160
FXAK69 PAFG 092302
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Much needed rains continue across the eastern Interior
through tonight before conditions dry out Thursday and a warming
and drying trend commences through the weekend. Warmer valley
locations may hit 80 by Sunday. The west coast and northwest
interior remain clear with north winds, decreasing Thursday before
warming and drying commence there as well. The North Slope and
Brooks Range saw snow overnight last night and this morning and
west winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph tonight and persist
across the eastern Arctic coast through Friday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rainfall totals from 2pm Tuesday through 2pm Wednesday range
  from about 0.1" across the Fortymile to around 0.5" in the
  Fairbanks area and Parks Highway Corridor to 0.75"-1" and even
  slightly more in spots over the White Mountains. Areas near the
  Alaska Range received less while the northern Interior ranged
  from 0.25"-0.75". Very little precipitation west of Tanana.

- Today should be the coolest day this week as the cool air mass
  settles in with clouds and rain preventing much surface heating,
  but clearing skies are expected Thursday evening into Friday
  allowing for more moderation in temperatures.

- Very comfortable weather expected late Friday with highs around
  70F and lows around 50F

- Warming trend is expected to continue through the weekend with
  highs possibly as high as 80 F by Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Blustery north to northwest winds continue along the West Coast
  and northwestern interior and should diminish by Wednesday
  night.

- An unseasonably dry air mass moves across northern portions of
  the Western Interior where min RH values possibly dipping below
  30% by Thursday when light winds allow for deep mixing.

- A closed low will break off from the Arctic trough and move over
  the northern Seward Peninsula late Thursday. This will bring a
  slight chance of rain but mainly just cloud cover.

- Warming and drying trend into the weekend with highs away from
  the coast in the low to mid 70s by Friday and near 80 by Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow fell as far south as Chandalar Shelf and Arctic Village
  Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Any light snow still
  falling should taper off this evening.

- Low stratus and areas of primarily `nocturnal` fog continue
  along the Arctic Coast through Wednesday with some clearing from
  east to west possible Wednesday night and Thursday, especially
  for locations east of Nuiqsut.

- Much below normal temperatures continue through today with
  gradual moderation through the weekend and above normal
  temperatures returning Sunday into early next week.

- West winds increase along the coast Wednesday night into
  Thursday to 20 to 25 mph and persist across the eastern Arctic
  coast through Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Models show little run to run
change through the near term and are in good agreement on
precipitation placement and amounts. Higher resolution models show
precipitation developing along a more narrow band than the global
models across the Interior through tonight, and will try to
reflect that in the PoP forecast. The cold front ahead of the
Arctic trough running into Gulf of Alaska moisture over the
Interior is the focal point for this rainfall. The trough becomes
a closed low over the lower Kobuk Valley as southerly flow
weakens the surface cold front through the day on Thursday.
Models have struggled with this closed low but have come into
better agreement on moving it west just north of the Seward
Peninsula and keeping the surface mostly dry with just some cloud
cover. Given how dry the surface is under postfrontal conditions
in the area and the speed of this upper low feature, have
reflected low PoPs in the forecast with this feature.

As this feature moves west, ridging builds over all of Northern
Alaska from the northwest, eventually becoming a fairly
progressive omega block by Saturday night with the ridge centered
over Alaska. Models are showing this ridge of high pressure
lingering longer than was indicated yesterday. Have trended the
forecast in this direction. See extended forecast discussion for
more.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The northwestern portion of the state from Kotzebue Sound
east towards Kobuk continue to hold the highest fire danger, in
part from the dry, blustery north winds that have impacted the
region. For the majority of the rest of the area, wetting rains
have brought some relief to fires, more so in the Fairbanks area.
We are expecting a decent surge of rain through the central
interior today, with widespread light rain Thursday. With that
said, the Tanana Valley in the southeast portion of the interior
will hold a dry pocket with fuels still receptive for fire growth.
Over the weekend, expect temperatures to start to climb back up
into the upper 70s, RH values to diminish back to critical values,
and fire activity to ramp back up.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect moderate rises across the Chena, Salcha, and
Chatanika Basins, but there are no concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Warmer and drier conditions continue across
the Interior Saturday as a ridge continues to build over the
Interior. A weak upper level low sits over the Aleutians as the
ridge builds. Solutions begin to diverge further Monday into
Tuesday as several models, including the GFS, attempt to push the
low into the Gulf of Alaska whereas others, including the
Canadian, push the low south into the Northern Pacific. Should the
former happen, ridge breakdown will accelerate allowing cooler,
wetter, stormier conditions into the Interior. Should the latter
happen, the ridge will remain in place with continuous warm,
drier, weather through the beginning of next week for the
Interior. Our forecast is leaning more towards the latter solution
allowing the ridge to build in longer and allow the warmer and
drier weekend to last into the start of next week. Confidence is
fairly low on any particular solution after Monday however.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803>805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Chriest/Park (fire)/Stokes (extended)