238
FXAK69 PAFG 062356
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge break down is underway across Northern Alaska
today (Sunday) and will be replaced by troughing by Monday night as
an Arctic trough interacts with a closed low over the Gulf of
Alaska. Hot and dry weather supports continued fire activity across
the northern interior on Sunday as shower and thunderstorm chances
spread north through Monday. Heat Advisories continue through 10 PM
Sunday mainly north of the Yukon River and a Red Flag Warning was
issued across the northern interior for Monday afternoon and evening
for scattered to numerous thunderstorms containing frequent
lightning. By Tuesday, conditions are much cooler and cloudier
across the entire area with numerous rain showers. Rainfall amounts
of 0.5"-1.0" are expected to be widespread across the east-central
interior by Wednesday evening. Heavier amounts of 1.0"-1.5" are
expected across the southern Interior with locally heavier amounts
up to 2.0" where showers and thunderstorms are most persistent.
Heavier amounts are also possible northeast of Arctic Village where
snow mixes in on Tuesday and several inches may accumulate by
Wednesday evening at elevations above 2500ft.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Heat Advisories expire 10 PM Sunday night with one more warm night
in store especially north of the Yukon River, before an approaching
cold front brings increasing clouds and rain chances.

- A Red Flag Warning was issued for the north central interior
  Monday afternoon and evening due to numerous thunderstorms
  capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds that may start
  new fires and/or spread existing fires.

- High temperatures cool each day through Wednesday as a cooler air
mass and increasing cloudiness and rain chances spread across the
interior bringing welcome relief from the heat and smoke.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Hot, and dry conditions continue through Monday, especially across
the NW Interior, Middle Yukon Valley, and the Koyukuk Valley.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Western
Interior, with the most coverage over the Nulato Hills and Kobuk
Valley on Sunday. Strong thunderstorms are possible along the Middle
Yukon and Koyukuk Valleys Monday afternoon with frequent lightning
and gusty winds that may start new fires or spread fire activity.

- Cooler but still dry pattern behind a cold front that tracks
southeast across the area on Monday and brings increasing north
winds along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Hot and dry inland from the coast and in the Brooks Range with
temperatures mainly in the 70s Sunday afternoon with much cooler
temps mainly in the 50s on Monday.

- Even colder weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with snow
chances starting over the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday then
spreading west on including Atigun Pass Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...The well-organized high pressure
ridge over the Central Arctic Coast weakens as a Gulf of Alaska low
phases with an Arctic trough digging south toward the Central Arctic
Coast. Moisture wraps around the low and into the Interior from the
east resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances along
and ahead of a cold front dropping south Monday night into Tuesday.
Much colder 850 mb temps accompany the Arctic trough with potential
for near to below freezing temperatures and snowfall beginning over
the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday and spreading west including
Atigun Pass Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models have stabilized
with a broad swath of 0.5"-1.0" of rainfall across the eastern
interior extending west along the Alaska Range, but continue to
increase amounts across the south-central including the Fairbanks
area where ensemble means have localized amounts over 2". This
rainfall includes a showery pattern supported by southwest flow
following the cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Two areas of convection are actively developing
this afternoon. The first area is across the south-central interior
near the Alaska Range, extending east-northeast across the uplands
between the Yukon and Tanana Valleys. The second area is primarily
along the Brooks Range, especially farther west roughly between
Noatak and Atigun Pass. While development has not yet occurred, a
third area in the vicinity of the Nulato Hills is possible later
this evening. Model soundings indicate PWATs near 1", ample CAPE
and even DCAPE near 600 J/Kg. The biggest threat with these storms
will be strong outflow winds. Thunderstorms that do form will
produce rainfall, and will not be stationary. On Monday, the
thunderstorm threat becomes focused along and ahead of the cold
front dropping southeast across the interior. More CAPE is
available Monday afternoon that when combined with stronger
synoptic forcing indicates potential for numerous thunderstorms
capable of frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds. The
favorable thunderstorm environment triggered issuance of a red
flag warning across the north-central interior for thunderstorm
activity given receptive fuels.

Precipitation is expected to be spotty in nature until Monday
evening when the cold front sweep southeast across the east-central
Interior Monday night and Tuesday. Substantially cooler temperatures
and higher RH values are expected behind the front. Models have
stabilized with a broad swath of 0.5"-1.0" of rainfall across the
eastern interior extending west along the Alaska Range, but
continue to increase amounts across the south-central including
the Fairbanks area where ensemble means have localized amounts
over 2". This rainfall includes a showery pattern supported by
southwest flow following the cold front. Areas northwest of Tanana
are likely to see very little precip this coming week with mostly
sunny skies resulting in continued drying.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Temperatures remain well below normal through the extended period
with the showery southwest flow regime waning Thursday into Friday.
Areas northwest of Tanana look to see little precip next week while
areas south and east can expect 1 to 2 inches total through next
week. Northwest flow aloft spreads across northern Alaska late this
week and through the weekend allowing for drying and continued cool
temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-928-931-932.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ806>809-813-814-816-818-819-822-823-828-829-
     831>833-846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$