282
FXAK69 PAFG 222342
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly quiet and unimpactful conditions persist across
the area through Friday, then weather gets active for the weekend.
An Arctic trough will swing down Saturday across the North Slope
and into the Interior. This combined with abundant moisture from a
low in the Gulf of Alaska will spark widely scattered
thunderstorms across the eastern Interior Saturday and Sunday.
These storms will be nearly stationary and may produce heavy rain
at times. West winds will follow the trough across the Arctic
Coast Sunday through Tuesday while the West Coast remains dry with
mostly light winds.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low
 60s today increase into the mid to upper 60s Friday and to near
 70 this weekend for Interior valleys.

-Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening along
 elevated terrain in the White Mountains, Fortymile Country, and
 Northern Interior south of the Brooks Range. Thunderstorms
 possible in the Fortymile Country and near the Canadian border
 Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm risk increases for much of the
 Interior Saturday and Sunday.

-Showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday may produce very
 heavy rain. See Special Weather Statement for details.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs near 50 in the Western
 Interior today increase to the upper 50s by Friday and low 60s
 this weekend.

-Showers south of the Seward Peninsula will taper off this evening
 with mostly dry conditions expected through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-East Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph west of Point Barrow and 10 to
 20 mph east of Point Barrow ease overnight tonight.

-Winds become westerly behind the arctic front passage on Sunday.

-Areas of low stratus persist through the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A very broad trough
encompasses all of Alaska with very weak ridging within the trough
holding over the Interior from the east. A vertically stacked
1004 mb surface low in the Gulf of Alaska is wrapping moisture
into the Interior while a weak feature near Hooper Bay brings
light rain to the Yukon Delta and Southern Seward Peninsula coast.
This feature will weaken quickly through Friday, though low
pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will strengthen and continue to
wrap moisture into the Interior through the weekend. This will
bring the next weather concern to the area, with thunderstorms and
heavy showers likely over the Eastern Interior Saturday and
Sunday. Precipitable water is forecast to reach above the 90th
percentile for this time of year in Fairbanks with higher values
expected to the east. The atmosphere this weekend will be more
typical of late July than Memorial Day Weekend. On top of that,
Sunday will have very little wind aloft to move storms, so storms
that do form will likely park and drop abundant amounts of rain
over small areas. Expect high temperatures to be well into the 60s
with some 70s across the Interior both days. An arctic trough
dropping south with an associated front will stabilize conditions
from west to east by the end of Monday, and for most areas
overnight Sunday into Monday. See Special Weather Statement for
more details. The West Coast will remain mostly quiet, and the
North Slope will see west winds 15 to 20 mph behind the Arctic
Front on Sunday and Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the
White Mountains and Fortymile Uplands this afternoon and will
persist through the evening. On Friday the area of thunderstorms
expands to include the western Interior from Anvik to Galena and
southeast to the Alaska Range. This is as the thermal trough moves
over that region. Concern for lightning increases Saturday and
Sunday, though moisture also increases with widely scattered
thunderstorms expected from Northway to Chicken on Saturday and
across all of the Interior east of Fairbanks on Sunday. These will
be exceptionally wet, with precipitable water values at or above
90% of normal for this time of year. The atmosphere will be more
comparable to late July than what is normal for Memorial Day
weekend. Storms will be nearly stationary and may drop up to
0.75-1" of rain in the heaviest locations. Not everywhere will
receive rain, but spots that do will likely see a wetting rain.
Highs will reach near 70 in the usual warm valley locations with
minimum RHs remaining 30% or better, except from Hughes to Bettles
where precip is not expected and RH may dip down to 25% Saturday
or Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Degraded ice remains in place at the mouth of the
Yukon River. Snowmelt has begun in the Porcupine watershed in
Canada and water is starting to pool on the ice of the Porcupine
River. Between the border and the Yukon River ice is degrading
with some areas opening up. Creeks and streams in the eastern
Interior may rise rapidly under areas of heavy rain Saturday and
Sunday. Breakup has begun on the Kobuk River. The river broke up
at Shungnak on or around May 16th with no issues. Ice remains in
place at Ambler and water levels are slowly starting to rise as
the ice decays in place/

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Broad troughing will continue with
showery conditions across the Interior and mainly dry conditions
for the West Coast and North Slope. Temperatures will be near
normal with no significant wind events in the forecast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Chriest