688
FXAK69 PAFG 042311 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKST Tue Feb 4 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning fog has dissipated again across the Middle Tanana
Valley. Temperatures along the North Slope look to cool down,
but remain above normal later this week. Mild weather looks to
continue through the end of the week. An impulse of energy will
spread more precip over west coast today. Light snow along the
West Coast today and tomorrow will move east into the Interior
tomorrow and Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mild weather persists this week with highs in the teens above
  zero and lows around 0 to 10 below.

- Light snow in the Interior Wednesday and Thursday with around 2
  to 4 inches across the area. There could be some light freezing
  drizzle mixed in with the snow due to the abundant low level
  moisture over the area. Not expecting it to be impactful but
  could form on windshields while driving.

- After the frontal passage late Thursday night, expect overnight
  lows 10 to 20 below in the valleys and around 30 below for the
  Yukon Flats, Friday and Saturday. Warming again later in the
  weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warm weather persists across the area with light snow along the
  coast today and tomorrow.
- 1 to 3 inches of snow from Unalakleet northward with the
   highest amounts expected in the Bendeleben Mountains.
- Snow then moves inland tomorrow with an additional 2 to 3
   inches expected from Golovin south and east.

- Quieter weather moves in for much of the coast, but a low in the
  Bering Sea will keep snow chances in St. Lawrence Island through
  this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and breezy southwest winds in Anaktuvuk Pass will
  keep visibility low, but conditions improve throughout the day.

- Breezy southwest winds today with gusts to 35 mph along the
  coast. Temperatures remain warm and near record territory.

- There`ll be light snow chances tonight into Wednesday from the
  Brooks Range to the Coast.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...

A 500mb ridge will remain over the area providing southerly flow
along the West Coast and southwest/west flow over the North Slope
and Interior. This is a "dirty" high pressure with shortwaves
cutting through it. These shortwaves will provide chances for snow
from the West Coast to the Interior through the end of the week.
There is high confidence in around 3 to 6 inches of snow along
the West Coast and Western Interior through tomorrow. The ridge
axis will shift to the east on Wednesday and westerly flow will
develop over the state. A shortwave will move across the Interior
on Wednesday and Thursday bringing the next shot of snow for parts
of the Interior, light accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the
span of two days.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

- Cold air in the interior this weekend pushes east into Canada by
  Monday.

- High pressure in the Interior next week with mostly dry
  conditions and seasonal temperatures.

- Periods of light precip along the West Coast possible through
  next week.

Temperatures fall this weekend as an Arctic low moves southeast
across the North Slope and through the Interior into Canada.
Higher pressure builds behind this low early next week with strong
ridging returning to Alaska behind this Arctic low. A strong low
moving to near the western Aleutians Sunday will help keep
unsettled weather along the West Coast where the ridge and trough
around this low interact. This pattern lasts through next week,
with the Interior high pressure weakening somewhat by the end of
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-813>815-852-859-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-810-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-850-851-853-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JK