730
FXAK69 PAFG 301503
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
703 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Updated synopsis, key messages, and extended discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, some gusty conditions will
continue across parts of the Eastern Interior but should end by
this evening. A coastal system currently over the Bering Sea is
bringing rain and showers to the Lower Yukon Valley and Norton
Sound coastlines. As it approaches the mainland, this rain will
spread both north and east, with additional rain falling across
most of Western Alaska through early next week. South winds will
also increase across the coast. Rain with this system will spread
into the Central and Eastern Interior and across the North SLope
from early to mid next week. A warming trend is expected across
Northern Alaska through the weekend, with highs increasing into
the mid 60s and 70s near the eastern border and the mid to 50s to
mid 60s in Western Alaska and on the North Slope by Monday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

 - In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, cool conditions with
   breezy west-southwest winds will continue across the White
   Mountains and Yukon Flats before diminishing by late this
   evening.

 - While some areas of clearing are likely in spots this morning
   and near the eastern border, skies will be mostly cloudy
   through the weekend, with light rain showers moving through
   Saturday night and Sunday.

 - General warming is likely through Monday, with most of the
   Eastern Interior rising into the 60s and 70s. While the Central
   Interior will still warm by several degrees, it will be cooler
   in the upper 50s to around 60 Monday, with showery weather
   expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...

 - A system moving in from the Bering is currently bringing an
   area of rain and showers to the Lower Yukon Valley and coastal
   areas of Norton Sound. This rain will spread northeast across
   Western Alaska through the weekend.

 - Rainfall in the Western Interior between now and Monday morning
   will range from a few tenths of an inch in the Middle Yukon
   Valley to over an inch in the Lower Yukon Valley, with higher
   totals over the high terrain. Most coastal areas except the
   northern Seward Peninsula could see around or over half an
   inch, although parts of the southern Seward Peninsula (mostly
   at elevation) could see over 2 inches.

 - The coastal system will bring sustained southerly winds to the
   coast through early next week, with coastlines seeing winds
   of around 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

 - Spotty wet snow showers will continue this morning on the North
   Slope and Arctic coastline. Accumulations are not likely due to
   warm ground temperatures and air temperatures that are only
   near or slightly above freezing, and any snow should end by
   later this morning as temperatures rise.

 - Warmer temperatures are expected today across the North Slope,
   with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Further warming will bring
   highs into the lower to mid 50s Sunday and the upper 50s to
   mid 60s early next week.

 - West winds up to 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, will continue
   on the eastern Arctic Coast through this evening before
   diminishing as a low pressure area moves offshore. Winds of 20
   to 30 mph will also occur from west of Point Thomson to Nuiqsut
   during this time frame.

&&


EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Wet and cloudy conditions will continue across Northern Alaska in
the extended time frame. Rainfall totals from now through
Wednesday morning should widely be around or over an inch across
the West Coast and Western Interior, with lower totals in the
Central Interior. Continuing south winds over the West Coast from
a coastal system should fall off by Tuesday night, with generally
showery weather there and in the Western Interior through late
week. Near to somewhat warmer than normal weather will continue
during this same time frame across Northern Alaska, with the
warmest conditions near the eastern border with ridging aloft
poking into the area from over Canada.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025/

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is currently traversing the eastern half of
northern Alaska and is dragging a surface cold front along with
it. The front was located across the Eastern Interior as of early
this afternoon and is expected to cross into northwestern Canada
this evening. In the wake of this front a 14 to 16 millibar
pressure gradient is taking shape between the surface low near the
northeast Arctic coastline and higher pressure developing near
the Alaska Range. We expect to see gusty west and southwest winds
from the central interior into Fortymile Country this evening and
into the overnight hours. Thus a wind advisory has been posted to
reflect these stronger winds.

Meanwhile overnight will bring an eventual end to the steady
precipitation that has been occurring the past several days. Most
areas should dry out in the post frontal environment tonight and
Saturday with the exception of the Yukon Delta where the next
scheduled storm system will start to push rainfall ashore as early
as Saturday afternoon.

The weekend will feature a building ridge over the eastern half of
the region with troughing regaining a foothold over the west.
Expect temperatures Saturday to run 5 to 8 degrees cooler than
normal as most areas will see only limited sunshine with high
level moisture streaming back over the area thanks to increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the next developing storm system.
As low pressure moves into the southwest Bering another round of
healthy moisture transport will result in additional rainfall
over the west coast and the western interior Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain at a minimum as wet conditions and
limited fuel availability highlight most of the region. The upper
Tanana Valley remains the exception as drier conditions will
persist through the weekend and into early next week. However fuel
availability is limited and expected to remain that way.

HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning for areas
surrounding the Noatak, Kobuk, and Koyukuk rivers. Flood
advisories remain in effect for Kobuk and the Sanctuary River in
Denali National Park as water levels remain high at both locations.
At Allakaket, a flood warning remains in place as the Koyukuk
River is expected to now crest overnight into Saturday morning.

Elsehwere hydrologic outlooks are in place for rivers and streams
in and around Denali National Park as well as along the Southern
slopes of the Brooks range and throughout the western interior due
to recent heavy rains.

Lighter rainfall will continue in the Western Interior and
especially the higher elevations of the Western Brooks Range where
up to 1.25" of rain is possible along the south facing slopes
through tonight. Additional rainfall is expected late this
weekend into early next week, but early forecast information
indicates lighter rainfall amounts than what fell earlier this
week.

Recent heavy rainfall will allow elevated water levels to persist
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro information at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

There is the potential for some high surf along the southern
Seward Peninsula coast as well as the Yukon Delta Coast by Monday
as an area of low pressure stall over the western Bering Sea. This
system will be weakening with time, so no major coastal impacts
are expected at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

DS