504
FXAK69 PAFG 142301
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough continues to remain
anchored over Alaska through the remainder of the week and the
weekend, keeping chances of rain and sometimes breezy conditions
throughout much of the area, with more isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms along the North Slope. A system and its associated
fronts is currently pushing across the area through the remainder
of Tuesday and into Wednesday. Following it is another organized
wave which arrives Thursday and lasts through the duration of the
week, although this second system will not be as strong as the
first. Precip chances will be trending downwards through the
weekend, with Chinook winds across the Alaska Range and warmer
temperatures for the eastern interior a possibility as we head
into next week.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- More widespread showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. In the
  wake of the front, an isolated storm east of Fairbanks or
  between the 40 mile area and Alaska Range is possible Wednesday
  afternoon. More chances of rain arrive late in the week.

- Winds are increasing through the Alaska Range and will persist
  through Wednesday as a stronger front moves through.

   -Gusts of up to 75 mph in Isabel Pass are likely, prompting a
    High Wind Warning which lasts through Wednesday morning.

   -Up to 65 mph will be possible for Windy Pass, prompting a Wind
    Advisory to be issued to early Wednesday morning as well.
   -Another Wind Advisory has been issued for Delta Junction to
    Wednesday morning for wind gusts as high as 60 mph.

   -A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern
    slopes of the eastern Alaska Range for wind gusts as high as
    45 mph.

-Temperatures remain seasonably cool, with highs in the 60s to
 near 70, with the warmer temperatures towards the ALCan Border
 and Fortymile Country.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the
  end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Highest rain totals now through Thursday are expected to be on
 the southern slopes of the Brooks Range, especially the central
 and eastern Brooks Range, ranging 0.25-0.75" with localized 1.00"
 at higher elevations.

-There is a possibility for a period of freezing drizzle, or even
 freezing rain, Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as
 low temperatures reach the lower 30s.

-Isolated chances of thunderstorms linger today (Tuesday) for the
 Arctic Plains, and especially for the eastern Brooks Range.

-High temperatures in the widespread 60s to possibly near 70 in
 the eastern Arctic Plains today diminish to the 50s and 60s
 beginning Wednesday through the rest of the week.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A longwave upper level trough
looks set to remain persist through the remainder of the week.
Multiple stronger shortwaves rotating around the broad trough axis
have been responsible for rounds of precipitation and windy
conditions across much of the interior. In particular, wind gusts
have approached 65 mph in places like Isabel Pass. Rain totals
for parts of the southern Alaska Range have reached ~4 inches,
with portions of the west coast and western interior approaching
or even exceeding an inch. The enhanced rain and wind with this
system will remain through the day on Wednesday before diminishing
late Wednesday night as the main low moves E into the Yukon;
another 1-2 inches of rain are possible for parts of the southern
Alaska Range, with an additional 0.25 to 0.5 inches for the West
and up to an inch along the Brooks Range. A lingering shortwave
spinoff over the NE Arctic Plains will contribute to a chance for
some freezing rain or drizzle, although any accumulations will be
minor at best.

Although shower chances will diminish on Thursday, mainly for
areas from the western Interior and Yukon Flats down towards the
Alaska Range, the reprieve will be short-lived. Another system is
set to swing up from the the Aleutians. While the actual isobaric
strength of the low - around 1008 mb per GFS guidance, is less
than impressive, the system does have a respectable round of
moisture with it. PWAT values along the eastern flank of the
system will reach ~100 gm/kgs. Although much of the rain with this
next system will be absorbed by the Alaska Range, do expect the
potential for some more widespread rain showers to reach into the
YK Delta on Thursday and the rest of the interior Thursday night
into Friday. For additional information, refer to the long range
forecast discussion.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As a broad longwave trough sets up shop across the
Bering, it will continue to steer moist disturbances into the state,
with the primary question on how far wetting rains can penetrate
into the Eastern Interior.  Anticipate excellent rainfall from
Galena/Ruby southwest to the lower Yukon, with some guidance
highlighting the potential for 0.50 to 1 inch of rain by Thursday
morning. For the Central/Eastern Interior, ensemble 10 th
percentiles suggest near 0.30 inches for Bettles/Allakaket with near
0.05 to 0.10 for the Yukon Flats by Thursday morning.  Shifting
focus into the Tanana, gusts to 60 mph have already been observed
Tuesday but extensive cloud cover has limited RH/ fire potential for
areas downwind of major passes. As winds diminish slowly Wednesday,
isolated thunderstorms are anticipated for the Whites into
Fortymile.

The only game in town right now appears to be the Yukon Flats and
Tok/Northway, where we see some clearer skies and higher potential
for some drying into Tuesday evening; however, light rains arrive
Wednesday limiting the fire environment.

Attention turns to the long range, where we continue to see broad
troughing along the western portion of the state certainly
suggesting continued wetter/cooler conditions for WCZ. There is some
coherent signal for southerly flow and ridging once again across the
Yukon/NW Territories of Canada, bringing the potential for continued
warming and some drying for the Tanana and Yukon Flats. The
limitation is the persistence of the ridge, and anomalously high
moisture riding up from the southeast, with most long-range
ensembles suggesting a quick breakdown with the return of moist SW
flow.

Simply put, while we could see some resurgence of initial attack
activity in the east, most of the state will start to wind down as a
fall pattern begins to take hold.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Another 1-2 inches of rain remain possible for the southern
Alaska Range through early Thursday. Some stream and river rises
are likely, but flooding is not expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Tuesday.

Ensemble guidance has converged on a solution for the early
weekend that does not favor ridging building into the Eastern
Interior, keeping conditions cooler than normal and showery
through the weekend in the region. This should change come next
week, as a majority of both deterministic and ensemble solutions
are in agreement that ridging will build into the Central/Eastern
Interior early next week. Though there are variations in the
position of the ridge in the solutions, most have the ridge axis
tilted northwesterly, vaguely following the Yukon/Northwest
Territories border into the Arctic Ocean. This pattern will result
in southerly flow over the Alaska Range, bringing the potential
for another round of gusty winds in the Alaska Range passes Sunday
through Tuesday. As ridging is able to build into the Central and
Eastern Interior, summer-like conditions will return with highs
in the 70s and isolated thunderstorm activity in the Interior.
Troughing is expected to remain over the western half of the state
through the end of the period, keeping more fall-like conditions,
including cooler temperatures and showery/windy conditions on the
West Coast and in the Western Interior through at least the
beginning of next week.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Spann
Park - Fire Weather Discussion
Schlezinger - Extended Discussion