


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
238 FXAK69 PAFG 062356 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Ridge break down is underway across Northern Alaska today (Sunday) and will be replaced by troughing by Monday night as an Arctic trough interacts with a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. Hot and dry weather supports continued fire activity across the northern interior on Sunday as shower and thunderstorm chances spread north through Monday. Heat Advisories continue through 10 PM Sunday mainly north of the Yukon River and a Red Flag Warning was issued across the northern interior for Monday afternoon and evening for scattered to numerous thunderstorms containing frequent lightning. By Tuesday, conditions are much cooler and cloudier across the entire area with numerous rain showers. Rainfall amounts of 0.5"-1.0" are expected to be widespread across the east-central interior by Wednesday evening. Heavier amounts of 1.0"-1.5" are expected across the southern Interior with locally heavier amounts up to 2.0" where showers and thunderstorms are most persistent. Heavier amounts are also possible northeast of Arctic Village where snow mixes in on Tuesday and several inches may accumulate by Wednesday evening at elevations above 2500ft. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Heat Advisories expire 10 PM Sunday night with one more warm night in store especially north of the Yukon River, before an approaching cold front brings increasing clouds and rain chances. - A Red Flag Warning was issued for the north central interior Monday afternoon and evening due to numerous thunderstorms capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds that may start new fires and/or spread existing fires. - High temperatures cool each day through Wednesday as a cooler air mass and increasing cloudiness and rain chances spread across the interior bringing welcome relief from the heat and smoke. West Coast and Western Interior... - Hot, and dry conditions continue through Monday, especially across the NW Interior, Middle Yukon Valley, and the Koyukuk Valley. - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Western Interior, with the most coverage over the Nulato Hills and Kobuk Valley on Sunday. Strong thunderstorms are possible along the Middle Yukon and Koyukuk Valleys Monday afternoon with frequent lightning and gusty winds that may start new fires or spread fire activity. - Cooler but still dry pattern behind a cold front that tracks southeast across the area on Monday and brings increasing north winds along the coast. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Hot and dry inland from the coast and in the Brooks Range with temperatures mainly in the 70s Sunday afternoon with much cooler temps mainly in the 50s on Monday. - Even colder weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with snow chances starting over the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday then spreading west on including Atigun Pass Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...The well-organized high pressure ridge over the Central Arctic Coast weakens as a Gulf of Alaska low phases with an Arctic trough digging south toward the Central Arctic Coast. Moisture wraps around the low and into the Interior from the east resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances along and ahead of a cold front dropping south Monday night into Tuesday. Much colder 850 mb temps accompany the Arctic trough with potential for near to below freezing temperatures and snowfall beginning over the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday and spreading west including Atigun Pass Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models have stabilized with a broad swath of 0.5"-1.0" of rainfall across the eastern interior extending west along the Alaska Range, but continue to increase amounts across the south-central including the Fairbanks area where ensemble means have localized amounts over 2". This rainfall includes a showery pattern supported by southwest flow following the cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER...Two areas of convection are actively developing this afternoon. The first area is across the south-central interior near the Alaska Range, extending east-northeast across the uplands between the Yukon and Tanana Valleys. The second area is primarily along the Brooks Range, especially farther west roughly between Noatak and Atigun Pass. While development has not yet occurred, a third area in the vicinity of the Nulato Hills is possible later this evening. Model soundings indicate PWATs near 1", ample CAPE and even DCAPE near 600 J/Kg. The biggest threat with these storms will be strong outflow winds. Thunderstorms that do form will produce rainfall, and will not be stationary. On Monday, the thunderstorm threat becomes focused along and ahead of the cold front dropping southeast across the interior. More CAPE is available Monday afternoon that when combined with stronger synoptic forcing indicates potential for numerous thunderstorms capable of frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds. The favorable thunderstorm environment triggered issuance of a red flag warning across the north-central interior for thunderstorm activity given receptive fuels. Precipitation is expected to be spotty in nature until Monday evening when the cold front sweep southeast across the east-central Interior Monday night and Tuesday. Substantially cooler temperatures and higher RH values are expected behind the front. Models have stabilized with a broad swath of 0.5"-1.0" of rainfall across the eastern interior extending west along the Alaska Range, but continue to increase amounts across the south-central including the Fairbanks area where ensemble means have localized amounts over 2". This rainfall includes a showery pattern supported by southwest flow following the cold front. Areas northwest of Tanana are likely to see very little precip this coming week with mostly sunny skies resulting in continued drying. && .HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... Temperatures remain well below normal through the extended period with the showery southwest flow regime waning Thursday into Friday. Areas northwest of Tanana look to see little precip next week while areas south and east can expect 1 to 2 inches total through next week. Northwest flow aloft spreads across northern Alaska late this week and through the weekend allowing for drying and continued cool temperatures. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-928-931-932. Heat Advisory for AKZ806>809-813-814-816-818-819-822-823-828-829- 831>833-846. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. && $$