237
FXAK69 PAFG 171034 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 AM AKDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A bit more active weather returns to the N Mainland over the next
several days as a trough of low pressure moves from the West Coast
into the Central Interior. A cool front will be dragged eastward
along with it, bringing cool and damp weather out west, with
increasing clouds and shower chances for the E Interior and AK
Range. Snow will even spread over the Brooks Range and into the
Arctic Sunday and into early next week. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across the Interior this weekend and likely most
of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
The cold upper low is departing into the Yukon, finally bringing
to an end cool and blustery north winds. Today starts out mostly
sunny then clouds are rolling in from the West with showers and even
an isolated thunderstorm moving into the Lower Tanana Valley and
into the Koyukuk Valley. Showers move into the E Interior Sun
afternoon, with chances for isolated thunderstorms spreading east
into the Interior highlands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
shift east again on Monday, which means cooler and overall damper
weather shifts east, too. After several drier and sunny days, that
ends Sunday and Monday.

- Dry and mostly sunny early today with increasing clouds in the
  afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances move from the Lower Tanana Valley
  and Upper Koyukuk Valley today, and shift east through Monday.

- Overall, cloudier and damper conditions move east into next
  week, with daily chances for showers and an isolated
  thunderstorm.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain showers along a cool front shift east today, with isolated
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the Yukon Valley. Snow showers will be possible across the NW
Arctic and W Brooks Range tonight into Monday. Cool arctic air
with drying conditions move into the region behind the leading
front, along with increasing north winds across coastal regions
Sat night through Monday.

- Rain showers move east today into the Interior, with isolated
  thunderstorms possible across parts of the Yukon Valley.

- Snow showers with light accumulations possible across the NW
  Arctic and Chukchi Coast through Monday.

- Colder and drier air with north winds to 30 mph across coastal
  areas on Sun and Mon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
Dense fog has formed overnight across parts of the Arctic Coast
and Plain, mainly from Atqasuk to Point Thompson. This continues
today, will partly burn off in the afternoon, and then will once
again be possible tonight. Light north winds at the surface
develop Sun and Sun night along with increasing south flow. There
has been a notable trend north with a front crossing the Brooks
Range since yesterday, and it now looks likely that snow
accumulations will develop across the entire Brooks Range and
Arctic Sun through Tue. Snow will not be heavy, but it should
accumulate to the tune of 1 to 4 inches.

- Locally dense fog possible through this morning and then again
  tonight.

- North winds and increasing snowfall chances develop Sun through
  Tue with 1 to 4 inches of snow. This snowfall will impact the
  Dalton Hwy Sun night and Mon.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A deepening upper low is moving across the West Coast and into E
Norton Sound this morning, with that center analyzed around 535
dam. A cool front is shifting across the Seward Peninsula,
Kotzebue Sound, and E Norton Sound with light rainfall occuring
along it. A stubborn and closed off arctic low is currently centered
over the E Yukon Flats and slowly exiting into Canada. Temps behind
this low have dropped below freezing across colder Interior valleys
this morning. Over the next few days, the trough out west shifts
into the W Interior then stalls, with light south flow aloft across
the E Interior and across the AK Range, spreading north to the
Arctic. This will allow for snowfall accumulations over the Arctic
and Brooks Range with cooler and damper weather out west, and
increased clouds and showers with isolated thunderstorms over the
Interior and higher elevations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A trough over the West Coast shifts east into the W Interior/Yukon
Valley today then stalls out. This means wetting rains along the
front shift into the W Interior today, with isolated wet
thunderstorms possible over parts of the Yukon Valley. After this,
it looks cooler and damper out west, with increasing clouds and
showers over the E Interior into next week. Isolated wet
thunderstorms are still possible Sunday over the higher terrain
north and east of FNSB, with the threat for isolated wet
thunderstorms shifting east again on Monday as cooler and more
moist air shifts eastward. Today is the final day of minimum RH
into the lower 20s, with a gradual trend up above 40 percent
across the N Mainland Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River continues to hold sections of thermally degraded
in-place ice between Beaver and Tanana. These limited sections are
slowly breaking up and will continue to create ice runs they are
pushed out. Remaining ice should clear out by this weekend.

For the Buckland River:
 - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water
   in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of
   intact ice and open water; towards the headwaters open water
   conditions dominate. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from
   Buckland, including at known jam points.

 -A local observer reports that water has continued to rise and is
  now just a few feet below bank full. As per latest webcams, it
  looks to still be below bank full. However, with imminent
  overbank flooding anticipated, a flood warning for Buckland
  remains in effect.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The suite of global numerical models, including Machine Learning
weather models, continue to remain consistent in depicting a
trough over the western half of the Mainland and moist south flow
over the eastern half pretty much all of next week. This means it
will remain drier out west with chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms out east, with periods of snowfall over the E Arctic
possible. For this time of year, it looks fairly seasonal and
typical for late spring with no significant anomalies expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...River Flood Warning for AKZ818.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher