489
FXAK69 PAFG 230007
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 PM AKDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An active period of weather is expected as a series of storm systems
lift northeast across the state this weekend through the middle of
next week. The first system tracks through the Bering Strait tonight
then along the Brooks Range on Saturday leaving a frontal boundary
draped across the interior. The next system is much less amplified
and rides along the frontal boundary Saturday night and Sunday
before a pair of increasingly amplified systems spin up along the
West Coast Monday through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall amounts in
excess of 3 inches are expected wherever the frontal boundary
lingers longest, which currently appears to be along an axis between
the YK Delta and the Central Brooks Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A seasonably strong storm system tracks across Northern AK on
Saturday bringing southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph, primarily to
elevations near and above 2000 ft.

- A quasi-stationary frontal boundary wavers across the area through
the middle of next week bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall
to all but the southeastern interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A coastal storm tracks through the Bering Strait tonight bringing
another round of high surf and south to southwest wind gusts up to
50 mph along the Norton Sound Coast through Saturday.

- A quasi-stationary frontal boundary wavers across the area through
the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall in excess of 3 inches is
likely between the Nulato Hills and south-central Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A storm system spreads rain across the North Slope tonight that
shifts east on Saturday with mostly dry weather on Sunday ahead of
another round of rain spreads north of the Brooks Range on Monday.

- South winds gusting up to 50 mph immediately north of the Brooks
Range are possible on Saturday.

- Snow may mix with rain at times, particularly in the higher
elevations of the Brooks Range but accumulations are not expected.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A 1000 mb surface low tracks through the Bering Strait Friday
evening before deepening to 995 over the Beaufort Sea Saturday
evening. A potent warm air advection regime spreads across interior
Alaska along and south of the systems warm front. However, rainfall
and poor low level mixing should prevent these winds from mixing to
the surface except at higher elevations and within the downslope
regime immediately north of the Brooks Range. Winds diminish quickly
Saturday evening as the low pressure departs northeast, but the
trailing cold front focuses rain chances into next week as a series
of disturbances track along it.

The first disturbance tracks inland Saturday night and Sunday and is
relatively low amplitude suggesting little frontal movement. As a
result, an axis of frontogenesis should focus a narrow band of
potentially heavy rain roughly between Lake Minchumina and Circle
(including the Fairbanks area). A noticeably deeper system spins
north across the Bering Sea toward St. Lawrence Island early Monday
morning at about 990 mb, which should allow the stalled frontal
boundary to lift north across the interior. This system lifts an
expansive precipitation shield northward along the West Coast and
North Slope before the surface low lifts north across the Beaufort
Sea. Once again, the trailing cold front stalls ahead of the
additional disturbances that spin north into the Bristol Bay region.
The southeast interior is unlikely to see much rain from this
pattern, but the remainder of the eastern interior should receive 1-
2 inches of rain by Monday evening. The heaviest rain is expected to
fall across the


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will be very low across the state with the
exception for the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RH values through the
rest of the week and into this weekend will dip into the 30s. Light
south/southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph for the end of this week will
strengthen with the approach of unsettled weather from the
northwest. By Saturday afternoon, winds will be out of the southwest
at 10-15 mph, potentially gusting up to 25 mph. Winds will weaken by
the end of the weekend, and min RH values will increase into the 40s
with the arrival of more low-level moisture as a slough of storm
systems traverse the state to the northwest. By the beginning of
next week, daily isolated (20-30% chance) rain showers should make
it into the Upper Tanana Valley, also helping to increase low-level
moisture. Winds during this time frame should remain largely out of
the south at 5-15 mph.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A hydrologic outlook has been issued for the majority of western and
Northwestern Alaska. There will be three main rounds of heavy
precipitation with areas of light to moderate rain continuing in
areas through at least next Friday. The first round is for portions
of the Seward Peninsula northeast towards Deadhorse tonight through
Saturday where 0.5 to 1.0 inches is possible with locally higher
amounts over 2 inches possible over the west-central Brooks Range.
The second round of heavy rain will focus more on the Central
Interior along a stalled frontal boundary Sunday through Monday
morning. A SW to NE oriented rainfall axis of 0.5 to 1.0 inches of
rain accompanies this with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches
possible across the higher elevations of the White Mountains. The
third round spins up the West Coast on Monday and spreads across the
North Slope on Tuesday. Similar rainfall amounts are expected with
the third round resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
by Tuesday evening from the west coast to the central Interior.
Locally higher amounts in excess of 5 inches are possible where
rainfall is most persistent. Furthermore, snow levels will be
relatively high for this event; above 8000 feet allowing for high
elevation glacier melt. Additional rainfall is possible through the
end of the week and rising water levels are expected for many
tributaries, particularly across the western interior.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

On the morning of Monday/D4, persistent troughing will be positioned
over the Bering Sea. A series of disturbances on its east flank,
which will have already brought considerable rain to much of the
area by Monday, will continue to do so. Extensive rainfall extending
eastward across the Lower Yukon Valley and southern Interior will
gradually shift to the north and west, with rainfall ending in the
Eastern Interior Tuesday but becoming widespread across the Western
Interior and West Coast. Additional rain is likely across much of
the North Slope from Tuesday onward. Widespread additional
accumulations of over 2 inches are possible across most of the
Western Interior through Thursday/D7, with accumulations of upwards
of an inch across coastal locations from Nome south. Warmer weather
is possible across the Central and Interior from mid-to-late week as
ridging builds in from Canada, with highs in the upper 60s or lower
70s possible.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

A surge of south to southwest winds brings elevated water levels and
high surf to the Norton Sound Coast tonight through Saturday. Water
levels are expected to be 1-3 feet higher than what occurred on
Thursday. This translates to water levels 4 to 7 ft above mean
higher high tide for Norton Bay with lower values of 2 to 5 feet
above mean higher high tide for the remainder of Norton Sound.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ811-812-832-834.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ821.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ822-824-825.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-806-850-853-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803-805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808>810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$
Kutta/DS Extended