794
FXAK69 PAFG 302237
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rainy weather continues through Monday. A low moving southeast
  from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread
  rain across the Central and Eastern Interior.

- Rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally
  higher totals of 0.50-1.00 inch along the northern Alaska
  Range and areas near Delta Junction.

- Snow levels around 2-2,500 feet will support snow across
  higher elevations of the Interior, with totals of 4 to 8
  inches along the Richardson highway corridor near Isabel
  Pass, locally higher above pass level.

- Breezy winds are expected late Sunday into Monday. West to
  northwest winds will gust 25-35 mph across much of the
  Interior as the next system moves through. These winds will
  have difficulty reaching into the valleys except in the Upper
  Tanana Valley.

- Cool conditions continue through Monday. Highs will generally
  remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the mid 30s
  to lower 40s. Clearing Monday night could allow for some
  isolated valleys to fall near freezing Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain continues through Sunday night. A low moving southeast
  from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread
  rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western
  Interior. Some showers will remain along the Chukchi Sea
  Coast Monday.

- Expect rainfall totals generally 0.10-0.50 inches. St
  Lawrence Island should remain mostly dry. Snow levels will
  fall to around 1-2,000 feet, allowing for light snow at higher
  elevations of the Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and
  Brooks Range.

- Wind is likely to be the most noticeable impact along the
  coast. West/southwest winds transition to north/northwest
  Sunday with gusts peaking around 25-45 mph.

- High tides Sunday are expected to rise 1-2 feet above the
  normal high tide across the West Coast, with the highest rises
  near two feet in the Kotzebue Sound and the far eastern coast
  of the Norton Sound.

- Temperatures cool behind the system, with highs dropping from
  the 50s to low 60s into the 40s to 50s, with overnight lows
  generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Another low crossing the Chukchi Sea today will reinforce
  breezy and showery conditions across much of the North Slope
  through most of the week.

- Rainfall will generally be 0.10-0.50 inches through Monday,
  with the highest amounts further west. The eastern North Slope
  from Deadhorse to Kaktovik should be considerably drier,
  generally around a trace to 0.10 inches. Snow levels around
  1-2,000 feet will support snow in the Brooks Range, with
  roughly a trace to 2 inches.

- Westerly winds increase Monday with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
  range possible west of Deadhorse and in the 15 to 25 mph range
  from Deadhorse east.

- Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday, dropping
  slightly to the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the week.
  Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some
  locations in the Brooks Range dropping into the 20s.

- Expect repeated showers through much of the week as additional
  disturbances continue to circulate around the lingering low
  pressure in the Arctic.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast towards the Gulf of
Alaska Sunday and Monday. This widespread rain across Northern
Alaska with pockets of snow at higher elevations. Wet snow
falling along the Richardson Highway through the Alaska Range
late Sunday through Monday could lead to poor travel conditions.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for this area. Afterwards
conditions calm briefly before another low in the Western
Bering Sea sends a front towards the West Coast Wednesday into
Thursday bringing wind and rain back to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Sunday, a strong upper
level low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast across the
Interior. A surface low formed beneath this upper level feature
earlier Sunday and follows the upper level low as it moves
southeast. This drags cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and
moderate rainfall (0.10 to 0.50 inches of water equivalent)
across the Interior through Sunday. The cooler temperatures also
lower snow levels to the 1000-2000 foot range across the West
Coast and Western Interior, and to around 2000 feet across the
Central and Eastern Interior. Snow is expected at higher
elevations across the Western Brooks Range, the Interior, and
the Alaska Range. Early Monday the upper level low reaches near
the Gulf of Alaska and almost immediate spins up another surface
low beneath it. This new surface low becomes stacked beneath
the upper level low and shifts the flow of moisture over the
Southeastern Interior this allows much of the remaining moisture
to be pulled more directly south into the northern slopes of
the Eastern Alaska Range. This allows for additional
precipitation (0.50 to 1.0 inches of water equivalent) to focus
around that area. Given the snow levels reaching near 2000 feet,
the top of the Richardson Highway near Isabel Pass could see
much of this precipitation fall as a messy wet snow Monday.

The now stacked low over the Gulf of Alaska continues southeast
late Monday into Tuesday which allows for ridging to start
building into Northern Alaska from the southwest. This ridging
is once again being sourced from the same large high pressure
system in the North Pacific that has been so influential to the
weather these past few weeks. The building ridge is halted by
low pressure over the Arctic Ocean that extends over the North
Slope. This Arctic low rests just offshore near Point Barrow and
supports consistently breezy and showery conditions across the
North Slope through the entire forecast period. It formed from
some remnant lower pressure from the system moving south today
that combines with the next low to move across the North
Slope Monday.

