524
FXAK69 PAFG 172224
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Active, but mostly benign weather continues through the weekend,
expect it to be cool and wet out west with gradual warming/drying
to the east. The main drivers are a ridge building in the
Central/Eastern Interior and a trough over Western Alaska with
southerly chinook flow in between. Although it`ll be drier
overall, the North Slope and Central/Eastern Interior will get
showers this evening through Saturday. Another low will move
onshore in SW AK on Sunday allowing for more widespread showers in
Western AK.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
  through tonight across the Interior. Highest chance for showers and
  a period of rain is in the Eastern Interior.

- Tomorrow, a few showers remain possible in the southern Interior
  while most of the rain lies from the Eastern Yukon Flats to
  Arctic Village.

- Wind advisories in effect for the Alaska Range and Delta
  Junction from Saturday night through 12 PM Monday.

- Warming and drying trend on Sunday/Monday with highs in the 70s
  and even 80s on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wet and cool weather persists through the weekend. Most of the
  rain is showery so there will be some peaks of sun through the
  weekend. Heaviest rain over the higher terrain, valleys see
  occasional showers and 0.10 to 0.25" of rain.

- High temperatures remain gradually warming into the low-mid 60s
  for most of the area through the weekend. Coastal spots stay in
  the mid to upper 50s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Scattered showers and isolated storms in the Brooks Range
  through the weekend. Periods of rain on Saturday from Anaktuvuk
  Pass north/east.

- A drying and warming trend after Saturday with highs in the 70s
  in the Plains and 50s/60s along the coast by Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the ongoing forecast. Troughing persists over
the west with weak fronts moving through the Interior providing
areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The highest chances
for rain will be in the Western Interior today, along the AlCan
tonight and in the Eastern Brooks Range tomorrow. Another low
moves into SW AK on Sunday providing a round of rain once again
for the Western Interior. At this point, ridging will be building
into Eastern AK resulting in southerly chinook flow over the
Interior and North Slope. This allows for much warmer temperatures
as well as AK Range gap winds which will be up to 65 mph from
Saturday evening through 12PM Monday.

With the ridging comes thunderstorm chances and while they are
relatively low, they aren`t zero. Today, we`ll be monitoring a few
thunderstorms across the Interior with the highest chance towards
the AK Range and Brooks Range. Otherwise the risk moves north to
the Brooks Range and west towards the Seward Peninsula tomorrow,
then to the NW Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range on Sunday.
Early next week as the ridge builds then breaks down, there may be
enhanced areas of thunderstorms, though the placement is uncertain
as of now.

Otherwise, expect continued warming and even hot temperatures
across Eastern AK by Monday before a front brings increased
chances for storms and cooler temperatures on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be well into the 70s and low 80s for the Central
and Eastern Interior on Sunday, then in the low to mid 80s on
Monday. The North Slope also gets into the 70s on Sunday/Monday
with coastal locations in the 50s and 60s. In Western AK it will
be warming up, but not dramatically as highs in the Interior get
into the low to mid 60s this weekend, with 50s to near 60 along
the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not much fire weather concern moving forward, however there are
some key points to hit on. First, winds will be increasing through
the AK Range Passes Saturday evening through 12 PM Monday with
gusts to 65 mph. Gusts to 55 mph are likely in Delta Junction
during this time. Second, min RHs during this time will drop to
around 30 to 40% across the Interior, so it`ll be near critical
thresholds but remain over. There may be a couple of spots where
min RHs reach the 25 to 30% range, especially in the Eastern
Interior and Upper Tanana Valley. Third, Interior temperatures
will be warming during this time with highs in the 70s and 80s on
Sunday, then low to mid 80s on Monday. After Monday, we may see an
uptick in thunderstorms on Tuesday as the ridge breaks down, but
temperatures will be dropping and rain chances increase again
thereafter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Upper level ridging that builds over the weekend is expected to stay
over a large portion of the Interior and North Slope through the
weekend. Southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes are
expected to weaken by Monday night, but may pick back up during
the day on Tuesday. Gusts are not expected to be as strong as the
wind advisory for this upcoming weekend, but could reach 35 to 45
mph gusts through Wednesday night. Southeast winds are expected to
strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low lingers over the
Bering Sea, likely turning southwesterly by Wednesday morning.
Gusts over the YK Delta and Norton Sound could reach 20 to 30 mph.
Temperatures are expected to cool down starting Tuesday after
peaking for the week on Monday. The Interior could see highs
reaching the mid to upper 60s by Friday with the Yukon Flats
remaining in the low to mid 70s. The presence of the low is
expected to continue allowing moisture into the area. While most
of Northern Alaska is expected to see intermittent showers, the
highest accumulations expected over parts of Western Alaska. By
next weekend, it is likely that troughing will expand over
Northern Alaska and push ridging out of the region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Bianco
Srinivasan - Extended Forecast