673
FXAK69 PAFG 141241
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 AM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and gusty conditions persist through Thursday in the
Interior. Breezy winds with low clouds and some areas of fog along
the North Slope through the end of the week. Gusty northeasterly
winds along the West Coast increase today and persist through
Thursday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Drying conditions continue through the forecast period.

- Breezy in the Interior Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
  morning with gusts of 25-35 mph. See Special Weather Statement
  for more details.

- Warming temperatures to near average by the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Easterly and northeasterly winds increase today with easterly
  gusts up to 25 mph expected north of the Seward Peninsula and
  northeasterly gusts up to 30 mph expected from the Seward
  Peninsula south.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures across the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Breezy easterly winds persist with stratus and areas of fog.

- Temperatures near normal through the end of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 1028mb high sits in the Beaufort Sea, a 990mb low sits in the
Bering Sea, and a 984mb low moves from south of Sand Point into
Bristol Bay by Thursday. The high weakens and moves southeast into
Canada through Friday while the lows create a broad region of low
pressure over southern Alaska which will slowly lower the surface
pressure across Northern Alaska through Friday. Until then, a
strong pressure gradient between the high and low will bring gusty
northeasterly winds across the region and a general drying trend.
Thursday a weak shortwave feature over the Yukon gets split off
from its parent low in Canada by the moving high and will move
over the eastern Interior Thursday night. This low will produce
showers, but most rain from these showers will be evaporated in
the dry air created from the northeast flow resulting in
sporadically gusty conditions Friday and very limited rainfall.
Saturday will see weak low pressure across the entire region
leading to very benign weather. Sunday sees a high pressure in
eastern Siberia slowly move east into the Chukchi Sea Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and gusty conditions across the Interior through Thursday.
Northeasterly gusts up to 30 mph expected in valleys this
afternoon as solar heating helps mix winds from aloft down as
frequent gusts. Gusts up to 35 mph will be more consistent at
elevation. Consistent northeasterly flow through Thursday will
continue to help dry out the region with minimum RH values near 20
expected Wednesday and Thursday. Surface pressure decreases
Thursday as a weak low moves into the eastern Interior by Thursday
evening which will bring some scattered showers to the Interior
late Thursday through Friday. Dry air at the surface will
significantly limit rainfall with most showers not reaching the
ground and a chance of showers reaching the surface near the
Alaska Range and upper Tanana Valley. Virga aloft may result in
sporadic wind gusts as denser cooler air from the evaporating
rain collapses towards the surface as gusty winds. Temperatures
slowly increase into the weekend with highs near 60 Wednesday and
Thursday increasing into the mid to upper 60s over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River is open from Tanana to Anvik. Ice runs from
upstream of Tanana continue as ice degrades between Ft. Yukon and
Rampart. Intermittent in-place ice remains from Holy Cross down to
the breakup front which was a couple miles downriver of Mountain
Village as of Tuesday afternoon. Ice concentrations are less than
50% at Russian Mission with running chunk ice visible downriver to
Marshall. Ice concentration increases to around 75% between Pilot
Station and Mountain Village, but ice was moving and rotten.

You can see these in the "Hydrologic Outlooks" on our website at
weather.gov/afg and check for your area.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Weak low pressure across the entire forecast area on Saturday will
result in generally benign weather. On Sunday a high pressure
system in eastern Siberia moves east and will slowly increase
surface pressure across the region early next week and create
conditions necessary for southwesterly flow as the area of low
pressure moves further east. This will warm temperatures and
increase chances for rain in the Interior next week. As ridging
continues to build temperatures will continue to increase through
the end of next week and chances begin to increase for
thunderstorms to develop along higher terrain. Confidence is
middling in this pattern developing as there is still time for
these weather systems to evolve differently.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stokes