834
FXAK69 PAFG 160014
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 PM AKDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front continues to move east through Saturday,
bringing locally heavy rain east of Fairbanks. The west coast will
see light rain Saturday afternoon as another cold front moves
onshore. Mixed rain and snow on the North Slope will taper off
overnight Friday into Saturday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain tapers off late Friday night for the Fairbanks area, with
  just a few showers Saturday and a mostly dry Sunday.

- A period of strong gusty winds up to 35 mph from the northwest is
  expected in the Upper Tanana Valley and through Isabel Pass
  through Saturday.

- Rain continues east of Fairbanks through Saturday, then tapers
  off on Sunday. Total amounts will be 0.25"-1.25".

- Highs will be mainly in the 50s through Saturday, with slight
  warming on Sunday. Next week will be in the mid 60s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Seasonally cool temperatures and mild weather are expected the
  rest of this week into the weekend, with highs in the 50s and
  lower 60s.

- The next chance for precipitation will be Saturday afternoon and
  evening across the whole coast as another cold front moves
  onshore. Rainfall amounts will be much lighter than this recent
  system with amounts generally less than 0.1". Models have
  weakened this feature in the last 24 hours and we have lowered
  rainfall amounts in the forecast.

- Winds remain mostly from the west at 15 mph or less.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Mixed rain and snow along the coast through Saturday morning,
  then becoming all rain Saturday morning and tapering off by the
  afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm behind the end-of-week system, with highs
  in the 50s returning for next week.

- Northwest winds switch to southerly late Friday night before
  becoming northwesterly again with the next frontal system early
  Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A cold front stretches north
to south across the eastern Interior. It will continue to move
east, though the precipitation will become enhanced by energy
moving northwest from a low in the Gulf of Alaska. This
precipitation will make it to near Fairbanks overnight Friday into
Saturday, though considerable uncertainty remains if it will
actually reach Fairbanks. For now, we will have 3 hours of likely
rain from midnight to 3am in the forecast. Another cold front will
reach the West Coast late Saturday night, bringing showers. A
building ridge over the Bering Sea will keep temperatures moderate
across the area as well as across the North Slope. An Arctic
trough will drop south on Sunday and early Monday, enhancing
precipitation on the North Slope. This looks to likely move south
to the Central and Eastern Interior early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wetting rains have reached the Upper Tanana Valley
this afternoon, providing much needed rainfall to a remaining dry
area of the state. There are minimal fire weather concerns. There
will be some relative drying in the Central Interior on Sunday
and the Eastern Interior of Monday, but another front bringing
abundant rainfall looks to arrive early in the week. No chances
for thunderstorms either.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect slight rises on the Fortymile, Goodpaster, Chena,
and Salcha Rivers through the weekend, but water levels there
remain quite low.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Cool and wet weather doesn`t seem to be
ending anytime soon across much of our area. A large upper level
trough continues to sit over the Arctic bringing unsettled weather
and periods of strong westerly winds across the North Slope
through Tuesday. For the rest of the state, a low pressure system
in the Gulf of Alaska and weak ridging centered over southwest
Alaska will bring continued scattered showers and cooler
temperatures to both the West Coast and Interior through next
week. By late next week, the Arctic trough drops further south,
strengthening southwest flow across the state, causing another
wave of heavy rainfall for areas across the West Coast and parts
of the Interior by next weekend. As for the North Slope, light
snowfall is possible as temperatures continue to remain cool and
slightly below seasonable norms. Models aren`t in good agreement
right now regarding the timing for when this next wave will
arrive, but we are monitoring conditions for any significant
hazards that may arise. It looks like the focus of the next 10
days will be rainfall amounts and rising river levels across the
area, but timing and specific locations remain highly uncertain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&

$$

Chriest
Extended: Santiago