041
FXAK69 PAFG 291216
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough is moving through the North Slope this
morning, then the Brooks Range this afternoon/evening with a round
of rain and gusty southwest wind. As the front traverses over the
Brooks Range, it will help increase west winds from the West
Coast to the Interior which will gust to around 15 to 25 mph for
most of the area Wednesday afternoon. A couple of showers are
possible in the Yukon Flats but most of the day is dry. Otherwise,
warming temperatures and drying conditions are likely from
Thursday through the weekend for most of Northern Alaska. The
warmest spots will be in the Central/Eastern Interior as it
approaches the upper 70s and low 80s, while the Western Interior
gets into the mid to upper 70s. Up on the North Slope,
temperatures in the 70s are likely, especially away from the coast
while 50s and 60s are expected for most of the Northern Alaska
Coastline.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures approaching 70 in most spots. West winds increase
  this afternoon with widespread gusts around 15 to 25 mph. The
  higher terrain of the White Mtns and Dalton Highway Summits may
  reach 35 mph.

- Theres a chance for a rain shower from the White Mtns to the
  Brooks Range this evening, but most of the day is dry.

- Temperatures rise through the weekend, getting into the upper
  70s and low 80s Saturday and Sunday as a high pressure builds
  overhead.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Areas of stratus, patchy fog and light showers are possible
  along the coast today, but most of the area should be dry.

- A light west breeze, around 15 to 25 mph is expected for most
  of the area, strongest in Kotzebue and around the Seward
  Peninsula today.

- Temperatures will be warming into the 70s in the Interior
  through the weekend with 50s and 60s likely along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A front is moving southeast providing areas of rain and gusty
  southwest wind. The heaviest rain will be in the Western Brooks
  Range and Chukchi Sea Coast with a total of 0.20-0.40 of rain
  through this evening. The Coast will receive 0.10-0.25 and the
  Central/Eastern Brooks Range receives 0.05-0.20.

- Warming and drying weather is expected from Friday through the
  weekend. Expect high temperatures to get into the 70s away from
  the coast, and 50s/60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is moving over the North Slope providing rain
and wind. This will traverse southeast throughout the day
allowing for gusty winds in the Interior and along the West Coast
as well. Rain should remain largely in the Brooks Range and North
Slope today, but there is a slight chance for a shower in the
northern Interior this evening. Otherwise, a ridge will build in
from the southwest and be the predominant weather feature through
the weekend. This will allow for temperatures to warm across
Northern Alaska with many locations away from the coast getting
into the 70s this weekend. The warmest locations will likely be in
the Central/Eastern Interior. Moving forward, there is uncertainty
by Sunday morning as a shortwave trough in the Bering moves
towards the West Coast. It is becoming more likely that rain will
develop from west to east and even get into the Western Interior.
This would drop temperatures below normal in Western Alaska.
Afterwards, it tries to get into the Central/Eastern Interior on
Monday but the ridge also may try to hold. This will be talked
about more in the long term discussion.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An Arctic front moves into the North Slope and through the Brooks
Range on Wednesday. The front will weaken and drift southeast
Wednesday night/Thursday with some showers possible in the Eastern
Interior, though the chances for wetting rain remains low.
Temperatures through Thursday will be in the 60s to near 70 across
the Interior with min RHs around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern
Interior and 35 to 50% in the Western Interior. Friday and
Saturday will see warmer weather, with temperatures climbing into
the mid to upper 70s, and even into the lower 80s on Saturday.
Winds will be a bit breezy from the west on Wednesday across the
Interior with gusts around 15 to 25 mph, though no significantly
strong wind is expected. Afterwards, ridging will become more
prominent over the region as it builds in from the southwest. This
is looking more likely to produce a period of warmer and drier
weather over much of Northern Alaska.

Minimum relative humidity will likely be in the 25 to 35% range
in the Interior Friday into Saturday. The ridge looks to remain
the key weather feature through the first few days of August. As
said ridge shifts east through the weekend, bringing the area of
hottest temperatures along with it. The Yukon Flats and the
Fortymile Country should have the best chances to see
temperatures above 80F on Sunday. The ridge should suppress
thunderstorm development through the weekend. Light southerly
chinooking across the Alaska Range is possible Sunday as the ridge
axis shifts to the east and a low drops south across the eastern
Bering Sea. Monday and Tuesday will likely see wetting rain return
to the western interior and coast, spreading into the central and
eastern interior in quick succession.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time, rivers are near normal stages.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
Through the weekend, drier weather continues to hold for much of
Northern Alaska. High temperatures on Saturday look set to reach
into the 80s for much of the central and eastern interior as a 570
decameter ridge slowly moves E across the interior. by Sunday,
the ridge will be weakening, paving the way for a short wave to
race over its northern flank, moving across the W Coast and into
the interior, bringing growing chances of showers by the end of
Sunday.

After the weekend, a change in the overall pattern is expected.
Although previous ensemble runs had been indicating the presence of
a persistent ridge over the eastern interior for the first half of
the week, which would have brought dry and warm weather, more recent
runs have almost entirely reversed this. The ridge instead looks
sets to weaken Sunday before being displaced into British Columbia
on Monday. Confidence is now growing in the presence of a trough
building over the Bering and the western interior will be stronger
than previously anticipated. This will drive widespread SW flow
across northern Alaska, opening the door for wetting rains to spread
across the western interior - and swiftly follow suit in the central
and eastern interior. There is a possibility that the trough could
drive the development of a new ridge over the Yukon - which could
pave the way for southerly Chinook flow over the Alaskan Range
Tuesday and Wednesday. But confidence and timing in this particular
outcome are not yet set in stone.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-854-858.
&&

$$