973
FXAK69 PAFG 121404
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
604 AM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Overall, the rest of this week will continue to be quite
warm with winds on the lighter side as general high pressure ridging
will still be over our entire area of responsibility into the
beginning of next week while weakening starting early next week.
Also, some scattered showers & isolated afternoon & evening
thunderstorms look to continue pop-up over the western Interior,
near the West Coast, then over the western Brooks Range, & the
western North Slope, & then over the central & eastern North Slope &
central & eastern Brooks Range in the afternoons / evenings into the
late in the week from shortwaves of energy passing overhead riding
up & over the ridge of high pressure poised over the state,
originating from an area of lower pressure to the west over the
Bering Sea. The aforementioned things along with the ample daytime
heating will all provide plenty of mechanisms for lift for shower &
thunderstorm development. High temperatures will climb into the 70s
& 80s, generally the highest in the valleys & away from large bodies
of water. Temperatures will continue to rise throughout the rest of
the week. Gradual cooling will start next week as more clouds
/ moisture will move in overhead as our ridge begins to break down &
a stronger low approaches from the Bristol Bay area, which will
moderate our afternoon high temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions continue into the weekend with high
temperatures around 80F likely each day through Monday across the
interior valleys. Mostly clear skies allow low temps to fall into
the 50s each night.

- Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Friday with energy moving over aloft with dry conditions
returning for the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Mostly sunny skies and drier weather with high temperatures
approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to around 80 across the
Western Interior valleys.

- Afternoon and evening shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
expand on Wednesday, then begin to diminish on Thursday & Friday.
Thunderstorm chances generally shift from the Western interior today
toward the Brooks Range by Thursday with rain shower chances &
isolated thunderstorms returning for the end of the weekend into
next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Highs range from near 50 over the Eastern Arctic Coast to the mid
70s near Umiat through the weekend due to southerly downslope flow
off the Brooks Range & Warm Air Advection.

- Afternoon and evening shower and isolated thunderstorm chances
begin Wednesday evening and continue through Friday evening.
Thunderstorm chances generally shift from west to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday Night/...There is general
lower pressure troughing stretching from Siberia through the Bering
Sea & to the western Gulf with 2 low centers, 1 over Siberia &
another over the NW Gulf of Alaska, & a ridge of high pressure over
the state of Alaska. A general clearing, warming, & drying trend has
been taking place over the entire area and it is overall expected to
continue as the ridge of high pressure will generally continue to
dominate through the short term forecast period.

Light winds are in store over the entire region as the pressure
gradient remains rather relaxed. There really isn`t a risk for any
gap winds to develop through the AK Range through the entire week as
there isn`t enough of a southerly component to the pressure gradient
& the upper-level support is not there for it.

High temperatures are expected to continue to warm to the mid-70s
through the lower 80s for the Interior valleys & to mid-to-upper 70s
for the central & western North Slope (Arctic Plains) through the
short term forecast period. Areas near the coast will primarily be
in the 60s. Warm air advection over the region can easily be seen
with the 850mb model temperature forecast. Warm air advection over
the region can be seen through the period with the 850mb model
temperature anomaly forecast being generally between +4 & +9 deg C
over the region, solidifying our warm temperature forecast. The
eastern North Slope & near the eastern Arctic Coast will be the main
exceptions as they will primarily be in the 40s & 50s for highs as
they will continue to see some clouds & general onshore flow through
the short term forecast period around a weakening low pressure
system still meandering to their NE.

Shortwave troughing moves northward between the aforementioned
general low pressure to the west & the ridge of high pressure to the
east, rotates up & over the ridge, bringing afternoon & evening
popcorn scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from a
combination of lift from ample daytime heating & upper level support
over the western Interior & near the West Coast, through the western
Brooks Range, & Western North Slope Wednesday afternoon & evening.
This will push northward & eastward into the rest of the Brooks
Range & North Slope through Friday afternoon / evening. The
support for these showers & thunderstorms is there with support
coming from 500mb PVA, 700mb enhanced moisture/enhanced PW
advecting over that area, enhanced model CAPE values along with
low enough LI for this to be reasonably possible.

&&

.LONG RANGE.../Saturday through Tuesday Night/...Model consensus
looks to be that lower pressure will generally remain established
over the southern Bering Sea region, sending shortwaves of energy
northward around it, up & over the ridge of high pressure poised
over the state, along with continued daytime warm SFC temperatures,
this will all provide ample lift, keeping chances for showers &
isolated thunderstorms especially over the west & north. A 537 dm
low will be setting up over Bristol Bay for early next week,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the
state as the ridge begins to break down / shift eastward, especially
on Tuesday, as the low continues to send waves of vorticity & bands
of elevated moisture northward in the mid-to-upper levels. Model
CAPE & LI values look adequate enough to support continued
convective development, as well. General ridging remains setup &
dominant over the rest of state through the weekend, continuing to
bring with it the decreased cloudiness, warm SFC temperatures, &
drier conditions across our region with well above normal warm air
still overhead with 850mb temperature anomalies reaching around +4
to 9 deg C through the forecast period, keeping high temperatures up
to between the lower 70s to the lower 80s south of the Brooks Range
& into the middle 70s up to around 80 for the inland western 2/3 of
the North Slope (Arctic Plains). Eastern Arctic Coastal areas remain
cooler with high temps in the 50s into the 60s through the end of
the forecast period. Gradual cooling will start next week as more
clouds/moisture will move in overhead as our ridge begins to break
down & a stronger low approaches from the Bristol Bay area, which
will moderate our afternoon high temperatures. Additionally, winds
will continue to remain on the lighter side through the period over
the entire region as the pressure gradient remains on the more
relaxed side through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Through the rest of the week, conditions will
continue to warm across the entire forecast area with high
temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s, getting into the lower 80s for
some areas in the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to well into the 70s across
the western North Slope(Arctic Plains), with warmth spreading
eastward as we progress through the week, getting into the middle
60s to around 70 for only into the inland portions of the eastern
third of the North Slope from Wednesday through the end of the week.
Scattered popcorn showers & isolated thunderstorms from the daytime
heating and energy from trofing pushing northward & then eastward up
& over the ridge of high pressure poised over the state are possible
for the western Interior & westward toward the west coast & then
moving eastward through the Brooks Range & North Slope for late work-
week into the weekend during afternoon & evening hours. Afternoon
minimum RH values will steadily decrease along with the warming
temperatures through the week with eastern portions of the eastern
interior like, Tanana Flats, 40 Mile Country, Northway, & around the
ALCAN HWY (Upper Tanana Valley) dipping to around 25-30% for later
in the week. Winds should remain on the lighter side as the gradient
stays lax. Looking ahead, it looks like another wave bringing a more
enhanced risk of thunderstorms moves into the western interior & the
west coast for early next week, bringing a higher lightning risk to
that area after being hot & mainly dry for several days already.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Chambers
KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SHORT TERM...Chambers
LONG RANGE...Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers