model agrees with this solution, but it is possible at this
time. If this solution does pan out we could see moderate to heavy
snowfall in the Eastern Interior. With how much uncertainty there
is, we are only expecting light to moderate snowfall in the
Eastern Interior Wednesday and Thursday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The start of the extended period on Wednesday, we are seeing the
snowfall continuing in the Central and Eastern Interior. Thursday
will begin our transition from a stormy week to a much quieter
weekend. Ridging from the North Pacific High will build in the
Bering Sea. This will allow for northerly flow aloft across
Northern Alaska, returning colder and drier arctic into Northern
Alaska. Temperatures aloft over the weekend supports 40 below zero
across the Interior Valleys. Temperatures will be impacted by a
diurnal trend keeping the coldest temperatures overnight, and
allowing for some relief during the day.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834-838>847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-854-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Dennis