188
FXAK69 PAFG 102315
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Overall, quiet weather persists today but it gets a little more
active with thunderstorm potential increasing in the Interior
Thursday and Friday. A warming trend begins today across Northern
Alaska with near to above normal temperatures expected through
the weekend. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring anomalously
high moisture to the Interior next week with chances for heavy
rain showers.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A beautiful Wednesday and Thursday afternoon for most spots.
  Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana
  Valley/Fortymile on Wednesday and Thursday, with Minchumina and
  Tanana included Thursday.

- Scattered wet thunderstorms likely on Friday across most of the
  Interior and Alaska Range.

- A warming trend with highs in the 60s to near 70 this afternoon,
  then increasing into the low to mid 70s by Saturday. Relative
  humidity will be as low as 20-25%. Warmest and driest spots will
  be in the valleys.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A picture perfect afternoon in the Interior with warming
  temperatures and sunny skies. Partly to mostly cloudy along the
  coast with a couple of showers near the Seward Peninsula.

- Dry in the Interior outside of an isolated shower or storm near
  McGrath/Western AK Range Thursday and Friday afternoon.

- Temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s in the Interior with 50s
  and 60s along the coast by the weekend.

- Breezy along the coast this afternoon with gusts up to 20-30 mph
  Thursday afternoon, strongest in the Bering Strait Region. Winds
  subside on Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Pretty quiet weather overall with warming temperatures
  everywhere. Expect highs largely in the 40s along the coast,
  50s/60s in the Arctic Plains and 60s in the Brooks Range.

- Mostly dry conditions, but isolated rain/snow showers return to
  the NW Arctic Coast and Brooks Range by Thursday afternoon then
  spread east on Friday.

- More numerous showers likely Friday afternoon in the Central and
  Eastern Brooks Range with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A bit of a messy upper level map right now with a degrading trough
over the Interior as ridging builds in. A ridge over the Bering
and Western Canada will phase as we move through Thursday and
Friday allowing for warmer temperatures across most of Northern
Alaska. Thursday afternoon there will be a shortwave trough moving
over the ridge from west to east. This will be the forcing
mechanism for isolated thunderstorms from McGrath to Tanana. On
Friday, the Central and Eastern Interior as well as Brooks Range
will be unstable enough for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
They will develop over the higher terrain during the late
morning/early afternoon, then drift into the valleys later in the
afternoon and evening. These storms will be slow moving from west
to east since the steering flow is only about 10 to 15kt. Surface
based CAPE values are relatively low, in the order of 250 to 500
J/Kg, but there is dry air aloft, so gusty wind and small hail are
likely with the strongest storms. Lightning will be intermittent,
but the strongest storms may come with frequent lightning, though
frequent lightning will not occur everywhere. Given that there is
little to no shear, we do not expect any long lived thunderstorm
activity prior to the frontal passage. However, with the shortwave
moving across the area, a line of thunderstorms is possible
Friday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will linger through the
night in the Eastern Interior Friday night with scattered
thunderstorms likely again Saturday afternoon along the AlCan
Border while the remainder of Northern Alaska remains mostly dry
and warm.

Elsewhere along the North Slope and West Coast, the weather will
also undergo a warming trend through the weekend with high
temperatures near or above normal. Precipitation chances will
remain low besides in the Western North Slope/Brooks Range
Thursday afternoon when rain/snow showers move into the area.
Precipitation amounts will remain low and there`s a chance most
spots outside of the Brooks Range stay dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No major concerns Wednesday afternoon, but the Interior will be
warming and drying after a wet beginning to the week. The driest
spots will be in Western/Central Interior valleys with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 and RHs largely in the
20s. By Thursday afternoon, RHs will increase into the 30-40%
range over the Western Interior valleys will sticking in the
20-30% range in the Central/Eastern Interior. The uptick in the
Western Interior moisture will help trigger showers and isolated
thunderstorms from McGrath to the Western AK Range and up to
Tanana. In the Eastern Interior, winds will increase slightly to
around 20 mph from the southwest over the Yukon Flats making for
near critical fire weather conditions, but critical fire weather
danger is not expected. Moving forward, the larger thunderstorm
day will be on Friday as scattered thunderstorms are expected over
move of the Central/Eastern Interior as a front moves from west
to east. Each of these thunderstorms will be wet and anywhere with
multiple storms will likely get wetting rain. Gusty winds and
small hail are also possible with the strongest storms. Frequent
lightning is not anticipated to be widespread, but the strongest
storms may come with frequent lightning. Nonetheless, winds will
continue Friday afternoon in the Yukon Flats with an increase in
the White Mountains to around 20 mph as well. Near critical fire
weather conditions are possible again in the Yukon Flats.
Otherwise, Saturday will be warm and dry across the board with
widespread temperatures in the 70s and min RHs in the 20s.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once more along the AlCan
Border Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No updates since the previous discussion. Unless there is a
significant change, the next update will come on Friday 6/12/26.

Satellite imagery indicates the Sag River has broken up close to
the mouth with no updates on the Kuparuk given the lack of clear
satellite imagery. The Colville has broken up near Nuiqsut and
potentially farther downstream but there are 2 ice jams at
Horseshoe Bend and Ocean Point. Even with the ice jams, water has
remained relatively low.

Heading into the end of the week, we`ll see temperatures rise into
the 50s/60s in the Brooks Range and 40s/50s on the North Slope.
Low temperatures will be above freezing later this week with the
Brooks Range only dropping into the 40s while the North Slope
remains in the mid 30s. The increase in temperatures along with
the recent snowfall may result in rapid river rises by this
weekend but there is high uncertainty in any potential flooding
impacts.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Sunday through Midweek

The overall pattern next week favors a transition toward wetter and
more unsettled conditions as low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska
and western Arctic interacts with persistent ridging over Western
Canada. This setup favors strengthening southerly flow across much
of mainland Alaska, with the strongest winds expected through the
Alaska Range passes with gusts exceeding 50 mph possible. These gap
winds may extend into portions of the Tanana Valley, producing
localized downsloped warming and drying in areas like Delta
Junction. At the same time, Gulf moisture will continue to spread
northward into the Interior, leading to increased shower coverage
across portions of the Alaska Range, Central, and Western Interior
while minimum relative humidities and overnight recoveries generally
improve.

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the larger-scale pattern
but continues to show uncertainty regarding the timing and track of
several embedded disturbances moving through the flow. These
differences will ultimately determine where the greatest shower
coverage develops and whether any thunderstorm activity persists
into early next week. Current guidance favors a wetter pattern
overall, with PWAT values possibly exceeding 1 inch, though
confidence remains lower in the exact placement and intensity of
precipitation. Northern Alaska may remain somewhat less impacted
depending on how far north the deeper moisture can advance, while
much of the Interior and West Coast are expected to experience
periodic showers into midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-806-817-854.
&&

$$

Bianco
Extended Discussion...Cruz