580
FXAK69 PAFG 050013
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A transition to an unseasonably cold pattern is
underway as a pair of anomalously cold upper level lows bring both
cold air and precipitation to the area through the weekend. Heavy
snow is possible through the weekend over the central Brooks
Range. Snow or a mix of rain and snow will also be possible above
2000 feet across the Interior by Sunday. Highs will struggle to
reach 50 degrees in even the Interior Valleys Friday and
Saturday. The North Slope will continue to see low stratus and
below normal temperatures while the West Coast begins to clear
from north to south on Thursday night. Much warmer, summer-like
temperatures are possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much colder temperatures will move into the area through the
  weekend.

- Rain and snow or all snow possible above 2000 feet elevation by
  Sunday. Accumulating snow possible at Cultivate and over
  summits. See Special Weather Statement for details.

- Breezy west/southwest winds across the rest of the Interior
  persist through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday mainly near the Yukon
  River east of .

- Light intermittent rain showers taper off tonight. Gradual
  clearing from north to south beginning Thursday.

- North-northwest winds increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
  mph through the Bering Strait late on Wednesday and continue
  into Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow is possible in the Brooks Range and north to Toolik
  Lake this week and over the weekend, with the heaviest snow
  likely from Thursday evening through Saturday morning. Another
  round is likely on Sunday night. Expect 5-11" of total
  accumulation.

- Well below normal temperatures continue with highs around freezing
  and lows mainly in the low 20s.

- Persistent onshore flow results in low stratus and fog
  potential continuing through the week, especially during the
  "night".

- Winds generally 20 mph or less except near Point Lay where east
  winds gusting to 45 mph will continue into Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A very cold core upper low
continues to reside over the Lower Yukon Valley this afternoon as
southerly flow to the east of the low has weakened as have south
winds through Alaska Range Passes. This low will weaken in place
and become absorbed into the longwave trough through late
Thursday, but not before rotating multiple shortwaves over the
area, causing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Following this,
a low from the Arctic will drop south over the Western Brooks
Range, reinforcing cold air already in place. 850 mb temperatures
as cold as -10 C will move south of the Brooks Range over the
Kobuk Valley by Friday. These cold temperatures will moderate
toward the east, but will still be plenty cold enough to bring
heavy snow to Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes where a Winter Storm
Watch is in effect. Snow levels as far east as Denali to Fairbanks
may fall to 2000 feet by Sunday night, so snow is possible over
higher terrain even into the Interior. This is quite unseasonable
for June. See Special Weather Statement for details. As the low
continues south into next week, southerly flow will bring
additional rounds of precipitation to the area. Being mostly west
of the low, the West Coast looks to remain much drier.

Models continue to flip/flop on timing and amounts of QPF with
these systems. Overall, expect poor model performance in this
pattern. We`ve leaned closer to the Canadian solutions with the
forecast. The Canadian has been the most consistent with the
track, timing, and strength of major features, and generally
performs better with systems dropping south from the Arctic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Concerns continue to be very limited in the short
term as cooler and wetter than normal conditions persist with
only isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures will be mostly in
the 60s today before falling to the 40s and 50s through the
weekend. Areas from Nenana to Fairbanks and up the Steese Highway
to Circle could briefly dip below 30% RH this afternoon, then RHs
remain above 30%, and generally well above 30%, through the
weekend. South winds through Alaska Range passes continue to
diminsh this afternoon, easing completely overnight. Breezy SW
winds are expected through the weekend across the Interior.
Thunderstorms will be isolated and mainly near the Yukon River
east of Kaltag and over the Fortymile Country through Friday. Models
are now all showing a ridge building over the area toward the
middle of next week bringing significant warming, though it is
still very uncertain how long the ridge will persist. Stay
tuned...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag
River. Temperatures remain below normal through the week so break-
up is not expected quite yet. There are no major concerns unless
there is a rapid warm up. Warming is expected toward the middle of
next week, though it is still uncertainty as to how significant it
will be.

Rivers and streams draining the south slopes of the central Brooks
Range including the Koyukuk will see minor rises this week, but
there are no concerns. Elsewhere, there are also no concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...The extended forecast period
beginning Saturday evening will start off with 2 strong, cold,
closed lows aloft providing the main influence for weather across
Northern Alaska. One will lie over the Kobuk Valley and one in the
Gulf of Alaska just east of Kodiak. The low in the Gulf will bring
additional moisture into the Interior while the cold temperatures
beneath the low further north will allow snow to continue in the
Brooks Range into Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will begin to
build over the Bering Sea on Sunday and spread over the Western
Interior on Monday, pushing the longwave trough off to the east.
Expect warming temperatures across the entire area by the middle
of next week, though there is still significant uncertainty on how
warm temperatures will get.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-811-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Chriest