497
FXAK69 PAFG 102122
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
122 PM AKDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Blowing snow will be winding down on the Arctic Coast west of
Point Thomson tonight. Point Thomson and Kaktovik will see
noticeably better conditions by Wednesday evening with nearly calm
winds by Wednesday night as a surface high builds in from the
west. Deering, Buckland and the Chukchi Sea Coast will see
weakening winds through the day as well, but an uptick in offshore
winds is expected Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon with
some minor blowing snow possible. The Interior remains mostly dry
with record or near record cold for the next couple of nights
before a gradual warm up by the end of the week. However it will
stay unseasonably cold by the end of the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A record cold temperature was tied at Fairbanks International
  Airport this morning with a low of -41F. March 11th`s record low
  is also -41F and it will likely approach that as well tonight.

- Record to near record morning lows remain through Thursday
  morning, then there will be a gradual reprieve towards the end
  of the week and into the weekend.
- There will be large diurnal ranges with high temperatures in
   the single digits below zero today/tomorrow, then single digits
   above zero by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northwest winds around Kotzebue sound and the Chukchi Sea Coast
  will weaken today but increase slightly with gusts to 20 mph
  from the southeast Wednesday night through Thursday.

- Temperatures gradually warm after Wednesday morning with highs
  in the single digits and teens above zero (20s in St. Lawrence
  Island). And lows in the single digits on either side of zero.

- Warmer temperatures come with light snow from Wednesday morning
  through Thursday night. A widespread 2 to 5 inches is expected
  with the highest amounts expected on south facing slopes of the
  Seward Peninsula.
- South winds may gust to 35 mph from Brevig Mission to Diomede
   resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Improving conditions along most of the coastline west of Point
  Thomson today.

- Kaktovik and Point Thomson see rapidly improving conditions
  tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Mostly quiet and cold weather persists later this week and into
  the weekend with only minor light snow chances along the Chukchi
  Sea Coast and Arctic Plain Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The pattern remains largely the same this week with a stationary
573 decameter low over the Western Aleutians and general troughing
over the eastern half of the state with northerly flow aloft in
the middle. An upper lever shortwave trough will move across the
top of the ridge on Wednesday bringing a relatively weak 1023mb
surface low to the West Coast. This will bring light snow to much
of the West Coast Wednesday through through Thursday night.
Blowing snow is possible, especially in the Bering Strait Region
from Brevig Mission to Diomede as south winds gust upwards of 35
mph. Another detail that comes with this low is warmer
temperatures. Southerly flow will bring high temperatures above
zero for the entire coast as well as most of the Interior mid to
late week.

Speaking of the Interior, expect record or near record lows
tonight and tomorrow night with a gradual warming trend
thereafter. The weak surface low on the West Coast will help bring
warmer temperatures into the Interior. One other contributing
factor for the increasing temps is the 700mb heights are
increasing. This morning we were around 275 decameter heights but
by Wednesday afternoon we will be around 285 decameters. This will
correlate to around a 10C to 15C increase in temperatures at
850mb, resulting in surface temperatures above zero each
afternoon after Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected
with this increase in temperatures.

On the North Slope, there will be gradually improving conditions
as winds weaken west of Point Thomson this afternoon and evening,
and from Point Thomson to Kaktovik tomorrow evening. This is
because a 1004mb surface low over the Canadian Archipelago is
weakening while a surface high over the Chukchi Sea moves east. A
weak low then moves over the Chukchi Sea on Thursday and this may
support pockets of light snow from Point Hope to Utqiagvik east to
Umiat Thursday night through Friday. Accumulations do not look to
be more than an inch or 2 and winds will be light, therefore
little to no blowing snow is expected. Temperatures will remain
chilly but be slightly milder tomorrow through Friday with highs
in the single digits on either side of zero and lows in the teens
and 20s below zero. Coldest temperatures will be east of
Utqiagvik.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Areas of light snow and snow showers are possible along the North
Slope this weekend with light winds through Sunday morning. West winds
may strengthen Sunday midday/afternoon, especially along the
Eastern Arctic Coast resulting in areas of blowing snow, but the
wind doesn`t look to be as strong as recent wind events. There is
some uncertainty with this as models differ in the strength and
positioning of a high and low pressure in the Arctic. Otherwise,
the Interior remains mostly dry and cold through the weekend with
a chance for snow early next week. After the brief warm up to near
average later this week, the West Coast looks to cool back down
and be unseasonably cold once again, especially on Sunday and
into early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-808-809-852-853-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-851-854-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
&&

$$

Bianco