079
FXAK69 PAFG 081308
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers expected to become more widespread, along
  with a slight cooling trend, throughout the day Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Gusty west winds expected to gradually increase through
  Wednesday with potential gusts between 30 and 40 mph
  possible. The strongest winds are expected in the higher
  terrain north of Fairbanks. Some of these winds may have
  issues reaching to the valleys that are sheltered from the
  west. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Interior through
  Wednesday night.

- Scattered showers and a slight warming trend is expected
  through the latter half of the week. By Early Thursday
  morning, showers will be more widespread over the Central
  Interior and more isolated over the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers expected to continue through Tuesday
  afternoon.A brief lull in precipitation is expected for most
  areas Tuesday night before starting up again after midnight
  with a W to E moving cold front from the Chukchi.

- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering
  into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm
  front across the West Coast. With this system, expect
  widespread rain, gusty winds, and the potential for high surf
  and minor coastal erosion.

- Through Thursday night, for areas north of the YK-Delta,
  rain totals are expected to be between 0.5" and 2.0". The
  heavier amounts are expected along the southern Seward
  Peninsula and areas south of the Western Brooks Range.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward
  Peninsula Coast north to Kivalina for water level rises
  around 2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line.

- High Wind Watches have also been issued for St. Lawrence
  Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through
  Tuesday.This will be quickly followed by a weak, W to E
  moving cold front early Wednesday. Rain showers are expected
  to continue across most of the Arctic Plains with higher
  elevations over the Brooks Range expected to see a rain/snow
  mix.

- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering
  into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm
  front across the North Slope by early Thursday morning. With
  this system, expect widespread rain and gusty winds. Along the
  NW Arctic Coast, there is a chance for high surf and minor
  coastal erosion.

- Through Thursday night, rainfall totals across the Arctic
  Pains and the NE Arctic Coast are expected to be between
  0.15" and 0.4". While the NW Arctic Coast, from Utqiagvik to
  the Western Brooks Range, could see totals between 0.5" and
  1.0".

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Western/NW
  Arctic Coasts from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level
  rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide
  line.

- High Wind Watches have also been issued for Point Hope to
  Point Lay for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are expected to continue across much of the
state through the early week ahead of a series of fronts moving
in. The first will be a weak cold front progressing W to E
across the North Slope starting late Tuesday night. This will
help to continue the showery pattern as the front progresses.
Meanwhile, a strong low is expected to move NE out of the Bering
into Siberia. This, along with a strengthening ridge, will
provide the state with southwesterly winds that will slowly
increase through the latter half of the week. The initial round
of strong winds will be Wednesday across the Interior. A series
of wind advisories are in effect across the Interior. Starting
Wednesday night, the ridge and low will strengthen slightly,
allowing for a stronger south to southwesterly across the
Bering. This is expected to set up a prolonged period of gusty
winds between 50 and 60 mph across the West Coast. As a result,
there is a slight chance for some areas across the Norton Sound
and Kotezbue Sound to see potential coastal impacts. A series of
high surf advisories and high wind watches are in effect across
the West Coast. In addition to the strong winds, an abundant
amount of precipitation is expected to accommodate this system
which will allow for heavy and persistent rainfall for some
isolated locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change has been made to the overall forecast. A quick
look at satellite imagery shows much of the state covered with
mid to low level clouds and scattered showers. This is
associated with a 544 decameter upper level low that has set up
over Bristol Bay. This continues to provide much of Northern
Alaska with southerly flow aloft, allowing for the continuous
influx of moisture and shortwaves. The southerly flow continues
to provide the Alaska Range passes with gusty southerly winds
and is expected to continue throughout Tuesday morning. The rest
of the day will consist of this upper level low progressing
eastward across the Alaska Peninsula, and into the northern
portion of the Gulf of Alaska. This will continue to provide
isolated showers across portions of Northern Alaska. As the
shortwave moves into the northern Gulf, 850mb and 925mb
temperatures are showing a slight cooling trend as cooler air
moves in from the NW. This will help to slightly amplify the
trough, setting up west to northwesterly flow across Northern
Alaska as the trough axis moves across the Alaska Panhandle.

Starting early Wednesday morning, this northwesterly setup will
allow for a shortwave to move E-SE from the Chukchi to the
southern portions of the Yukon Flats. Previous model runs were
showing a good amount of disagreement with the trajectory of how
far south the trough will be able to push as it shifts east. The
latest runs show that models are trending toward the ECMWF,
which was expected based on the discussion from the previous
morning. A weak cold front is expected to progress W to E across
as part of this trough. This will allow for isolated showers to
continue across the North Slope and most of the Central/Eastern
Interior. As the front moves across the state Tuesday night
into Wednesday, a 30-40kt westerly, low-level jet is expected
to form across much of the Interior. This will provide much of
this area with increased wind gusts through Thursday morning.
The strongest winds across the Interior are expected to be at
the higher elevations, along with any valleys that are not
sheltered by terrain to their west. A series of wind advisories
are in effect across the Interior through Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, a 980mb low will be moving NE from the Western
Bering into Siberia Wednesday night with an upper-level ridge
building up over the Bering Sea. This building ridge will set up
the potential for a 1040mb high to set up in the north Pacific
and play a major role for the remainder of the forecast period.
An associated warm front will extend to the SE from the low over
Siberia, moving NE across the West Coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. The low over Siberia and the high in the north Pacific
will set up a period for prolonged south to southwesterly flow
across the Bering Sea and West Coast. Integrated Vapor
Transport outputs from several models are showing the potential
for this system to tap into an atmospheric river stretching as
far southwest as Japan. This will provide much of the West Coast
a chance to see heavy rainfall through the end of the week, with
storm totals as high as 1.5" to 2" in some locations. With the
southwesterly flow, the most favorable positions for the
heaviest precipitation will be on the south side of higher
terrain. These areas include the southern Seward Peninsula and
areas south of the Western Brooks Range. The prolonged period of
strong, southwesterly winds will also provide a chance for
coastal concerns across the West Coast. More on this will be
discussed in the Coastal Hazard section.

