765
FXAK69 PAFG 212229
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
129 PM AKST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter conditions expected through Saturday morning as high
pressure builds across the state. Stratus and fog will linger over
the West Coast and Western Interior until drier air moving in from
the northwest clears them out. The quiet conditions are short-
lived though as another series of fronts take aim at the West
Coast this weekend, spreading significant snow across northern
Alaska early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Areas of light snow continue this afternoon, as well as a light
  freezing drizzle/snow mix near Eielson. This activity is expected
  to taper off as the afternoon and evening progresses.

- Dry, mild, and partly cloudy conditions expected Friday and
  Saturday.

- A front moving across the Interior Sunday into Monday will bring
  the next chance for significant snowfall. Snowfall amounts of 3 to
  7 inches possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Quieter and colder conditions expected late Thursday through
  the weekend, though east winds increase Saturday evening along
  the coast.

- Southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph in the central Brooks
  Range passes Sunday, accompanied by areas of blowing snow.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than a mile at times.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Winter Weather Advisories for Nome, Golovin, and Eastern Norton
  Sound remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for freezing
  drizzle.

- Drier conditions expected tonight and Friday. Temperatures remain
  well above normal, with many areas near the coast seeing high
  temperatures near or above freezing through the weekend.

- The next frontal system looks to bring significant snow to the
  West Coast beginning late Saturday and pushing into the Interior
  on Sunday. Highest snow amounts in favored upslope areas, including
  the Noatak Valley, where 6 to 10 inches are possible. Elsewhere,
  snow amounts of 3 to 7 inches are possible.

- Behind the fronts, strong northerly gales develop through the
  Bering Strait Sunday night through Monday night.

Strong upper level ridging over the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon slowly drops south into the north Pacific this weekend
as a shortwave trough scoots over the northern periphery of the
ridge and an upper level low enters the western Bering Sea. The
upper level low weakens into an open wave as it moves northeast
through the weekend reaching the Bering Strait Sunday night.

At the surface, strong high pressure remains over northern Alaska.
Northwest flow aloft pushes drier air across the region,
resulting in drier and mild conditions through Saturday.
Temperatures cool a few degrees Friday. Fog and stratus will
likely linger into Friday across the West Coast and Western
Interior until the drier air scours it out. The high pressure
weakens through the weekend as a low moves northeast across the
Western Bering pushing a front across the West Coast. Precip
chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening across the Brooks
Range, Arctic Plains and West Coast as the front moves inland.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The extended forecast features the
attempted breakdown of the strong ridge over mainland Alaska. A
weakening upper level low over the Bering Sea weakens into an open
waves as it moves northeast, reaching the Bering Strait Sunday
night. A reinforcing shortwave trough drops southeast out of the
high Arctic phasing with the shortwave over the West Coast,
pushing southeast across the Interior Monday into Tuesday. An
accompanying surface low moves to St Lawrence Island by Sunday
afternoon, with the first of two fronts having already pushed onto
the West Coast. By Monday morning the low has weakened to 1004 mb
as it moves to southern Kotzebue Sound with the second front
moving to the West Coast. As these fronts march east across
northern Alaska, gale force winds develop through the Bering
Strait. In addition to the snow, significant precip accompanies
the fronts. Most inland areas the precip will take the form of
snow, but along the coast from the Seward Peninsula south, a mix
of precip is possible once again.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ839-840.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$