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FXAK69 PAFG 071347
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
547 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Broken to isolated clouds and isolated showers expected across
  the Interior Monday. Showers become more widespread Tuesday
  morning as a front moves across the Interior from the
  Kuskokwim Valley.

- Gap winds expected to increase through the Alaska Range late
  Monday and last through early Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts
  are expected to be between 35 and 45 mph.

- West to southwest winds pick up across the Interior, behind
  the front, by Wednesday morning. Wind gusts are expected to
  be between 25 and 35 mph. The strongest winds are expected at
  higher elevations.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday night are expected to be
  around 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Locally higher amounts are
  possible through the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers expected to continue across the West Coast
  throughout the week. A brief lull in precipitation is
  possible Tuesday night between systems.

- Southwest winds are expected to pick up on Wednesday ahead of
  a strong low and atmospheric river moving into Western Alaska
  late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday. This system will
  bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with the
  potential for high surf and minor coastal flooding.

- A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Golovin for potential
  water levels to 4 to 6 feet above high tides around the end of
  the week.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday night are expected to be
  around 0.25 to 0.60 inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated showers possible across the North Slope on Monday.
  Another round of precipitation moves in Tuesday from W to E.
  Precipitation will mostly fall as rain, elevations above 3000
  feet will see precipitation fall as snow.

- South/southwest winds pick up across the North Slope Wednesday
  night into Thursday. Strongest winds are expected across the
  NW Arctic Coast. Winds peak Thursday afternoon with potential
  gusts between 45 and 55 mph.

- With onshore flow around Point Hope, there will be the
  potential for high surf and minor erosion around the end of
  the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery conditions are expected to continue across much of
Northern Alaska as a series of shortwaves and fronts move
across the area. Precipitation on Monday will be mostly confined
to the West Coast as a surface low moves north over along the
coast. Showers spread into the Interior late Monday night into
Tuesday as a front moves NE from the Lower Kuskokwim. Attention
turns to a low moving from the Bering into Siberia by mid-week,
bringing another round of widespread rain and gusty southwest
winds across the West Coast. Prolonged southwest winds across
the Bering could result in high surf and minor coastal flooding
potential by the end of the week. A Coastal Flood Watch is
currently in effect for Golovin for potential water level rises
to 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing continues to dominate over Western Alaska for
the start of the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this
morning shows the triple point weakening over the central
Bering. Meanwhile, another shortwave continues to move westerly
along the Aleutians, trying to take over as the "main low" in
the broad troughing. Looking inland, most of northern Alaska is
blanketed with mid to low level clouds. This is mainly due to
southerly flow that has been set up aloft, which is allowing for
an influx of moisture and embedded shortwaves.

Out ahead of the trough is a weaker shortwave that will continue
to shift a weak warm front from the SW to the NE on Monday. In
addition, ridging will continue to develop out over the Western
Bering. This will cause the trough to shift east, breaking down
the subtle ridging that was set up over the eastern portions of
the Interior. As this progresses, energy from the weakening
triple point will get wrapped back around the newly formed
upper-level low. This will allow the trough to hold its strength
as it progresses eastward. All of this will allow for the
scattered to widespread showers to continue across much of
Northern Alaska through the mid-week. As the trough axis moves
over south-central Alaska, this will set up a brief period of
marginal, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes.

By early Wednesday, attention turns to another shortwave moving
E/SE from the Chukchi ahead of the building ridge in the Bering.
This is the point in the forecast period where models begin to
diverge the most. The disagreement is on how for south the
shortwave will be able to progress. With pattern recognition,
models have a tendency to break down ridges much quicker than
what actually happens. That being said, the EC is currently the
least aggressive with the southerly push of this shortwave.
Other models, such as the GFS and Canadian, have the shortwave
pushing into the building ridge much more quickly. This can be
seen in 850mb temperatures as the EC is showing temperatures
below freezing to remain situated over the Brooks Range. While
the others have temperatures below freezing across much of the
North Slope and the Interior by Wednesday night. What this
means for the forecast, a decent spread can be seen in minimum
temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday along with a
variation in precipitation probabilities. In addition, this will
affect where the associated surface low sets up over the
Interior, if any, depending on which solution comes to fruition.
This would then play a role in how strong surface winds are
across the Interior on Wednesday.