By Thursday, the ridge from the Bering will continue to shift
east across the state as the low from Siberia shifts NE out of
Siberia and into the Chukchi. By this point, the strongest gusts
across the West Coast will shift through the Bering Strait and
the NW Arctic Coast. The strength of this ridge will play a role
as too how much precipitation will fall across the southern
portions of the Interior. The latest guidance is showing the
potential for a decent amount through the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Attention for the start of the long term forecast continues to
remain focused on the surface low now shifting more eastward
across the Arctic. With the ridging expected to hold in place,
this will keep the west/southwest gradient prevalent across the
state. This will keep winds gusty in place as the low continues
to shift east across the Arctic Coast throughout the weekend. A
quick look at the upper-level pattern shows a noticeable
difference amongst the GFS. It is showing the associated upper
level trough to dig further south across parts of the North
Slope as it shifts east. Interestingly, this trough is weaker
with the GFS in comparison to the EC and the Canadian, which do
not have the trough digging further south. With that said, the
GFS quickly becomes an outlier as it does not seem to have a
good grasp on this system.

As the weekend progresses, west to southwesterly flow looks to
continue across much of Northern Alaska. There is good agreement
amongst the models in showing a week shortwave moving across
the Norton Sound Saturday night into Sunday. The associated
surface low does not look to be as strong, thus winds with this
do not look to be a concern at this time. However, it is showing
the potential to bring another round of scattered showers
across much of the West Coast and the Interior as some of the
ridging will have flattened over the Eastern Interior with its
eastward progression.

By the start of next week, all models are showing the potential
for another low to move north across the Central Aleutians and
into the Bering Sea. Deterministic models are showing the
strength of this low to be anywhere between 970 and 990mb,
while ensembles are closer to around 1000mb. This low is being
brought north by a negatively tilted ridge that will be building
up over the Bering around Monday. The track and strength of
this low will be greatly dependent on how this ridge manifests.
With that said, there is a great deal of uncertainty at this
time regarding potential impacts given the various model
solutions. This will continue to monitored closely over the next
several model runs.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A developing Siberian low will move northeast towards the Chukchi
Sea setting up southwesterly flow across the West Coast. This low
will bring gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound.
With these strong winds and long fetch of the winds we will see
water rises across the West Coast. For much of the coastline we
could see rises of 2 to 5 feet with the highest rises from Elim to
Unalakleet.

With the strong southwesterly winds continuing for roughly 48
hours, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be
elevated. Waters will begin to rise Wednesday and will peak
Thursday night for the communities along the Norton Sound and
the Y-K Delta Coastline. The higher waters are expected to
continue through Friday. For communities along Kotzebue Sound
and then the NW Arctic Coastline waters will rise early Thursday
morning and peak Friday morning. The higher waters for this
region will continue into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures cool Tuesday as a low over Southern Alaska brings
showers to the Interior. As the low moves east, showers follow
bringing higher chances of wetting rain across the Interior. The
Upper Tanana Valley is expected to see some rain with this system
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A cold front associated with a
shortwave low moves out of the Chukchi Sea east across the Interior
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Showery conditions continue along
the initial front as it moves east. Showers become more isolated
behind the front. Gusty westerly winds are expected across the
Interior behind the front as a strong jet develops at 925 millibars.
Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are generally expected across the
Interior Wednesday with some stronger gusts possible across higher
elevations north and east of Fairbanks. Temperatures cool further
Wednesday with highs falling into the low to mid 50s across most of
the Interior.

Another low moves through eastern Siberia late Wednesday into
Thursday which brings another round of strong winds and heavy rain
to parts of the West Coast and Western Interior and a warming trend
to the entirety of Northern Alaska. The wind and rain impacts will
be much weaker farther east into the Interior. The Southeastern
Interior is not expected to see much rain with this system. Instead
temperatures will warm again with highs reaching back into the 60s
by the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weak Bering Sea low will be bringing 0.25" to 0.75" of
rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Tuesday.
While this amount of rainfall wouldn`t typically warrant hydro
concerns, it does prelude a bigger event Wednesday night through
Sunday. A strong low will move into the Chukchi Sea late
Wednesday night and will be accompanied with an atmospheric
river extending to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help
to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of
Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be
the driest spots with only up to 0.25" of rainfall expected. On
the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward
Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will
be the wettest.

This additional rainfall is not expected to create any concerns
along the mainstem rivers. However, on the smaller creeks and
streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions.
Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water
conditions in the smaller tributaries.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ801-802.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ801.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ815>818.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 PM AKDT Friday
     for AKZ820>822.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
     night for AKZ820-821-827.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday
     for AKZ831>846.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ804-809.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ804-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for
     PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ855.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Twombly
COASTAL........Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Dennis