435
FXAK69 PAFG 222258
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 PM AKST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter conditions expected through Saturday morning as high
pressure builds across the state. Stratus and fog over the West
Coast and Western Interior are eroding away as drier air moves in
from the northwest. The quiet conditions are short-lived though as
another series of fronts take aim at the West Coast this weekend.
The next frontal system will bring mixed precipitation to the
West coast beginning Saturday night before bringing snow as it
spreads into the Interior Sunday and Sunday night. Ice
accumulations up to a tenth of an inch possible from the Bering
Strait, Norton Sound, lower Yukon Valley, and the Y-K Delta. Snow
amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible across most of the forecast
area south of the Brooks Range including Fairbanks through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry, mild, and partly cloudy conditions expected this afternoon
  and Saturday.

- Breezy winds beginning Saturday evening at Eagle and Eagle
  Summit, and through Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction
  beginning Sunday. Gusts are expected to remain 40 mph or less.

- A front moving across the Interior late Sunday through Tuesday
  morning will bring the next chance for significant snowfall.
  Snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches possible including for
  Fairbanks. High confidence that the precipitation type remains
  all snow for the central and eastern Interior with this system.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Quieter and colder conditions expected through the weekend.
  Temperatures mostly in the single digits above and below zero.

- Light snow across all areas south of Utqiagvik Saturday through
  Monday. Snow amounts generally around 2 inches, except up to 6
  inches in the Western Brooks Range.

- Southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph in the central Brooks
  Range passes Sunday, accompanied by areas of blowing snow.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than a mile at times.

- Stronger north winds and blowing snow through Brooks Range
  Passes beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Drier conditions expected today. Temperatures remain well above
  normal, with many areas near the coast seeing high temperatures
  near or above freezing through the weekend.

- The next frontal system looks to bring significant rain, snow,
  and freezing rain to the West Coast beginning late Saturday and
  pushing into the Interior on Sunday. Widespread snow totals of 4 to
  8 inches. Highest snow amounts in favored upslope areas, including
  the Noatak Valley.

- Behind the fronts, strong northerly gales develop through the
  Bering Strait Sunday night through Monday night.

Strong upper level ridging centered over the southern Alaska
Peninsula drops south into the north Pacific this weekend as an
upper level low tracks northeast across the Western Bering Sea.
This low weakens into an open wave as it approaches the Bering
Strait Sunday and then pushes eastward across the Interior. A
stronger shortwave pushes east southeast across northern Chukotka
and the Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday.

At the surface, strong high pressure remains over northern Alaska.
Northwest flow aloft pushes drier air across the region,
resulting in drier and mild conditions through Saturday. The high
pressure weakens through the weekend as a low moves northeast
across the Western Bering pushing a front across the West Coast.
As the front moves inland, it will drop significant rain, snow,
and freezing rain to the West Coast late Saturday and pushing into
the Interior on Sunday. Widespread snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches expected across much of northern Alaska south of the Brooks
Range through early next week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The extended forecast continues to
feature the breakdown of the strong ridge over mainland Alaska.
By Monday, a reinforcing shortwave trough drops southeast out of
the high Arctic, pushing southeast across the Interior Monday into
Tuesday. A 1002 mb low moves to Norton Sound with a second front
moving to the West Coast. As these fronts march east across
northern Alaska, gale force winds develop through the Bering
Strait. Significant snow accompanies the fronts. Behind the fronts
high pressure builds back in with north to northwesterly flow
aloft. A few weak shortwaves may bring light snow to the northwest
Arctic at times. Expect strong inversions and near normal
temperatures in the Interior, and near normal temperatures
elsewhere.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820>822-824>826-830.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-810-811-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$