With this ongoing, a stacked 990mb low is looking to set up
over Siberia late Wednesday night. The associated warm front,
with a NW-SE orientation, will move over Seward Peninsula
sometime Wednesday night. Behind this front, a stacked column of
southwesterly flow will begin to move in over the Bering. This
has the potential to set up a prolonged period of strong SW
winds across the Bering, which could lead to coastal concerns.
More on this in the Long Term and Coastal Hazard sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the variations in ridge strength and progression seen from
the models in the short term, a good bit of uncertainty remains
in place for the forecast over the Interior. However, there is
much better agreement with the pattern over the West Coast.

Attention will remain focused on the strong low over Siberia and
its associated fronts. With the warm front already passed, a
widespread uptick in surface winds can be expected to peak
across much of the West Coast around early Thursday morning. Max
southwesterly wind gusts are expected to remain offshore,
peaking around 50 to 60 mph. Winds will also pick up across the
Interior and North Slope, but they are not expected to be as
strong. The winds are looking to weaken late Thursday night into
Friday. These speeds and directions could pose a concern for
some coastal locations by the end of the week. More on this in
the Coastal Hazard section.

In addition to the strong winds, southwesterly flow is looking
to continue across much of Western Alaska. Models are showing
the potential for the low to tap into a swath of tropical
moisture, bringing in another round of heavy rainfall. With this
setup, the heaviest rainfall can be expected on the south and
southwest slopes of higher terrain with the assistance of
upslope flow. In these areas, QPF totals are currently ranging
to be between 1" and 2" Thursday through early Saturday.

As the weekend continues, a strong ridge will continue to linger
in the North Pacific. With that said, as a few shortwaves move
east, from Siberia, this will continue to prolong the westerly
flow aloft across Northern Alaska. There is a chance for strong
westerly winds to form over the Arctic Coast as the low, that
was previously over Siberia, has a chance to strengthen as it
moves over the Beaufort by the mid weekend.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...
With confidence for a strong low, around 980mb, to form
sometime mid to late week over NE Siberia, a Coastal Flood Watch
has been issued for Golovin. Given the overall positioning and
the current trajectory for the low, elevated water levels of 4
to 6 ft above the normal high tide line is possible around
Golovin. With this low expected to bring a prolonged period of
sustain winds above 30 mph, there is a chance for coastal areas
around the Norton Sound and northern Kotzebue Sound to see high
surf conditions. Some uncertainly remains in place. With that
said, we will continue to monitor this closely over the next
couple of days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively warm and dry conditions are expected Monday ahead of yet
another round of widespread wetting rains across the region late
Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Temperatures cool with
the rain causing highs to drop from the 60s in the Southern and
Eastern Interior back into the 50s by Tuesday. A very brief gap in
wet weather will follow late Wednesday before the next round of
precipitation reaches the West Coast Wednesday night. Broad
southwesterly flow is expected to allow precipitation to reach deep
into the Interior with this latter system, although the mountains
are expected to block much of what may reach the Southeastern
Interior.

The Southeastern Interior remains the focal point for any remaining
fire weather concerns as it is not expected to see nearly as much
rain keeping wetting rain chances low. Additionally a period of
southerly flow over the Alaska Range is expected Monday night which
will aid in keeping the area dry. These gap winds are expected to be
most prominent through Isabel Pass with gusts reaching into the
upper 40 mph range. Elsewhere lesser winds remain possible with
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible through other Alaska Range
passes. High temperatures for this region Monday are expected to be
in the mid 60s with minimum RH values in the 40s. Temperatures cool
Tuesday through Thursday as highs fall into the 50s which will also
bring minimum RHs up above 50.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No change from the previous discussion.
Rainfall totals through the first half of the week will be low
enough that flooding concerns are not anticipated. Atmospheric
river moisture will build in to finish out the week from the
Bering Sea, which will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ822.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Twombly
COASTAL........Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......MacKay