As the ridging builds in another large low pressure system moves
into the Western Bering Sea late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
low is quite strong and peaks near 970 millibars of surface
pressure, but is sandwiched between two area of high pressure
with little steering flow. It`s stuck in the Western Bering
until at least late Thursday and will have lost much of its
power by then. It may be stuck, but it will still impact the
West Coast/Western Interior by slinging a front towards that
region Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some model
disagreement as to how quickly and how far east this front is
able to reach the area, but when it does gusty winds and
moderate to heavy rain is expected once again. Coastal concerns
will be significantly limited by the orientation of the low
promoting primarily offshore winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday,
higher pressure will have built over much of the Interior
promoting warmer weather than earlier in the week. A low remains
over the Arctic Ocean near Point Barrow, keeping their
temperatures more moderate while supporting breezy westerly
winds and showery conditions through the week. Another low in
the Western Bering Sea slowly weakens in place, but sends a
strong and wet front towards the West Coast/Western Interior.
This front will have to push through the higher pressure that
has developed over the Interior to reach farther east. A triple
point low is expected to form as the front pushes east which
should help sustain the front at the cost of the strength of the
parent low. There is still a large amount of disagreement for
how quickly this triple point forms and how well does the front
push against the higher pressure. Confidence is therefore low in
the eastward extent of moderate to heavy rain showers along the
front. There is general agreement that the rain and lower
pressure will eventually win out over the ridging in the
Interior, but whether that means that the Central Interior will
see more rain on Thursday or Friday remains unclear.

As the front extends east the parent low slowly weakens and
meanders slightly east. Another strong low moves along the
Aleutians sometime Friday into Saturday which should pull much
of the remaining energy from the Bering Sea low with it east.
There is even worse agreement on how these two features interact
and thus the forecast for next weekend is very uncertain.
Another round of wet and windy weather is expected, but the
northward extent of these two systems is very questionable. A
more southerly path would keep much of the impact from this
system south of the Alaska Range, but a more northward path
could bring considerable rainfall and blustery winds to much of
the West Coast and Interior. The North Slope is expected to
remain more tame in comparison with more consistent low pressure
over the Arctic keeping breezy winds and showers going towards
the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
West to northwesterly winds along the West Coast through Sunday
night support onshore flow along northwest and west facing
coastlines. This is expected to allow the high tide Sunday into
Monday to peak around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide
level across the West Coast. The Kotzebue Sound, the Bering
Strait, and the far eastern Norton Sound are expected to see
rises closer to 2 feet. Afterwards conditions calm ahead of
another large low pressure system setting up in the Western
Bering Sea Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding this system, but the strongest winds are expected to
be offshore which will significantly limit any coastal hazard
potential.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Diminished fire weather concerns continue through early this week as
a cool, unsettled pattern persists across the region. A surface low
tracking southeast from the Chukchi Sea into the Gulf of Alaska
Sunday into Monday will help maintain cooler temperatures and
widespread moisture. Relative humidity values will see excellent
overnight recovery above 80 percent across the Eastern Interior
before dipping into the 40 to 60 percent range Tuesday into
Wednesday. West to northwest winds will increase Sunday night into
Monday, gusting between 25 and 40 mph. Stronger winds are expected
across higher elevations and through mountain passes before
subsiding Tuesday morning. Widespread wetting rain continues through
Monday, with rain transitioning to wet snow at elevations above 2000
feet along the Richard Highway near Isabel Pass overnight Sunday
before tapering off Monday afternoon. Looking ahead, a deep low
pressure system moving into the Bering Sea midweek will bring
another round of rain and gusty winds to our region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation across Northern Alaska is expected to
continue into Monday as a low continues to move from the Chukchi
Sea Coast southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Rain is expected
for most locations, but pockets of snow are expected at higher
elevations. Water equivalent totals around 0.10 to 0.50 inches are
expected for most areas, with higher amounts nearer 0.50 to 1.0
inches for the the northern slopes of the Alaska Range and
nearby areas. River and stream levels across the Western and
Central Interior remain above normal, but beneath any flood
concerns. Another low is expected to bring more rain to the
West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday into Thursday which
should keep water levels from falling much.

&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803>807-852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ811-
     857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-
     817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ853-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Satcher
HYDROLOGY...Stokes